Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.</li>
<li>Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.</li>
<li>With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.</li>
</ul>


Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.
Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.
With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.


Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>UnitedHealth Group has reported its first quarter financial results for 2024, which reflect the resilience and adaptive capacity of the organization amidst significant challenges, most notably the Change Healthcare cyberattack.</li><li>In addressing the cyberattack, UnitedHealth Group has showcased robust crisis management capabilities, responding swiftly to ensure continuity in care provision and financial support for affected healthcare providers.</li><li>The financial impact of the cyberattack has been substantial, with approximately $870 million in total impact to the quarter and an anticipated full-year impact in the range of $1.15 to $1.35 per share.</li></ul>

UnitedHealth Group has reported its first quarter financial results for 2024, which reflect the resilience and adaptive capacity of the organization amidst significant challenges, most notably the Change Healthcare cyberattack.In addressing the cyberattack, UnitedHealth Group has showcased robust crisis management capabilities, responding swiftly to ensure continuity in care provision and financial support for affected healthcare providers.The financial impact of the cyberattack has been substantial, with approximately $870 million in total impact to the quarter and an anticipated full-year impact in the range of $1.15 to $1.35 per share.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated: Initiation of Coverage - A Dive Into The Integrated Strategy Of This Healthcare Industry Leader! - Major Drivers

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.</li><li>Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.</li><li>This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. </li></ul>

Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. 

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> is poised for multi-year growth through strong market demand for its technically superior guidewires, market leadership positioning, new product launches, and direct marketing initiatives.</li>
<li>In FY24, Asahi Intecc aims to achieve revenue of ¥100B (+11% YoY), a significant milestone. The company targets revenue of ¥110B and an operating profit margin of 23–25% in FY26.</li>
<li>Asahi Intecc is expected to be a continued beneficiary of global procedure volume recovery. The company is likely to achieve its medium-term business plan ahead of schedule.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) is poised for multi-year growth through strong market demand for its technically superior guidewires, market leadership positioning, new product launches, and direct marketing initiatives.
In FY24, Asahi Intecc aims to achieve revenue of ¥100B (+11% YoY), a significant milestone. The company targets revenue of ¥110B and an operating profit margin of 23–25% in FY26.
Asahi Intecc is expected to be a continued beneficiary of global procedure volume recovery. The company is likely to achieve its medium-term business plan ahead of schedule.


2024 High Conviction: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Procedure Volume Recovery to Accelerate Growth

Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

<ul><li>The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)</li><li>Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.</li><li>This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.</li></ul>

The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

United States

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated owns and manages organized health systems in the United States and internationally.  The Company provides employers products and resources to plan and administer employee benefit programs.  UnitedHealth also serves the health needs of older Americans, provides specialized care services, and provides health care information and research to providers and payers.

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Unitedhealth Group (UNH US)

Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; New Risk-Off Signals Suggest Pullback in $SPX and $QQQ to Continue, looking for pullbacks to 5100-5191...

Vermilion Research

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated: Initiation of Coverage - A Dive Into The Integrated Strategy Of This Healthcare Industry Leader! - Major Drivers

UnitedHealth Group has reported its first quarter financial results for 2024, which reflect the resilience and adaptive capacity of the...

Baptista Research

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

2024 High Conviction: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- Procedure Volume Recovery to Accelerate Growth

Asahi Intecc is poised for double-digit sales growth through FY26, driven by strong market demand for guidewires, market leadership positioning,...

Tina Banerjee

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022. This article is a repeat of...

Value Investing

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