European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unipol-gruppo-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21235:1" rel="noopener">Unipol Gruppo S.p.A (UNI IM)</a> has reached 95% of the share capital of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unipolsai-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21236:1" rel="noopener">UnipolSai SpA (US IM)</a>, therefore the conditions for the squeeze-out are met.</li>
<li>The dividend-adjusted offer price is €2.535. Unipol has three months from 26 April to implement the squeeze-out. The holding discount, as expected, has closed.</li>
<li>Spread to cash offer is 0.51%/3.85% (gross, annualized assuming settlement of squeeze-out by 26 July). The share alternative is now trading at a premium.</li>
</ul>



Unipol Gruppo S.p.A (UNI IM) has reached 95% of the share capital of UnipolSai SpA (US IM), therefore the conditions for the squeeze-out are met.
The dividend-adjusted offer price is €2.535. Unipol has three months from 26 April to implement the squeeze-out. The holding discount, as expected, has closed.
Spread to cash offer is 0.51%/3.85% (gross, annualized assuming settlement of squeeze-out by 26 July). The share alternative is now trading at a premium.


Unipol Gruppo/UnipolSai: Squeeze-Out and Spread

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unipol-gruppo-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21235:1" rel="noopener">Unipol Gruppo S.p.A (UNI IM)</a> offers €2.7/share to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unipolsai-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21236:1" rel="noopener">UnipolSai SpA (US IM)</a>, for an implied €7.64 billion equity value, 12.6% premium, in an awaited move to simplify the group's structure.</li>
<li>If taken in full, would be worth €1,126.9 million. The share alternative is 3 UNI MI x 10 US IM, and does not account for the huge discount/NAV of Unipol.</li>
<li>Gross spread is: 1.63%/21.5% (cash/share alternative respectively). Annualised return of cash offer is 7.51%. I would expect the share alternative to progressively close the discount.</li>
</ul>



Unipol Gruppo S.p.A (UNI IM) offers €2.7/share to buy out UnipolSai SpA (US IM), for an implied €7.64 billion equity value, 12.6% premium, in an awaited move to simplify the group's structure.
If taken in full, would be worth €1,126.9 million. The share alternative is 3 UNI MI x 10 US IM, and does not account for the huge discount/NAV of Unipol.
Gross spread is: 1.63%/21.5% (cash/share alternative respectively). Annualised return of cash offer is 7.51%. I would expect the share alternative to progressively close the discount.


Unipol Gruppo/UnipolSai: Take the Stock Instead

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A new tool highlights which TSE companies have disclosed a policy/consideration; sometimes referred to as the "name and shame" list. In practice, more "name" than "shame". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is trading rich to its NAV. And the simple ratio (JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>) is the highest level outside the 2008 GFC. </li>
<li>This is a rubbish Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>. Given how shareholders voted at last year's AGM, expect this Scheme to be voted down. Avoid.</li>
</ul>


A new tool highlights which TSE companies have disclosed a policy/consideration; sometimes referred to as the "name and shame" list. In practice, more "name" than "shame". 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is trading rich to its NAV. And the simple ratio (JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ)) is the highest level outside the 2008 GFC. 
This is a rubbish Offer for Asia Cement China (743 HK). Given how shareholders voted at last year's AGM, expect this Scheme to be voted down. Avoid.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

<ul>
<li>There is no suggestion of precondition breach attached to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>'s impairment losses. </li>
<li>Seven Group, now holding 71.6%, has returned to the well, and made a cash/scrip Offer for shares not owned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral (BLD AU)</a>, with certain tendering thresholds triggering more cash.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itoki-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18032:1" rel="noopener">Itoki Corp (7972 JP)</a>'s mega ToSTNeT-3 buyback is now done.</li>
</ul>


There is no suggestion of precondition breach attached to Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)'s impairment losses. 
Seven Group, now holding 71.6%, has returned to the well, and made a cash/scrip Offer for shares not owned in Boral (BLD AU), with certain tendering thresholds triggering more cash.

Itoki Corp (7972 JP)'s mega ToSTNeT-3 buyback is now done.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>CASA’s enhanced offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credito-valtellinese-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21175:1" rel="noopener">Credito Valtellinese SpA (CVAL IM)</a> confirms the appetite for M&amp;A in Southern Europe, and Italy in particular</li>
<li>We expect Italian M&amp;A to be largely intra-country, as the key factors driving consolidation is the need for greater domestic scale given the lower for longer interest rates, especially in Europe, as well as the march of digital banking globally</li>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intesa-sanpaolo-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21200:1" rel="noopener">Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)</a>-UBI, and now potentially the conclusion of CASA Italia-CreVal, the focus is on the future of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-monte-dei-paschi-di-siena" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21162:1" rel="noopener">Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)</a> </li>
<li>A combination between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bper-banca-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21165:1" rel="noopener">BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM)</a> now seems less likely; this implies that Banco BPM is a potential contender, once again, to combine with BMPS; the latter has largely de-risked its balance sheet, even if its core capital ratio is low</li>
<li>We would see a BPM-BMPS union as a major positive catalyst for a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a>  re-rating; even if Unicredit were to acquire BMPS, we believe that, at current valuations, a lot of the risks are discounted</li>
<li>Risks to our positive Unicredit view include Unicredit’s acquisition of BMPS on unfavourable terms, as well as worse than expected organic performance of revenue growth, given the challenging interest rate environment</li>
</ul>


CASA’s enhanced offer for Credito Valtellinese SpA (CVAL IM) confirms the appetite for M&amp;A in Southern Europe, and Italy in particular
We expect Italian M&amp;A to be largely intra-country, as the key factors driving consolidation is the need for greater domestic scale given the lower for longer interest rates, especially in Europe, as well as the march of digital banking globally
After Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)-UBI, and now potentially the conclusion of CASA Italia-CreVal, the focus is on the future of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM) 
A combination between Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM) and BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM) now seems less likely; this implies that Banco BPM is a potential contender, once again, to combine with BMPS; the latter has largely de-risked its balance sheet, even if its core capital ratio is low
We would see a BPM-BMPS union as a major positive catalyst for a UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)  re-rating; even if Unicredit were to acquire BMPS, we believe that, at current valuations, a lot of the risks are discounted
Risks to our positive Unicredit view include Unicredit’s acquisition of BMPS on unfavourable terms, as well as worse than expected organic performance of revenue growth, given the challenging interest rate environment


Southern Europe Banks: Focus on Italian Banks M&A

Italy

UnipolSai SpA is an multi-line insurance company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers life, health, accident, automobile, marine, fire, general liability, and credit insurance.

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UnipolSai SpA (US IM)

Unipol Gruppo/UnipolSai: Squeeze-Out and Spread

Unipol Gruppo S.p.A (UNI IM) has reached 95% of the share capital of UnipolSai SpA (US IM), therefore the conditions for the squeeze-out are met.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unipol Gruppo/UnipolSai: Take the Stock Instead

Unipol Gruppo offers €2.7/share to buy out UnipolSai, simplifying group structure with 12.6% premium. There is potential for the share alternative...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Southern Europe Banks: Focus on Italian Banks M&A

The prospect of Italian bank sector M&A in Italy is overly penalizing Unicredit shares for the risk of a BMPS deal. With the BPM-BPER union called...

Victor Galliano

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Unipol Gruppo/UnipolSai: Squeeze-Out and Spread

Unipol Gruppo S.p.A (UNI IM) has reached 95% of the share capital of UnipolSai SpA (US IM), therefore the conditions for the squeeze-out are met.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unipol Gruppo/UnipolSai: Take the Stock Instead

​Unipol Gruppo offers €2.7/share to buy out UnipolSai, simplifying group structure with 12.6% premium. There is potential for the share alternative...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Southern Europe Banks: Focus on Italian Banks M&A

The prospect of Italian bank sector M&A in Italy is overly penalizing Unicredit shares for the risk of a BMPS deal. With the BPM-BPER union called...

Victor Galliano

Unipol Gruppo offers €2.7/share to buy out UnipolSai, simplifying group structure with 12.6% premium. There is potential for the share alternative...