Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances will be impacted substantially by the rally in (energy) commodities.</li><li>Even European Nat Gas seems to be on the move and pairing that move with the broader rise in Oil and Copper leads to a likely “flip” in the Eurozone trade balance.</li><li>When the Euro-zone trade balance shifts from positive to negative, we typically see an impact on the trend of the EUR, which is probably the last thing the ECB needs right now.</li></ul>

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances will be impacted substantially by the rally in (energy) commodities.Even European Nat Gas seems to be on the move and pairing that move with the broader rise in Oil and Copper leads to a likely “flip” in the Eurozone trade balance.When the Euro-zone trade balance shifts from positive to negative, we typically see an impact on the trend of the EUR, which is probably the last thing the ECB needs right now.

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>March CPI print came in above expectations at 3.5% YoY. CPI has come in above expectations for the past four months.</li>
<li>Gasoline, shelter, and transportation services were the major inflation drivers.</li>
<li>Dollar was the winner following the release as other currencies weakened. Euro declined the most while JPY weakened the least.</li>
</ul>


March CPI print came in above expectations at 3.5% YoY. CPI has come in above expectations for the past four months.
Gasoline, shelter, and transportation services were the major inflation drivers.
Dollar was the winner following the release as other currencies weakened. Euro declined the most while JPY weakened the least.


[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

<ul>
<li>US CPI remains well above Fed’s 2% target range. Rising gasoline and shelter costs will push March CPI number upwards.</li>
<li>Consensus is for March CPI to print at 3.4% YoY in March from 3.2% in Feb. Core CPI is expected to clock 3.7% YoY. </li>
<li>Rising CPI will dent the likelihood of rate cut in the near term. Fed has reiterated its data dependence. Hot CPI data will vindicate Fed’s hawkish stance.</li>
</ul>


US CPI remains well above Fed’s 2% target range. Rising gasoline and shelter costs will push March CPI number upwards.
Consensus is for March CPI to print at 3.4% YoY in March from 3.2% in Feb. Core CPI is expected to clock 3.7% YoY. 
Rising CPI will dent the likelihood of rate cut in the near term. Fed has reiterated its data dependence. Hot CPI data will vindicate Fed’s hawkish stance.


[US CPI Preview] Rising Gasoline Prices & Shelter Costs to Result in Hot US Inflation

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Solid PMI numbers out of China supporting the reflation story</li><li>Steel Production looks ok. There is still potential for the USD to throw a wrench in the works</li><li>This week we’ll pick up where we left off last week and continue to talk about China as we have had a surprise in PMI numbers.</li></ul>

Solid PMI numbers out of China supporting the reflation storySteel Production looks ok. There is still potential for the USD to throw a wrench in the worksThis week we’ll pick up where we left off last week and continue to talk about China as we have had a surprise in PMI numbers.

Energy Cable #63: It is still all eyes on China

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).</li>
<li>To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).
To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.
Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.


Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances...

Steno Research

[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

Mint Finance

[US CPI Preview] Rising Gasoline Prices & Shelter Costs to Result in Hot US Inflation

Rising gasoline and shelter costs expected to push March CPI numbers higher, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term and supporting...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable #63: It is still all eyes on China

Solid PMI numbers out of China supporting the reflation story. Steel Production looks ok. There is still potential for the USD to throw a wrench in...

Steno Research

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM $RTY $IJH $MDY $VXF; Broadening Participation (NYSE Net New...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances...

Steno Research

[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

​March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

Mint Finance

[US CPI Preview] Rising Gasoline Prices & Shelter Costs to Result in Hot US Inflation

Rising gasoline and shelter costs expected to push March CPI numbers higher, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term and supporting...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable #63: It is still all eyes on China

Solid PMI numbers out of China supporting the reflation story. Steel Production looks ok. There is still potential for the USD to throw a wrench in...

Steno Research

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM $RTY $IJH $MDY $VXF; Broadening Participation (NYSE Net New...

Vermilion Research

March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...