External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver strong 9/14% YoY/QoQ volume growth (four-year CAGR: 7%) in Q4FY23</li><li>We expect strong volume offtake by UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp., JK Lakshmi and Star Cement QoQ</li><li>We expect volume decline QoQ by ACC and Ambuja (Himachal plant shutdown)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver strong 9/14% YoY/QoQ volume growth (four-year CAGR: 7%) in Q4FY23We expect strong volume offtake by UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp., JK Lakshmi and Star Cement QoQWe expect volume decline QoQ by ACC and Ambuja (Himachal plant shutdown)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement - Strong Demand, Fuel Pressure Easing Out

<ul><li>BFSI Strong credit growth reported by banks while deposit growth remained a challenge</li><li>Asset quality continued to improve and NIM expanded resulting into strong earnings growth</li><li>NBFCs have also shown healthy loan growth with improved asset quality</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BFSI Strong credit growth reported by banks while deposit growth remained a challengeAsset quality continued to improve and NIM expanded resulting into strong earnings growthNBFCs have also shown healthy loan growth with improved asset qualityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly tracker (Q3FY23): Commodity pressure easing, margin expansion on the cards

<ul><li>Axis Bank: Axis Bank (AXSB) delivered a beat, led by better margins (4.3%) and strong fee income traction (+18% QoQ), partly offset by a one-off impairment recognition in the corporate book, which called for higher credit costs (81bps annualised)</li><li>The bank witnessed higher net slippages (100bps), especially from the retail portfolio (+40bps QoQ)</li><li>AXSB delivered further improvement in NIMs (+30bps QoQ), albeit on the back of continued sub-par retail deposit growth; however, we argue that the current loan-to-deposit ratio (9MFY23: 90%) appears untenable</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Bank: Axis Bank (AXSB) delivered a beat, led by better margins (4.3%) and strong fee income traction (+18% QoQ), partly offset by a one-off impairment recognition in the corporate book, which called for higher credit costs (81bps annualised)The bank witnessed higher net slippages (100bps), especially from the retail portfolio (+40bps QoQ)AXSB delivered further improvement in NIMs (+30bps QoQ), albeit on the back of continued sub-par retail deposit growth; however, we argue that the current loan-to-deposit ratio (9MFY23: 90%) appears untenableContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, Tanla Platforms, Karur Vysya Bank

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> reported flat year-over-year volumes and flat sales in domestic decorative paints in 3Q FY23. The company's gross margin recovery is aligned with easing raw material prices.  </li>
<li>The company attributed the rough quarter to a heavy base from last year's price increases and a prolonged monsoon, which impacted October volumes.</li>
<li>We believe that the volumes are lower than what has been reported.  Increasing competition could challenge APNT's premium valuation.</li>
</ul>



Asian Paints (APNT IN) reported flat year-over-year volumes and flat sales in domestic decorative paints in 3Q FY23. The company's gross margin recovery is aligned with easing raw material prices.  
The company attributed the rough quarter to a heavy base from last year's price increases and a prolonged monsoon, which impacted October volumes.
We believe that the volumes are lower than what has been reported.  Increasing competition could challenge APNT's premium valuation.


Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Masking Growth Concerns

India

Ultra Tech Cement Ltd. produces a wide range of cement products. This Company represents the cement operations of Larsen & Toubro which were spun-off into a separate entity in which Grasim Industries holds a majority interest.

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Ultratech Cement (UTCEM IN)

Cement - Strong Demand, Fuel Pressure Easing Out

We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver strong 9/14% YoY/QoQ volume growth (four-year CAGR: 7%) in Q4FY23

HDFC Securities

Quarterly tracker (Q3FY23): Commodity pressure easing, margin expansion on the cards

BFSI Strong credit growth reported by banks while deposit growth remained a challenge. Asset quality continued to improve and NIM expanded...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, Tanla Platforms, Karur Vysya Bank

Axis Bank (AXSB) delivered a beat, led by better margins (4.3%) and strong fee income traction (+18% QoQ), partly offset by a one-off impairment...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement

Axis Bank (AXSB) delivered a beat, led by better margins (4.3%) and strong fee income traction (+18% QoQ), partly offset by a one-off impairment...

HDFC Securities

Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Masking Growth Concerns

We believe that the volumes for Asian Paints are slower than what has been reported. Increasing competition could also challenge Asian Paint's...

Pranav Bhavsar

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