Freelance Research Analyst

Tay Hock Meng

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The latest Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) final statistics for the office property sector for 2015 looks set to be another bummer for 2016 with a rise of 9.4% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) in pipeline supply to 10.69 million sq ft coming in during 4Q2015 and perhaps more in 2016. If any of Insight providers are users of Bloomberg, you might have come across the “Gadfly” article by Andy Mukherjee this week that talked about how developers have outgrown their development of office spaces in Singapore without thinking about any possibility of global economic slowdown ahead.

The latest Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) final statistics for the office property sector for 2015 looks set to be another bummer for 2016 with a rise of 9.4% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) in pipeline supply to 10.69 million sq ft coming in during 4Q2015 and perhaps more in 2016. If any of Insight providers are users of Bloomberg, you might have come across the “Gadfly” article by Andy Mukherjee this week that talked about how developers have outgrown their development of office spaces in Singapore without thinking about any possibility of global economic slowdown ahead.

Gloomy Forecast Ahead for Office Property Sector in Singapore

Asia's Leading Online Property Group, PropertyGuru

Bjorn Sprengers

Asia's Leading Online Property Group

PropertyGuru

PropertyGuru Pte Ltd owns and operates a real estate property information website. The Company offers facilities to search for condominiums, apartments, Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, serviced apartments, houses, and commercial properties to rent and buy in Singapore.

It’s time to take a look back on how the real estate market performed in 2015. Although there are some early signs of recovery, sellers should not be rejoicing yet:<ul><li>Right pricing was the key to moving projects in 2015</li><li>Transaction volumes have improved in 2015 for the private non-landed segment, but prices are continuing their decline</li><li>While the income ceiling for ECs were raised, it was only when developers gave bigger discounts that we saw some of the older EC projects moving</li><li>Decline in HDB resale pricing slowed down and volumes have picked up, but its too early to declare a recovery</li></ul>

It’s time to take a look back on how the real estate market performed in 2015. Although there are some early signs of recovery, sellers should not be rejoicing yet:Right pricing was the key to moving projects in 2015Transaction volumes have improved in 2015 for the private non-landed segment, but prices are continuing their declineWhile the income ceiling for ECs were raised, it was only when developers gave bigger discounts that we saw some of the older EC projects movingDecline in HDB resale pricing slowed down and volumes have picked up, but its too early to declare a recovery

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

There are plenty of concerns for DBS, as well as peer Singapore banks. But we will keep the focus here on DBS.<ul><li>Firstly there is the bank’s China lending, where all is not well.</li><li>Second is the bank’s relatively high level of market risk, where regulations will make this more costly and where impairments can surprise.  </li><li>Thirdly there is energy, commodity, or oil-related lending, given the sharp drop in prices of late. </li><li>Fourthly, DBS in India is loss-making.</li><li>Finally, the bank is highly exposed to off-balance sheet risk.</li></ul>

There are plenty of concerns for DBS, as well as peer Singapore banks. But we will keep the focus here on DBS.Firstly there is the bank’s China lending, where all is not well.Second is the bank’s relatively high level of market risk, where regulations will make this more costly and where impairments can surprise.  Thirdly there is energy, commodity, or oil-related lending, given the sharp drop in prices of late. Fourthly, DBS in India is loss-making.Finally, the bank is highly exposed to off-balance sheet risk.

The latest 4Q2015 private housing flash estimates from Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices for overall private residential properties dipped by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (qoq), a smaller decline than the 1.3% qoq decline in 3Q2015. For the whole of 2015, private property prices dipped by 3.7%, and are smaller than the 4% decline in 2014. These numbers are increasingly showing a gradual recovery in private property prices in Singapore, but not all market observers have signalled that it is the end of the gloom and doom that dominates in the overall private property market since 2013.

The latest 4Q2015 private housing flash estimates from Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices for overall private residential properties dipped by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (qoq), a smaller decline than the 1.3% qoq decline in 3Q2015. For the whole of 2015, private property prices dipped by 3.7%, and are smaller than the 4% decline in 2014. These numbers are increasingly showing a gradual recovery in private property prices in Singapore, but not all market observers have signalled that it is the end of the gloom and doom that dominates in the overall private property market since 2013.

Is the Worst over for Private Residential Housing in Singapore

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Singapore

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

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UOB (UOB SP)

Gloomy Forecast Ahead for Office Property Sector in Singapore

The latest Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) final statistics for the office property sector for 2015 looks set to be another bummer for 2016...

Tay Hock Meng

Property Market Retrospective 2015

It’s time to take a look back on how the real estate market performed in 2015. Although there are some early signs of recovery, sellers should not...

PropertyGuru

A Myriad of Concerns for DBS

There are plenty of concerns for DBS, as well as peer Singapore banks. But we will keep the focus here on DBS. Firstly there is the bank’s China...

Daniel Tabbush

Is the Worst over for Private Residential Housing in Singapore

The latest 4Q2015 private housing flash estimates from Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices for overall private residential properties...

Tay Hock Meng

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

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