Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Key supports: 4545 on S&amp;P 500, $383 on NDX (QQQ), $208 on Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on MicroCaps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), $54 on MSCI ACWI exUS (ACWX)</li>
<li>If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction.</li>
</ul>


The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market.
Key supports: 4545 on S&amp;P 500, $383 on NDX (QQQ), $208 on Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on MicroCaps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), $54 on MSCI ACWI exUS (ACWX)
If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports; Buying Consumer Discretionary Stocks

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Base case call to buy the SPX/select risk in Asia near SPX 4,500 for a rally sequence into mid-December where we see a top and secondary decline into late December.</li>
<li>Key resistance lies at 4,650/70 which is a barrier that capped recent rally attempts. This will define risk in Asia and Europe next week.</li>
<li>SPX daily RSI resistance is the ideal fresh sell zone in mid-December. Risk concerns stems from Omicron, year-end position/tax and euphoria unwinding.</li>
</ul>


Base case call to buy the SPX/select risk in Asia near SPX 4,500 for a rally sequence into mid-December where we see a top and secondary decline into late December.
Key resistance lies at 4,650/70 which is a barrier that capped recent rally attempts. This will define risk in Asia and Europe next week.
SPX daily RSI resistance is the ideal fresh sell zone in mid-December. Risk concerns stems from Omicron, year-end position/tax and euphoria unwinding.


Rally into Mid December - SPX Pivot the Defining Line

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Barring the spike at the start of the pandemic, US rates volatility is close to the upper end of the 10-year range, which does not bode well for EM rates.</li>
<li>EM rates have sold off relative to the US at a much faster pace than in other similar episodes on a combination of fiscal deterioration, monetary tightening, and political noise.</li>
<li>While the spread of EM local rates to the US is extremely wide, it is prudent to be selective and focus on relative-value and curve trades to minimize risks.</li>
</ul>


Barring the spike at the start of the pandemic, US rates volatility is close to the upper end of the 10-year range, which does not bode well for EM rates.
EM rates have sold off relative to the US at a much faster pace than in other similar episodes on a combination of fiscal deterioration, monetary tightening, and political noise.
While the spread of EM local rates to the US is extremely wide, it is prudent to be selective and focus on relative-value and curve trades to minimize risks.


EM Local Rates in the Line of Fire as US Rates Volatility Spikes Higher

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>US 10yr yield is knocking on the 1.69% breakout pivot at a time when the NDX displays topping signals providing some clarity for risk in December.</li>
<li>NDX RSI bear divergence is maturing and lacking a final new high to complete a high conviction top signal (December).</li>
<li>The NDX wave 5 high sending a warning signal of the SPX topping in mid-December for a pullback cycle into early Q1.</li>
</ul>


US 10yr yield is knocking on the 1.69% breakout pivot at a time when the NDX displays topping signals providing some clarity for risk in December.
NDX RSI bear divergence is maturing and lacking a final new high to complete a high conviction top signal (December).
The NDX wave 5 high sending a warning signal of the SPX topping in mid-December for a pullback cycle into early Q1.


Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Flattening Treasury yield curves, particularly at the back-end, are rarely bullish for risk assets. </li>
<li>When combined, as now, with a steepening front-end they warn of upcoming credit problems.  </li>
<li>Bonds are telling us that economies are breaking-down.  Low ‘real’ carry compromises the long-term outlook for bonds, but we must not ignore their warning message for 2022  </li>
</ul>


Flattening Treasury yield curves, particularly at the back-end, are rarely bullish for risk assets. 
When combined, as now, with a steepening front-end they warn of upcoming credit problems.  
Bonds are telling us that economies are breaking-down.  Low ‘real’ carry compromises the long-term outlook for bonds, but we must not ignore their warning message for 2022  


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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports; Buying Consumer Discretionary Stocks

Market dynamics have deteriorated along with the major averages, and many are testing critical supports; as long as supports hold we expect more...

Vermilion Research

Rally into Mid December - SPX Pivot the Defining Line

Base case call to buy the SPX/select risk in Asia near SPX 4,500 for a rally sequence into mid-December where we see a top and secondary decline...

Thomas Schroeder

EM Local Rates in the Line of Fire as US Rates Volatility Spikes Higher

With EM rates selling off relative to the US at a much faster pace than in other similar episodes in the past, it is prudent to focus on relative...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Yield Trajectory and NDX Wave 5 Warning

US 10yr yield is knocking on the 1.69% breakout pivot at a time when the NDX displays topping signals providing some clarity for risk in December.

Thomas Schroeder

A Wonkish Warning From Bonds For 2022

Equity investors are ignoring the warning message from World government bond markets for 2022. A steep front-end and flatter back-end of the term...

Michael J. Howell

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