Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>USD dip/rise into overshoot zone as the green back begins to feel out a topping zone. The dollar typically tops a few weeks ahead of and equity troughing cycle.</li>
<li>DXY met our 110.50-111 tactical top target where we reduced overdone USD longs and placed a short bet (AUD and SGD) for a dip/rally.</li>
<li>Expect USD splinters to appear in coming weeks as the DXY top near the 111.25 projection if we hold 107.50 now.</li>
</ul>


USD dip/rise into overshoot zone as the green back begins to feel out a topping zone. The dollar typically tops a few weeks ahead of and equity troughing cycle.
DXY met our 110.50-111 tactical top target where we reduced overdone USD longs and placed a short bet (AUD and SGD) for a dip/rally.
Expect USD splinters to appear in coming weeks as the DXY top near the 111.25 projection if we hold 107.50 now.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&amp;P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse.</li>
<li>WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.</li>
</ul>


Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&amp;P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse.
WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.


S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

<ul>
<li>After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.</li>
<li>This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.</li>
<li>Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
</ul>


After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.
This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.
Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.


Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

<ul>
<li>DXY 105 was the level to hold and 106.50 the resistance to clear for a dollar green light from our 105.50 buy in point with a near target of 110.50.</li>
<li>Euro and INR have been long USD picks and more recently bought back the USD/THB and NZD (short). USD/CNH has cleared breakout resistance.</li>
<li>Conviction: High. USD macro bull to (109.50 met) 110.50 and 111.25. 119 attracts in 2023.  USD vs EM FX showing signs of a big risk move. Watch USD/MYR above 4.50.</li>
</ul>


DXY 105 was the level to hold and 106.50 the resistance to clear for a dollar green light from our 105.50 buy in point with a near target of 110.50.
Euro and INR have been long USD picks and more recently bought back the USD/THB and NZD (short). USD/CNH has cleared breakout resistance.
Conviction: High. USD macro bull to (109.50 met) 110.50 and 111.25. 119 attracts in 2023.  USD vs EM FX showing signs of a big risk move. Watch USD/MYR above 4.50.


United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

USD Top Zone to Lead Risk Turn

USD dip/rise into overshoot zone as the green back begins to feel out a topping zone. The dollar typically tops a few weeks ahead of and equity...

Thomas Schroeder

S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on $SPX, $293 on the $QQQ $NDX, and $177-178 on the $IWM. WTI crude oil is breaking below $85;...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

$SPX $QQQ $IWM Pullback Underway as Rising $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind; Commodities $DJP $BCOM Attempting to Break Out....

Vermilion Research

USD Rally Resumption

DXY 105 was the level to hold and 106.50 the resistance to clear for a dollar green light from our 105.50 buy in point with a near target of 110.50...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)