Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Tanvi Arora

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>The US indictment of key executives is a material credit negative for the Adani Group, with the allegations being more serious than those from Hindenburg Research’s short-sell report in January 2023.</li>
<li>In the near term, the US indictment is likely to constrain the group’s access to financing, particularly in the offshore market.</li>
<li>We note that the Justice Department's charges are directed at the individual executives, not at Adani Green Energy or other group entities.</li>
</ul>


The US indictment of key executives is a material credit negative for the Adani Group, with the allegations being more serious than those from Hindenburg Research’s short-sell report in January 2023.
In the near term, the US indictment is likely to constrain the group’s access to financing, particularly in the offshore market.
We note that the Justice Department's charges are directed at the individual executives, not at Adani Green Energy or other group entities.


Adani Green Energy - Event Flash - US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Yankuang Energy</li>
<li>In the US, treasuries edged higher yesterday, with yields declining 2-4 bps across the curve on possible dip buying and despite a large slate of corporate bond issuances.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST fell 3 bps to 4.28%, while the 10Y declined 3 bps to 4.41%. Equities rebounded from last week’s losses, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Yankuang Energy
In the US, treasuries edged higher yesterday, with yields declining 2-4 bps across the curve on possible dip buying and despite a large slate of corporate bond issuances.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 3 bps to 4.28%, while the 10Y declined 3 bps to 4.41%. Equities rebounded from last week’s losses, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.


Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29012'>Adani Green Energy</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Adani Green Energy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Adani Energy Solutions Limited (AESL) is operating a mix of regulated and unregulated businesses.</li><li>It has transitioned a) from operating regulated transmission assets to becoming a leader in competitively built transmission and b) from operating regulated distribution assets to emerging as a leader in smart meter assets.</li><li>It has tapped into unregulated businesses and scaled up emerging new opportunities.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Adani Energy Solutions Limited (AESL) is operating a mix of regulated and unregulated businesses.It has transitioned a) from operating regulated transmission assets to becoming a leader in competitively built transmission and b) from operating regulated distribution assets to emerging as a leader in smart meter assets.It has tapped into unregulated businesses and scaled up emerging new opportunities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Adani Energy Solutions - ‘Aut Iveniam Viam Aut Faciam’ – I Will Either Find a Way or Make One

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-probing-some-adani-offshore-deals-possible-rule-violations-2023-04-01/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">probing offshore deals</a> for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.</li>
<li>GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." </li>
<li>Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. </li>
</ul>


The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is probing offshore deals for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.
GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." 
Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. 


GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

India

Adani Green Energy Limited operates as a producer of renewable energy. The Company builds, owns, and operates power plants for solar and wind energy. Adani Green Energy serves customers worldwide.


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Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)

Adani Green Energy - Event Flash - US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives

The US indictment of key executives is a material credit negative for the Adani Group, with the allegations being more serious than those from...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Yankuang Energy

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Adani Energy Solutions - ‘Aut Iveniam Viam Aut Faciam’ – I Will Either Find a Way or Make One

We estimate EBITDA to grow at 32% CAGR between FY24-FY27E: 1) + INR ~30bn from new transmission bids, 2) +INR ~40bn from smart meter, and 3) + INR...

ICICI Securities Limited

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

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