Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 54.3%/ 41.7%/ NT$8.14/ 25.8% in 3Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18.8-19.6bn/ 51.5-53.5%; OPM: 39.5-41.5% in 4Q23F guidance.</li>
<li>Moving into 4Q23F, TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. </li>
<li>TSMC anticipates 2024F to experience healthy growth, and TSMC has noticed a resurgence in demand for smartphones and PCs.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 54.3%/ 41.7%/ NT$8.14/ 25.8% in 3Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18.8-19.6bn/ 51.5-53.5%; OPM: 39.5-41.5% in 4Q23F guidance.
Moving into 4Q23F, TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. 
TSMC anticipates 2024F to experience healthy growth, and TSMC has noticed a resurgence in demand for smartphones and PCs.


TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Lukewarm 4Q23F Outlook, and Hope to Experience a Healthy Growth in 2024F.

<ul>
<li>We change our stance to be a bit bullish for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>.</li>
<li>In 4Q23F, MediaTek's outlook is getting a bit stronger upside.</li>
<li>The Smartphone market is turning positive, but it's too early to claim a fully rebound.</li>
</ul>


We change our stance to be a bit bullish for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT).
In 4Q23F, MediaTek's outlook is getting a bit stronger upside.
The Smartphone market is turning positive, but it's too early to claim a fully rebound.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Smartphone Is Turning a Bit Stronger

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 4Q23F outlook is still coming down, but it’s not as worse as we originally expected.</li>
<li>Samsung is staying a very stable demand for 28nm capacity in UMC.</li>
<li>Based on our estimates, the wafer ASP is clearly increasing from 2Q22 to 4Q23F, despite a decline in demand from 4Q22 until now.</li>
</ul>


The 4Q23F outlook is still coming down, but it’s not as worse as we originally expected.
Samsung is staying a very stable demand for 28nm capacity in UMC.
Based on our estimates, the wafer ASP is clearly increasing from 2Q22 to 4Q23F, despite a decline in demand from 4Q22 until now.


UMC (2303.TT): We Estimate The Outlook Is Down a Bit to Lower QoQ in 4Q23F

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated holding worth USD638.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,177mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated holding worth USD638.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,177mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Elec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Elec.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Electronics

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Lukewarm 4Q23F Outlook, and Hope to Experience a Healthy Growth in 2024F.

TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. TSMC anticipates 2024F to...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): Smartphone Is Turning a Bit Stronger

We change our stance to be slightly bullish for MediaTek. In 4Q23F, MediaTek's outlook is becoming stronger. The smartphone market is turning...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT): We Estimate The Outlook Is Down a Bit to Lower QoQ in 4Q23F

The 4Q23F outlook is coming down, but it’s not as worse as we originally expected. Samsung stays a very stable demand for 28nm capacity in UMC....

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlight foreign holding changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Electronics

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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