Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Unum Group has reported a commendable first quarter for 2024, signaling a robust start to the year with mixed outcomes that illustrate both strengths and areas requiring attention.</li><li>The company emphasized its achievement of a 13.6% increase in earnings per share, reaching a record $2.12 per share.</li><li>This growth was supported by a significant $350 million in statutory earnings, alongside a 6.6% rise in core operations premium growth.</li></ul>

Unum Group has reported a commendable first quarter for 2024, signaling a robust start to the year with mixed outcomes that illustrate both strengths and areas requiring attention.The company emphasized its achievement of a 13.6% increase in earnings per share, reaching a record $2.12 per share.This growth was supported by a significant $350 million in statutory earnings, alongside a 6.6% rise in core operations premium growth.

Unum Group: Initiation of Coverage -  Expansion Of Service Capabilities & 3 Critical Growth Drivers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210903-1443045/1443045_sept2021-546-shuf-rebal.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a> </li>
</ul>Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... <ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a></li>
</ul>Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.<div class="content-highlight">
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
</div>While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold.

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the announcement from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...

Match Group Inc (MTCH US) 

Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US) 

Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US) 
Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... 

Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US) 

Unum Group (UNM US) 
National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)
Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold. 

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance:  3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.</li>
<li>Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.</li>
</ul>


Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.


Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

<ul>
<li>Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).</li>
<li>We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs</li>
</ul>


Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.
As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).
We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs


Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

United States

Unum Group provides group disability and special risk insurance.  The Company provides disability insurance, group life insurance, and payroll-deducted voluntary benefits offered to employees at their worksites.

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Unum Group (UNM US)

Unum Group: Initiation of Coverage - Expansion Of Service Capabilities & 3 Critical Growth Drivers

Unum Group has reported a commendable first quarter for 2024, signaling a robust start to the year with mixed outcomes that illustrate both...

Baptista Research

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance: 3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

The S&P500 Quarterly Review is here. 3 in and 3 out. $14bn a side as of now. I expect the DELETIONS are more interesting though the headlines will...

Travis Lundy

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

A consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Our view since late Sept remains unchanged: if $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish, as most signs point to this being a...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

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