Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.</li>
<li>Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.</li>
<li>Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.</li>
</ul>


CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.
Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.
Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.


Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DXY weakened by 0.8%, Yen surges by 6%, and Euro by 0.75%. Recession fears, BoJ rate hikes and subsequent unwind of the yen carry trade drove forex market volatility.</li>
<li>Implied volatility (IV) for JPY options increased sharply from early July, with a surge following the BoJ rate hike and non-farm payroll report. EUR options IV reached a one-month. </li>
<li>Euro options saw a large buildup of calls for near-term expiries and a significant increase in puts for September expiries, reflecting mixed market sentiment.</li>
</ul>


DXY weakened by 0.8%, Yen surges by 6%, and Euro by 0.75%. Recession fears, BoJ rate hikes and subsequent unwind of the yen carry trade drove forex market volatility.
Implied volatility (IV) for JPY options increased sharply from early July, with a surge following the BoJ rate hike and non-farm payroll report. EUR options IV reached a one-month. 
Euro options saw a large buildup of calls for near-term expiries and a significant increase in puts for September expiries, reflecting mixed market sentiment.


Dollar Swings Lower As Recession Risks Pervade; JPY Surges

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.</li>
<li>The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.</li>
<li>A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.</li>
</ul>


Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.
The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.
A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.


Asset Allocation Watch  – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

U.S. inflation fell below 3% for the first time in over three years. Despite mixed signals from the manufacturing sector, retail sales showed...

Mint Finance

Dollar Swings Lower As Recession Risks Pervade; JPY Surges

The past week saw unprecedented volatility across global markets, with forex markets shaken by BoJ's rate hike. FX options signal counterintuitive...

Mint Finance

Asset Allocation Watch – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September. The simple playbook is often...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

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