European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A CMA's Phase One investigation period began on 23 January to investigate whether the deal may result in a substantial lessening of competition. Deadline for the decision is 17 March.</li>
<li>EMIS anticipates closing late Q1/early Q2 2023. The Permitted Final Dividend amounts to 21.1p. No final dividend has yet been declared, although theoretically it could happen around 17 March.</li>
<li>Spread is 2.96%/29.39% (gross/annualised), assuming settlement by 15 April, as good as it gets for a stock with an average daily turnover of c.GBP7 million in the European space.</li>
</ul>


A CMA's Phase One investigation period began on 23 January to investigate whether the deal may result in a substantial lessening of competition. Deadline for the decision is 17 March.
EMIS anticipates closing late Q1/early Q2 2023. The Permitted Final Dividend amounts to 21.1p. No final dividend has yet been declared, although theoretically it could happen around 17 March.
Spread is 2.96%/29.39% (gross/annualised), assuming settlement by 15 April, as good as it gets for a stock with an average daily turnover of c.GBP7 million in the European space.


UnitedHealth/​EMIS: Estimated Calendar, Spread

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UnitedHealth Group's recent drawdown presents a lucrative investment opportunity to value-seeking investors.</li>
<li>The stock's year-to-date slump is likely due to the financial markets' recent risk-on appetite and the anticipation that insurance premiums could suffer from softer pricing in 2023.</li>
<li>Despite a recent financial market recovery and a comprehensive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/search?q=UNH/earnings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earnings beat</a>, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UNH</a></span>) stock finds itself lingering among the year-to-date losers.</li>
</ul>


UnitedHealth Group's recent drawdown presents a lucrative investment opportunity to value-seeking investors.
The stock's year-to-date slump is likely due to the financial markets' recent risk-on appetite and the anticipation that insurance premiums could suffer from softer pricing in 2023.
Despite a recent financial market recovery and a comprehensive earnings beat, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's (NYSE:UNH) stock finds itself lingering among the year-to-date losers.


UnitedHealth: Take Advantage Of Its Stock's Recent Drawdown

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.</li>
<li>We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ</li>
<li>With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.
We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ
With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.


Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US Value funds rotate in to Health Care, pushing allocations to their highest levels on record.</li>
<li>The average Health Care allocation stands at 18.25%, with 71.4% of Value managers overweight at +3.11% above benchmark.  Health Care has become <strong>the</strong> conviction sector holding among US Value managers.</li>
<li>The most widely held stocks in the sector are Cigna Corp and Unitedhealth Group, owned by 55.7% and 52.9% of Value managers respectively.</li>
</ul>


US Value funds rotate in to Health Care, pushing allocations to their highest levels on record.
The average Health Care allocation stands at 18.25%, with 71.4% of Value managers overweight at +3.11% above benchmark.  Health Care has become the conviction sector holding among US Value managers.
The most widely held stocks in the sector are Cigna Corp and Unitedhealth Group, owned by 55.7% and 52.9% of Value managers respectively.


<ul>
<li>Giant UnitedHealth offers 1,925p, in cash (implied equity value of £1,243 million, implied EV of £1,185 million). This represents: 6.5x EV/Fwd Revenue, 20.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 31.7x Fwd PE (source: I/B/E/S).</li>
<li>The offer is pitched above peer's multiples, which coupled with a 49% premium, should be enough to convince any reluctant shareholder to tender.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 2.9%, quite good for a highly likely deal in the European space (c. 16% estimated annual return assuming settlement takes place on 8 September).</li>
</ul>


Giant UnitedHealth offers 1,925p, in cash (implied equity value of £1,243 million, implied EV of £1,185 million). This represents: 6.5x EV/Fwd Revenue, 20.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 31.7x Fwd PE (source: I/B/E/S).
The offer is pitched above peer's multiples, which coupled with a 49% premium, should be enough to convince any reluctant shareholder to tender.
Gross spread is 2.9%, quite good for a highly likely deal in the European space (c. 16% estimated annual return assuming settlement takes place on 8 September).


UnitedHealth/EMIS: Agreed Offer, Estimated Calendar, Spread

United States

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated owns and manages organized health systems. The Company provides employers products and resources to plan and administer employee benefit programs. UnitedHealth serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

UnitedHealth Group (UNH UN)

UnitedHealth/EMIS: Estimated Calendar, Spread

The CMA said it will investigate whether the deal may result in a substantial lessening of competition. Deadline for Phase One decision is 17...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UnitedHealth: Take Advantage Of Its Stock's Recent Drawdown

The stock's year-to-date slump is likely due to the financial markets' recent risk-on appetite and the anticipation that insurance premiums could...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP violating 2.5-yr uptrend; a break below $32.50 would send commodity prices much lower, & would be deflationary. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

US Value Funds Rotate in to Health Care

US Value managers have made an active rotation in to the Health Care sector, pushing allocations to their highest levels on record.

Steven Holden

UnitedHealth/EMIS: Agreed Offer, Estimated Calendar, Spread

Giant UnitedHealth should comfortably be able to acquire EMIS out of cash holdings. The deal should happen quickly to avoid EMIS paying dividends....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UnitedHealth/​EMIS: Estimated Calendar, Spread

The CMA said it will investigate whether the deal may result in a substantial lessening of competition. Deadline for Phase One decision is 17...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UnitedHealth: Take Advantage Of Its Stock's Recent Drawdown

The stock's year-to-date slump is likely due to the financial markets' recent risk-on appetite and the anticipation that insurance premiums could...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP violating 2.5-yr uptrend; a break below $32.50 would send commodity prices much lower, & would be deflationary. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

US Value Funds Rotate in to Health Care

US Value managers have made an active rotation in to the Health Care sector, pushing allocations to their highest levels on record.

Steven Holden

UnitedHealth/EMIS: Agreed Offer, Estimated Calendar, Spread

Giant UnitedHealth should comfortably be able to acquire EMIS out of cash holdings. The deal should happen quickly to avoid EMIS paying dividends....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UnitedHealth/EMIS: Estimated Calendar, Spread