Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).</li>
<li>The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.</li>
<li>If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership


Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.</li>
<li>Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.</li>
</ul>


Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report removed 0.05-0.06 pct.</li><li>points from overall MoM price pressures in May compared to the report in April, where the same category rose 1.5% on the month.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report removed 0.05-0.06 pct.points from overall MoM price pressures in May compared to the report in April, where the same category rose 1.5% on the month.

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

<ul><li>The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected while core came in to the soft side of 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected.</li><li>Our anticipation of rising goods-flation didn’t play out fully, and while shelter re-accelerated as we forecasted, core services disinflated heavily in May due to auto insurance costs declining.</li><li>The main culprit behind the dovish CPI report was the sudden drop in Motor Vehicle Insurance (chart 2.b), which has so far been printing at trend MoM levels around 1-1.5%, lifting headline inflation by 0.03-0.05% consecutively.</li></ul>

The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected while core came in to the soft side of 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected.Our anticipation of rising goods-flation didn’t play out fully, and while shelter re-accelerated as we forecasted, core services disinflated heavily in May due to auto insurance costs declining.The main culprit behind the dovish CPI report was the sudden drop in Motor Vehicle Insurance (chart 2.b), which has so far been printing at trend MoM levels around 1-1.5%, lifting headline inflation by 0.03-0.05% consecutively.

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.</li>
<li>False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.</li>
<li>IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.


Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report...

Steno Research

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected...

Steno Research

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report...

Steno Research

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected...

Steno Research

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

​The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...