Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The BSE AllCap index Rebalance was completed in September 2023. There were 77 ADDs and 73 DELs. </li>
<li>Since the BSE AllCap index is the main universe for the BSE 200, 100, and SENSEX indices, there have been some changes to our December 2023 index change expectations.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
The BSE AllCap index Rebalance was completed in September 2023. There were 77 ADDs and 73 DELs. 
Since the BSE AllCap index is the main universe for the BSE 200, 100, and SENSEX indices, there have been some changes to our December 2023 index change expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: AllCap Sep 23 Rebal Done; Some Changes to Expectations

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> may continue.</li>
<li>Bullish stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-brands" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35289:1" rel="noopener">Metro Brands (METROBRA IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-wellness-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4353:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN)</a>, while the sentiment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-of-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7270:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN)</a> is Bearish.</li>
<li>Highlighted global stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4022:1" rel="noopener">Ebix (EBIX US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smith-a-o-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18645:1" rel="noopener">Smith (A.O.) (AOS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) may continue.
Bullish stocks include Metro Brands (METROBRA IN) and Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN), while the sentiment for Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) is Bearish.
Highlighted global stocks include Ebix (EBIX US) , Smith (A.O.) (AOS US) and Apple (AAPL US) 


[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.</li>
<li>The September changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.</li>
<li>For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.
The September changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.
For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

<ul>
<li>NSE Indices has continued to use the current index methodology to come up with the 5 adds/deletes. The proposed methodology seems to be put on ice for reasons unknown.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-transport-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Transport Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:183:1" rel="noopener">ACC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indus-towers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Indus Towers</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries</a>.</li>
<li>The adds, deletes, capping and funding changes will result in one-way turnover of 13% and in a one-way trade of INR 20.77bn. The impact on the adds/deletes is big.</li>
</ul>


NSE Indices has continued to use the current index methodology to come up with the 5 adds/deletes. The proposed methodology seems to be put on ice for reasons unknown.

Punjab National Bank, Shriram Transport Finance, Trent, TVS Motor and Zydus Lifesciences will replace ACC, FSN E-Commerce Ventures, HDFC Asset Management, Indus Towers and Page Industries.
The adds, deletes, capping and funding changes will result in one-way turnover of 13% and in a one-way trade of INR 20.77bn. The impact on the adds/deletes is big.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

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TVS Motor (TVSL IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: AllCap Sep 23 Rebal Done; Some Changes to Expectations

Currently, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX Index in December 2023. There could be seven changes for the BSE 100 index and six changes for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

There are 5 changes for the NEXT50 Index as the existing methodology is used. Turnover is huge and there will be big impact on a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

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Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: AllCap Sep 23 Rebal Done; Some Changes to Expectations

Currently, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX Index in December 2023. There could be seven changes for the BSE 100 index and six changes for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

There are 5 changes for the NEXT50 Index as the existing methodology is used. Turnover is huge and there will be big impact on a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: AllCap Sep 23 Rebal Done; Some Changes to Expectations