Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The US dollar has started appreciating again on the back of a safe-haven bid with risk aversion rising due to the Fed's upcoming rate-hiking cycle and the Russia-Ukraine tensions.</li>
<li>Given my expectation of rising dollar volatility, I had recommended hedging a diversified EMFX portfolio with the euro. Indeed, the euro hedge has worked well over the past three months.</li>
<li>I continue to prescribe maintaining the euro hedge. If the dollar remains volatile, I don't expect the low volatility of EM currencies – dragged lower by Asia – to persist. </li>
</ul>


The US dollar has started appreciating again on the back of a safe-haven bid with risk aversion rising due to the Fed's upcoming rate-hiking cycle and the Russia-Ukraine tensions.
Given my expectation of rising dollar volatility, I had recommended hedging a diversified EMFX portfolio with the euro. Indeed, the euro hedge has worked well over the past three months.
I continue to prescribe maintaining the euro hedge. If the dollar remains volatile, I don't expect the low volatility of EM currencies – dragged lower by Asia – to persist. 


Value of Euro as a Hedge for EM Currencies in Times Like These

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.
I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over the past several weeks Gold &amp; Silver should have gone lower in the face of hawkish central banks and rising yields</li>
<li>The USD should also have gone much higher. Neither transpired and we now sit here with almost 4 hikes priced for this year by the Fed.</li>
<li>Sometimes it is as important to identify what a market does NOT do rather than what it does...</li>
</ul>


Over the past several weeks Gold &amp; Silver should have gone lower in the face of hawkish central banks and rising yields
The USD should also have gone much higher. Neither transpired and we now sit here with almost 4 hikes priced for this year by the Fed.
Sometimes it is as important to identify what a market does NOT do rather than what it does...


Bullion – “Should Have, Would Have, Didn’t, so Won’t.”

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.</li>
<li>USD in Asia has met key long support with some undershooting in the SGD and INR.</li>
<li>A fresh USD rally in EM supports our bearish EEM theme that aligns with our bearish China/HK bet. US 10yr yield is geared for a major breakout above 1.69%.</li>
</ul>


DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.
USD in Asia has met key long support with some undershooting in the SGD and INR.
A fresh USD rally in EM supports our bearish EEM theme that aligns with our bearish China/HK bet. US 10yr yield is geared for a major breakout above 1.69%.


United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Value of Euro as a Hedge for EM Currencies in Times Like These

Given my expectation that the dollar should remain volatile in the near term, I continue to recommend maintaining a euro hedge for a diversified...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 21 of the 31 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

Bullion – “Should Have, Would Have, Didn’t, so Won’t.”

There have been lots of reasons for Gold & Silver to trend down recently. However they have both remained resilient. It is thus time to re-examine...

Shyam Devani

USD to Break Higher

DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)