Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We screen our coverage universe for earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental longs.</li>
<li>Stocks discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honasa-consumer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36117:1" rel="noopener">Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN)</a> </li>
<li>TVSL EVs could surprise, NEST offers the right safety in the current environment, and for HONASA there is a possibility of turning around. </li>
</ul>


We screen our coverage universe for earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental longs.
Stocks discussed include TVS Motor (TVSL IN), Nestle India (NEST IN), and Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) 
TVSL EVs could surprise, NEST offers the right safety in the current environment, and for HONASA there is a possibility of turning around. 


Fundamental Longs - TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>TVSL Motors Ltd. (TVSL) Q3FY24 numbers were largely in line with our Revenue and EBITDA estimates with a Beat on PAT. Revenue (inline) grew by ~26% YoY (1% QoQ), mainly led by higher sales volumes (up ~25%/2% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>EBITDA (inline) grew by ~40% YoY (3% QoQ), mainly led by gross margin expansion on account of commodity softening and price hikes taken during the year partly offset by higher marketing expenses towards new product launches.</li><li>GM’s improved by 183 bps YoY (32bps QoQ) basis to ~26.3%. PAT grew by robust ~68% YoY (11% QoQ) and 9.7% beat largely on account of higher other income (Rs 73 Cr).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TVSL Motors Ltd. (TVSL) Q3FY24 numbers were largely in line with our Revenue and EBITDA estimates with a Beat on PAT. Revenue (inline) grew by ~26% YoY (1% QoQ), mainly led by higher sales volumes (up ~25%/2% YoY/QoQ).EBITDA (inline) grew by ~40% YoY (3% QoQ), mainly led by gross margin expansion on account of commodity softening and price hikes taken during the year partly offset by higher marketing expenses towards new product launches.GM’s improved by 183 bps YoY (32bps QoQ) basis to ~26.3%. PAT grew by robust ~68% YoY (11% QoQ) and 9.7% beat largely on account of higher other income (Rs 73 Cr).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Robust Q3FY24; New Launches to Boost Growth!

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric(OLAELEC IN)</a> ’s management, during Investor call, seemed confident in driving volume growth through expanded distribution, new model launches, and focused on technology upgrades and vertical integration for cost advantages.</li>
<li>The company, however, remains intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy of aggressive discounts and competitive pricing to drive volume growth—uncommon in India’s auto sector.</li>
<li>Investors seeking profitability and capital returns will need patience (and faith in Ola's strategy), while competitors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd(BJAUT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor(TVSL IN)</a>  may feel the pressure.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric(OLAELEC IN) ’s management, during Investor call, seemed confident in driving volume growth through expanded distribution, new model launches, and focused on technology upgrades and vertical integration for cost advantages.
The company, however, remains intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy of aggressive discounts and competitive pricing to drive volume growth—uncommon in India’s auto sector.
Investors seeking profitability and capital returns will need patience (and faith in Ola's strategy), while competitors like Bajaj Auto Ltd(BJAUT IN) and TVS Motor(TVSL IN)  may feel the pressure.


OLA Electric: Wimpy Quarter. But, Bigger Question—How Long Will the Disruptor Play Last?

<ul>
<li>We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.</li>
<li>Names in this auto-focused edition include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> .</li>
<li>Bearish names include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> as a potential name to be bullish on.</li>
</ul>


We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.
Names in this auto-focused edition include Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN), Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN), Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN), Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) .
Bearish names include Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) , Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) and Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) as a potential name to be bullish on.


Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Autos

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Oct’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~11% YoY and 6% MoM, while total exports were up by 23% YoY and 2% MoM, respectively.</li><li>Domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 1-3% YoY (up 10-12% MoM), led by strong volumes in Toyota, M&amp;M, Kia, and MG, which were partly offset by weakness in MSIL and Honda while tata motors and Hyundai witnessed flat volumes.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales were flat YoY (up 9% MoM), mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes, which were offset by high bus volumes. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oct’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~11% YoY and 6% MoM, while total exports were up by 23% YoY and 2% MoM, respectively.Domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 1-3% YoY (up 10-12% MoM), led by strong volumes in Toyota, M&amp;M, Kia, and MG, which were partly offset by weakness in MSIL and Honda while tata motors and Hyundai witnessed flat volumes.The domestic CV industry sales were flat YoY (up 9% MoM), mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes, which were offset by high bus volumes. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monthly Auto Volume Update - Automotive Industry - October 2024

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

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TVS Motor (TVSL IN)

Fundamental Longs - TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa

Identifying fundamental longs through earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives. TVS Motor, Nestle India, and Honasa Consumer.

Pranav Bhavsar

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Robust Q3FY24; New Launches to Boost Growth!

GM’s improved by 183 bps YoY (32bps QoQ) basis to ~26.3%. PAT grew by robust ~68% YoY (11% QoQ) and 9.7% beat largely on account of higher other...

Axis Direct

OLA Electric: Wimpy Quarter. But, Bigger Question—How Long Will the Disruptor Play Last?

Ola seems intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy—aggressive pricing to drive volume growth, uncommon in India’s auto sector. Investors...

Devi Subhakesan

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Autos

We highlight key earnings and call takeaways from companies like Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, Ola Electric, and Tata Motors.

Pranav Bhavsar

Monthly Auto Volume Update - Automotive Industry - October 2024

The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~11% YoY and 6% MoM, while total exports were up by 23% YoY and 2% MoM, respectively.

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

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P/E

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Fundamental Longs - TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa

​Identifying fundamental longs through earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives. TVS Motor, Nestle India, and Honasa Consumer.

Pranav Bhavsar

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Robust Q3FY24; New Launches to Boost Growth!

GM’s improved by 183 bps YoY (32bps QoQ) basis to ~26.3%. PAT grew by robust ~68% YoY (11% QoQ) and 9.7% beat largely on account of higher other...

Axis Direct

OLA Electric: Wimpy Quarter. But, Bigger Question—How Long Will the Disruptor Play Last?

Ola seems intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy—aggressive pricing to drive volume growth, uncommon in India’s auto sector. Investors...

Devi Subhakesan

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Autos

We highlight key earnings and call takeaways from companies like Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, Ola Electric, and Tata Motors.

Pranav Bhavsar

Monthly Auto Volume Update - Automotive Industry - October 2024

The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~11% YoY and 6% MoM, while total exports were up by 23% YoY and 2% MoM, respectively.

Axis Direct

Identifying fundamental longs through earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives. TVS Motor, Nestle India, and Honasa Consumer.