Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Technical Analysis

<h2>US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) / EURUSD: expecting new USD lows to be printed</h2><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26018:1">U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) (DXY CURNCY)</a> is in a bearish trend since the beginning of 2017, illustrated by the descending line resistance at 91.00 and the 55-day MA capping the market.</li>
<li>Mathematical indicators are back at resistance which suggest a new drop. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/047/823/original/DXY%20Curncy%20%28DOLLAR%20INDEX%20SPOT%29%20T%202018-03-19%2015-31-16.png?1521618760" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="47823"></figure>
</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>EURUSD remains clearly above its ascending trendline and 55-day MA support at 1.2220/1.2170.</li>
<li>The surpassing of 1.2380 would confirm the rise towards 1.2540 and new highs at…</li>
</ul>

US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) / EURUSD: expecting new USD lows to be printed

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) (DXY CURNCY) is in a bearish trend since the beginning of 2017, illustrated by the descending line resistance at 91.00 and the 55-day MA capping the market.
Mathematical indicators are back at resistance which suggest a new drop. 


EURUSD remains clearly above its ascending trendline and 55-day MA support at 1.2220/1.2170.
The surpassing of 1.2380 would confirm the rise towards 1.2540 and new highs at…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

Fed chair Jeremy Powell indicated that full employment is "in the low 4s", inflation is going to get to 2% quite smoothly, and the economy was stronger than he believed it was in December (at the time of the last rate hike). The dot plots at the 21st March FOMC are going to be closely watched, but as of now Powell is an unambiguous hawk on rates. Bad for bonds, good for the US dollar, and bad for EMs (unless he changes his mind when speaking to the Senate on Thursday!).Republican Jeb Hensarling…

Fed chair Jeremy Powell indicated that full employment is "in the low 4s", inflation is going to get to 2% quite smoothly, and the economy was stronger than he believed it was in December (at the time of the last rate hike). The dot plots at the 21st March FOMC are going to be closely watched, but as of now Powell is an unambiguous hawk on rates. Bad for bonds, good for the US dollar, and bad for EMs (unless he changes his mind when speaking to the Senate on Thursday!).Republican Jeb Hensarling…

Unambiguously Hawkish Powell to Trigger Higher Yields and a Stronger Dollar

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

... the Dollar Index is, nevertheless, close to ending a 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and the weekly momentum indicators lie not far above oversold, with bullish divergence forming.  We don't think the decline is quite complete for two reasons:<ul>
<li>all of the daily momentum indicators made new lows in line with DXY at the late-January low, signalling that further lows are more-likely-than-not </li>
<li>that fits with the short-term wave count, which is missing a minor 5th wave.  </li>
</ul>We are therefore still…

... the Dollar Index is, nevertheless, close to ending a 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and the weekly momentum indicators lie not far above oversold, with bullish divergence forming.  We don't think the decline is quite complete for two reasons:
all of the daily momentum indicators made new lows in line with DXY at the late-January low, signalling that further lows are more-likely-than-not 
that fits with the short-term wave count, which is missing a minor 5th wave.  
We are therefore still…

US Dollar: Final DXY Low Still Lies Ahead, but ...

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">
Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
<ul>
<li>
Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
<li>
Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
<li>
Tuesday…</li>
</ul>
</div>


Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

US Dollar Last Push Down Before Reversal

US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) / EURUSD: expecting new USD lows to be printed U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) (DXY CURNCY) is in a bearish trend since the...

Guillaume Coutant

USD Major Cycle Low in Sight

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD...

Thomas Schroeder

Unambiguously Hawkish Powell to Trigger Higher Yields and a Stronger Dollar

Fed chair Jeremy Powell indicated that full employment is "in the low 4s", inflation is going to get to 2% quite smoothly, and the economy was...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Dollar: Final DXY Low Still Lies Ahead, but ...

... the Dollar Index is, nevertheless, close to ending a 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, and the weekly momentum indicators lie not far above...

Peter Beuttell

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)