Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Attractive valuation and low multiples compared to peers make Turning Point Brands an intriguing investment opportunity</li><li>Company is poised for significant top-line and bottom-line growth despite past struggles and negative sentiment</li><li>Strong position in tobacco alternative market and focus on non-cigarette products set TPB up for future success, offering potential upside for investors.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

Attractive valuation and low multiples compared to peers make Turning Point Brands an intriguing investment opportunityCompany is poised for significant top-line and bottom-line growth despite past struggles and negative sentimentStrong position in tobacco alternative market and focus on non-cigarette products set TPB up for future success, offering potential upside for investors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) - Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Smoore International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a> is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 16.5% of the total market share in 2019 (vs 10.1% in 2018), according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Smoore will commence trading on Friday, 10 July. Smoore priced its IPO at HK$12.40 per share (at the top-end of the range). </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our valuation analysis</a> suggests that the price range is attractive for a market-leading business. Our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that at the IPO price, Smoore remains attractive.</p></div></div></div>

Smoore International (6969 HK) is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 16.5% of the total market share in 2019 (vs 10.1% in 2018), according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Smoore will commence trading on Friday, 10 July. Smoore priced its IPO at HK$12.40 per share (at the top-end of the range). Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is attractive for a market-leading business. Our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that at the IPO price, Smoore remains attractive.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-smoore-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Smoore Technology (0959165D CH)</a> is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 10.1% of the total market share, in 2018, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. It is seeking is raise $500 million through a Hong Kong in 1Q20.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The industry is currently mired in regulatory uncertainty, but clarity is slowly emerging. While harsher regulations remain an overhang, we think that recent events have lowered the incremental regulatory risk, which could make Smoore an attractive opportunity for investors with higher risk appetite. Setting aside the ongoing regulatory uncertainty, Smoore has the hallmarks of a well-run business.</p></div>

Shenzhen Smoore Technology (0959165D CH) is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 10.1% of the total market share, in 2018, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. It is seeking is raise $500 million through a Hong Kong in 1Q20.The industry is currently mired in regulatory uncertainty, but clarity is slowly emerging. While harsher regulations remain an overhang, we think that recent events have lowered the incremental regulatory risk, which could make Smoore an attractive opportunity for investors with higher risk appetite. Setting aside the ongoing regulatory uncertainty, Smoore has the hallmarks of a well-run business.

Smoore IPO Initiation: Into the Vaping Zone

United States

Turning Point Brands, Inc. provides tobacco products. The Company offers a wide range of products, including moist snuff, loose leaf chewing tobacco, cigarette papers, make-your-own cigar wraps and cigar smoking tobacco, cigars, and liquid and tobacco vapor products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Turning Point Brands (TPB US)

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) - Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023

Strong position in tobacco alternative market and focus on non-cigarette products set TPB up for future success, offering potential upside for...

Value Investors Club

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

Smoore IPO: Trading Debut

Smoore International (6969 HK) is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 16.5% of the total market...

Arun George

Smoore IPO Initiation: Into the Vaping Zone

Shenzhen Smoore Technology (0959165D CH) is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 10.1% of the...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)