Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A disappointing wage agreement for German metal workers in November was an early indicator that trade unions will be a poor match against employers in upcoming wage negotiations. </li>
<li>The 5 most important wage battlegrounds to watch in Europe in Q2-Q3 will be Germany, UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands - read full case studies below.</li>
<li>Despite weak unions, current broad-based wage pressures of 4-5% is enough to keep core inflation TOO elevated in the Euro zone. The ECB has more work to do on tightening.</li>
</ul>


A disappointing wage agreement for German metal workers in November was an early indicator that trade unions will be a poor match against employers in upcoming wage negotiations. 
The 5 most important wage battlegrounds to watch in Europe in Q2-Q3 will be Germany, UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands - read full case studies below.
Despite weak unions, current broad-based wage pressures of 4-5% is enough to keep core inflation TOO elevated in the Euro zone. The ECB has more work to do on tightening.


Europe Wants to Get Paid – 5 Feuds to Look Out For

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US)</a> 4Q2022 numbers late last week made encouraging reading with revenues exceeding expectations significantly despite slow GMV growth in the quarter, as it maintained regional category leadership.</li>
<li>The company saw continued improvement in segment-adjusted EBITDA margins in 4Q2022 versus 3Q2022 for both mobility and deliveries, with the latter making significant progress towards steady-state margins. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>'s relatively high regional cost remains a drag but should stabilise here and outside this, it looks to be firmly on track to accelerate profitably. </li>
</ul>



Grab Holdings (GRAB US) 4Q2022 numbers late last week made encouraging reading with revenues exceeding expectations significantly despite slow GMV growth in the quarter, as it maintained regional category leadership.
The company saw continued improvement in segment-adjusted EBITDA margins in 4Q2022 versus 3Q2022 for both mobility and deliveries, with the latter making significant progress towards steady-state margins. 

Grab's relatively high regional cost remains a drag but should stabilise here and outside this, it looks to be firmly on track to accelerate profitably. 


Grab (GRAB US) - Moving Towards Steady State

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Chinese food delivery giant Meituan launched a recruitment campaign in Hong Kong signaling a push into the Asian financial hub dominated by foreign on-demand service leaders foodpanda and Deliveroo.</li><li>Meituan is hiring delivery workers including motorcycle and bike riders as well as so-called foot soldiers who can dispatch orders by foot, a recruitment document showed.</li><li>As an incentive, Meituan said new riders who complete a certain volume of orders will receive a bonus of HK$2,500 ($319).</li></ul>

Chinese food delivery giant Meituan launched a recruitment campaign in Hong Kong signaling a push into the Asian financial hub dominated by foreign on-demand service leaders foodpanda and Deliveroo.Meituan is hiring delivery workers including motorcycle and bike riders as well as so-called foot soldiers who can dispatch orders by foot, a recruitment document showed.As an incentive, Meituan said new riders who complete a certain volume of orders will receive a bonus of HK$2,500 ($319).

Meituan Gears Up for Hong Kong Expansion With Rider Recruitment

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

iShares High Yield Bond Factor ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We might get a reasonable amount of flak for this article, as many investors <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/new-fed-research-flags-rising-risk-us-recession-2022-12-30/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fear a recession</a>, and concurrently are staying away from high-yield bonds.</li><li>However, credit spreads are narrowing, and the equity market is receiving substantial support.</li><li>Thus, we believe the time is right to "risk it" on cyclical, high-yield corporate bonds with favorable interest rate sensitivity.</li></ul>

We might get a reasonable amount of flak for this article, as many investors fear a recession, and concurrently are staying away from high-yield bonds.However, credit spreads are narrowing, and the equity market is receiving substantial support.Thus, we believe the time is right to "risk it" on cyclical, high-yield corporate bonds with favorable interest rate sensitivity.

HYDB: Optimistically Backing High-Yield Corporate Bonds

<ul>
<li>Our recent update with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> management revealed a number of interesting product-led initiatives that will drive future growth and customer retention as well as save on costs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> has already seen significant progress on Grab Unlimited given its link to promos plus it is focusing on higher-spending customers to reduce the need for subsidies.</li>
<li>The company's valuations look attractive relative to growth and considering it is moving more quickly towards profitability plus it has more than ample cash to make it there.</li>
</ul>


Our recent update with Grab (GRAB US) management revealed a number of interesting product-led initiatives that will drive future growth and customer retention as well as save on costs. 

Grab (GRAB US) has already seen significant progress on Grab Unlimited given its link to promos plus it is focusing on higher-spending customers to reduce the need for subsidies.
The company's valuations look attractive relative to growth and considering it is moving more quickly towards profitability plus it has more than ample cash to make it there.


Grab (GRAB IJ) - Moving Forward on a Number of Fronts

United States

Union Pacific Corporation is a rail transportation company.  The Company's railroad hauls a variety of goods, including agricultural, automotive, and chemical products. Union Pacific offersslong-haul routes from all major West Coast and Gulf Coast ports to eastern gateways as well as connects with Canada's rail systems and serves the major gateways to Mexico.

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is an inter-regional and multi-regional motor carrier.  The Company primarily transports less-than-truckload shipments of general commodities, such as consumer goods, textiles, and capital goods.  Old Dominion serves regional markets throughout the United States.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide transportation and logistics services in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.  The Company transports a variety of products including automotive parts, department store merchandise, paper and wood products, food and beverages, plastics, chemicals, and manufacturing materials and supplies.

Norfolk Southern Corporation provides rail transportation services. The Company transports raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. Norfolk Southern also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports

CSX Corporation is an international freight transportation company.  The Company provides rail, intermodal, domestic container-shipping, barging, and contract logistics services around the world.  CSX's rail transportation services are provided principally throughout the eastern United States.

Landstar System, Inc. is a North American truckload carrier.  The Company transports a variety of freight, including iron and steel, automotive products, paper, lumber, chemicals, foodstuffs, and military hardware.  Landstar provides truckload carrier services, intermodal transportation services, and expedited air and truck services to shippers in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

U-Haul Holding Company operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers rental of trucks, trailers, and self storage space, as well as provides property and casualty and life insurance products. U-Haul Holding also sells boxes, tapes, and other moving and self-storage products and services to 'do-it-yourself' moving and storage customers.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. provides transportation and logistics services. The Company offers dry van, cross border freight transportation, fleet solutions, consulting, brokerage, equipment leasing, temperature controlled transport, and engineering services. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings serves customers in North America.

Saia, Inc. provides trucking transportation to the retail, petrochemical, and manufacturing industries.  The Company offers regional, interregional, and national less-than-truckload services, and selected truckload services across the United States.

Ryder System, Inc. provides a continuum of logistics, supply chain, and transportation management solutions worldwide.  The Company's offerings range from full-service leasing, commercial rental and maintenance of vehicles to integrated services.  The Company also offers comprehensive supply chain solutions, logistics management services, and e-Commerce solutions.

Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. mainly provides coal transportation service in Northern China. It also operates passenger transportation business.

MTR Corporation Limited provides public transport services in Hong Kong.  The Company owns and operates the Mass Transit Railway.  The Company also develops, sells, and manages residential and commercial properties.  In addition, MTR leases commercial facilities and provides services along the Railway, such as advertising, telecommunication facilities, and provides consultancy services.

Central Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services between Tokyo and Osaka, including the Tokai region.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides bus transportation services, leases real estate, and operates department stores, hotels, restaurants, and construction businesses.

East Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services in the Kanto and Tohoku regions, including Tokyo.  The Company's services include the shinkansen (bullet train) network and the Tokyo metropolitan network.  East Japan Railway also leases real estate and operates hotel, travel, and restaurant businesses.

DSV A/S is the parent company for a group of companies that offer transport and logistics.   The Group provides truck, ship, and plane transport services, as well as warehousing and logistic services.  DSV operates in Europe, North America, and the Far East.

Canadian National Railway Company operates a network of track in Canada and the United States.  The Company transports forest products, grain and grain products, coal, sulfur, and fertilizers, intermodal, and automotive products. Canadian National operates a fleet of locomotives and railcars.

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co., Ltd. provides railway operation services. The Company offers high-speed railway and stations investment, construction, operation, and other services. Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway provides services in China.

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra (601816 CH)

TOKYU CORPORATION provides passenger rail transportation, bus transportation, truckload services, and air transportation serving the Tokyo and its surrounding areas.  The Company operates department stores, real estate leasing, and hotel businesses.  Through its subsidiaries, Tokyu offers leisure-related services such as travel agents, theaters. golf, and rent car agents.

West Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services including the shinkansen network (bullet train) in North Kyushu, Kinki, Chugoku, and Hokuriku including Kyoto and Osaka.  The Company also operates ferries in Miyajima, manages real estate, shopping centers, and hotels, and offers leisure-related services such as travel packaging products.

Hankyu Hanshin Holdings, Inc. is a passenger rail company serving the Kansai area.  The Company also provides passenger bus transportation and logistics services.  In addition, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings operates housing and urban development, athletic facilities, theaters, travel agents, hotels, and other leisure-related services.

Uber Technologies Inc provides ride hailing services. The Company develops applications for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. Uber Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Uber Technologies (UBER US)

Europe Wants to Get Paid – 5 Feuds to Look Out For

A decline in real wages across the European continent has heightened expectation for upcoming collective bargaining agreements. We point you to the...

Steno Research

Grab (GRAB US) - Moving Towards Steady State

Grab's 4Q2022 numbers late last week made encouraging reading with revenues exceeding expectations significantly despite slow GMV growth in the...

Angus Mackintosh

Meituan Gears Up for Hong Kong Expansion With Rider Recruitment

Chinese food delivery giant Meituan launched a recruitment campaign in Hong Kong signaling a push into the Asian financial hub dominated by...

Caixin Global

HYDB: Optimistically Backing High-Yield Corporate Bonds

We might get a reasonable amount of flak for this article, as many investors fear a recession, and concurrently are staying away from high-yield...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Grab (GRAB IJ) - Moving Forward on a Number of Fronts

Our recent update with Grab (GRAB US) management revealed a number of interesting product-led initiatives that will drive future growth and...

Angus Mackintosh

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