Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In this note, we discuss the underperformance of the Colombian peso due to fiscal concerns potentially leading to a risk of credit rating downgrades. It may become a buying opportunity once one of the rating agencies downgrades the country.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we discuss the underperformance of the Colombian peso due to fiscal concerns potentially leading to a risk of credit rating downgrades. It may become a buying opportunity once one of the rating agencies downgrades the country.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: Monitor Colombian Peso for an Entry Point

This is the third edition of our monthly trade ideas recap note in which we list our current trade recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 12 trade recommendations so far, of which 8 are in the money.

This is the third edition of our monthly trade ideas recap note in which we list our current trade recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 12 trade recommendations so far, of which 8 are in the money.

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap (May 2021)

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD shows lead lows versus IDR, THB and INR that are trending higher already ahead of the likes of the SGD and KRW. USD/ZAR is making a macro low near 14 that has our attention and will see the EM complex follow this lead.DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro signals unfolding in the weekly cycle.A dollar low align nicely with our call for an SPX top near wedge line resistance. Short have been recommended in EEM and EWZ on the back of a USD low and rally cycle.

USD shows lead lows versus IDR, THB and INR that are trending higher already ahead of the likes of the SGD and KRW. USD/ZAR is making a macro low near 14 that has our attention and will see the EM complex follow this lead.DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro signals unfolding in the weekly cycle.A dollar low align nicely with our call for an SPX top near wedge line resistance. Short have been recommended in EEM and EWZ on the back of a USD low and rally cycle.

In this note, we compare the performance of Latin American and Asian currencies as the former had started outperforming earlier this month but the latter has since caught up. The performance gap between the two remains at its widest in 10 years.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we compare the performance of Latin American and Asian currencies as the former had started outperforming earlier this month but the latter has since caught up. The performance gap between the two remains at its widest in 10 years.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: LatAm FX Outperformance Versus Asia Did Not Last

In this note, we go over the reasons behind the underperformance of the Thai baht this year. With the underperformance likely to continue for the time being, we expect an opportunity to buy the currency to open up in the coming weeks.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we go over the reasons behind the underperformance of the Thai baht this year. With the underperformance likely to continue for the time being, we expect an opportunity to buy the currency to open up in the coming weeks.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Monitor Colombian Peso for an Entry Point

We discuss the underperformance of the Colombian peso due to the risk of credit rating downgrades. It may become a buying opportunity once one of...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap (May 2021)

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we list our current recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 12...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

USD Low Ties in with Risk Peak

DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Dashboard: LatAm FX Outperformance Versus Asia Did Not Last

We compare the performance of Latin American and Asian currencies as the latter has caught up to the former. However, the performance gap between...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Thai Baht Not Yet a Buy

We expect an opportunity to buy the Thai baht to open up in the coming weeks as the underperformance of the currency is likely to continue for the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)