Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.</li>
<li>Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.</li>
<li>Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.</li>
</ul>


TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.
Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.
Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.


Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Ps Mitsubishi Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Partial Offer launched last month by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> to take a 50.2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> ends at the beginning of next week.</li>
<li>This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. </li>
<li>Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.</li>
</ul>


The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.


P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

<ul>
<li>Last week, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> reported earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement &amp; Taiheiyo Cement stakes.</li>
<li>Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.</li>
<li>Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below. </li>
</ul>


Last week, as Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) reported earnings, Taisei Corp (1801 JP) announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement &amp; Taiheiyo Cement stakes.
Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.
Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below. 


Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.</p>

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Japan

Ube Industries, Ltd. produces and sells chemical products such as nylon resins, plastics and synthetic rubbers, fine chemicals, and pharmaceutical bulk compounds and intermediates. The Company also manufactures cement, construction materials, and machineries.

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Ube Industries (4208 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

TXN's lower capex and weak demand as slight negative for SPE and analog/power companies; Keysight's strong earnings and guidance is positive for...

Andrew Jackson

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Taisei's Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi (1871) has engendered a LOT of volume over the last three weeks. That suggests to me participation will be...

Travis Lundy

Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

GC Taisei Corp announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi to go to 50.2%. Ube and Taiheiyo Cement will sell. Partial Offers have traded badly on...

Travis Lundy

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving...

Vermilion Research

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