Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>It's an exciting 1Q24 result that revenue and GM beat the prior guidance.</li>
<li>The 2Q24 outlook appears to be better than 1Q24, with revenue expected to increase by 5% to 7% QoQ and GM by 9% to 11%.</li>
<li>We consider the primary bottleneck is the embargo of EUV machines to China from the Netherlands.</li>
</ul>


It's an exciting 1Q24 result that revenue and GM beat the prior guidance.
The 2Q24 outlook appears to be better than 1Q24, with revenue expected to increase by 5% to 7% QoQ and GM by 9% to 11%.
We consider the primary bottleneck is the embargo of EUV machines to China from the Netherlands.


SMIC (981.HK): 1Q24 Outlook Was Improved, and The 2Q24 Outlook Appears to Be Better than 1Q24.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: Premium Fell and Then Rebounded, Now +15.6%; Can Consider Shorting Again</li>
<li>ASE: Falls to +12.3%; Wait for Higher Level Before Considering a New Short Again</li>
<li>ChipMOS: -0.6% Discount; Massing of Short Interest Right Ahead of Earnings</li>
</ul>


TSMC: Premium Fell and Then Rebounded, Now +15.6%; Can Consider Shorting Again
ASE: Falls to +12.3%; Wait for Higher Level Before Considering a New Short Again
ChipMOS: -0.6% Discount; Massing of Short Interest Right Ahead of Earnings


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Spread Slumps Then Fully Rebounds; Shorts Spiking Ahead of IMOS Results

<ul>
<li>1Q24 revenue and GM are in line, but operating income at 24.3% was 1% below consensus.</li>
<li>GlobalWafers anticipates revenue in 2024 will likely be similar to 2023, which means 1H24 revenue could account for 45% of the 2024 yearly revenue.</li>
<li>The planned dividend payout for 2024 is NT$19.0, with NT$8.0 from 1H23 and NT$11 from 2H23. </li>
</ul>


1Q24 revenue and GM are in line, but operating income at 24.3% was 1% below consensus.
GlobalWafers anticipates revenue in 2024 will likely be similar to 2023, which means 1H24 revenue could account for 45% of the 2024 yearly revenue.
The planned dividend payout for 2024 is NT$19.0, with NT$8.0 from 1H23 and NT$11 from 2H23. 


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Demand Was Weaker in 1H24F, and We Hope It Will Be Better in 2H24F.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 2Q24 revenue outlook is NT$24.4-25.5bn, which was below Bloomberg consensuses NTD$26.45bn. </li>
<li>The company sees more aggressive stocking for TVs in 2Q24, but smartphone demand is soft in 2Q24.  </li>
<li>The dividend payout rate has been maintained at 80-85% over the past few years, with no significant changes expected.  </li>
</ul>


The 2Q24 revenue outlook is NT$24.4-25.5bn, which was below Bloomberg consensuses NTD$26.45bn. 
The company sees more aggressive stocking for TVs in 2Q24, but smartphone demand is soft in 2Q24.  
The dividend payout rate has been maintained at 80-85% over the past few years, with no significant changes expected.  


Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q24 Sales Inline; 2Q24F Sales Guidance Below Consensuses

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD86.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD86.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 3rd): Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

SMIC (981.HK): 1Q24 Outlook Was Improved, and The 2Q24 Outlook Appears to Be Better than 1Q24.

Exciting 1Q24 results show revenue and GM surpassing guidance, with optimistic 2Q24 outlook despite EUV machine embargo impacting China.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Spread Slumps Then Fully Rebounds; Shorts Spiking Ahead of IMOS Results

Potential trades to consider in TSMC and CHT. Notable surge in short interest right ahead of IMOS earnings today; with the shorts be proven right?

Vincent Fernando, CFA

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Demand Was Weaker in 1H24F, and We Hope It Will Be Better in 2H24F.

GlobalWafers' 1Q24 results is lower operating income than consensus. Anticipates steady revenue in 2024, with 1H24 accounting for 45% of yearly...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q24 Sales Inline; 2Q24F Sales Guidance Below Consensuses

Company's 2Q24 revenue outlook falls below expectations due to soft smartphone demand, despite aggressive stocking for TVs. Dividend payout rate...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 3rd): Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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SMIC (981.HK): 1Q24 Outlook Was Improved, and The 2Q24 Outlook Appears to Be Better than 1Q24.

​Exciting 1Q24 results show revenue and GM surpassing guidance, with optimistic 2Q24 outlook despite EUV machine embargo impacting China.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Spread Slumps Then Fully Rebounds; Shorts Spiking Ahead of IMOS Results

Potential trades to consider in TSMC and CHT. Notable surge in short interest right ahead of IMOS earnings today; with the shorts be proven right?

Vincent Fernando, CFA

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Demand Was Weaker in 1H24F, and We Hope It Will Be Better in 2H24F.

​GlobalWafers' 1Q24 results is lower operating income than consensus. Anticipates steady revenue in 2024, with 1H24 accounting for 45% of yearly...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q24 Sales Inline; 2Q24F Sales Guidance Below Consensuses

​Company's 2Q24 revenue outlook falls below expectations due to soft smartphone demand, despite aggressive stocking for TVs. Dividend payout rate...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 3rd): Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Exciting 1Q24 results show revenue and GM surpassing guidance, with optimistic 2Q24 outlook despite EUV machine embargo impacting China.

GlobalWafers' 1Q24 results is lower operating income than consensus. Anticipates steady revenue in 2024, with 1H24 accounting for 45% of yearly...

Company's 2Q24 revenue outlook falls below expectations due to soft smartphone demand, despite aggressive stocking for TVs. Dividend payout rate...