Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.</li>
<li>A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.</li>
<li>JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.
A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.
JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.


<ul>
<li>Troubled casino operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment (SGR AU)</a><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240520/pdf/063qmlyvz81ytz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> announced</a> it had “received inbound interest” from several parties, including "Hard Rock Hotels &amp; Resorts ... a local partner of Hard Rock".</li>
<li>Star is in the doghouse, again,  as the regulator conducts (another) review amid concerns Star did not do enough to remedy the problems identified in the first review. </li>
<li>Facing “serious and systemic non-compliance” with anti-money laundering laws, Star faces the distinct possibility of losing is casino licence in Sydney; and potentially the one in Queensland.  </li>
</ul>


Troubled casino operator Star Entertainment (SGR AU) announced it had “received inbound interest” from several parties, including "Hard Rock Hotels &amp; Resorts ... a local partner of Hard Rock".
Star is in the doghouse, again,  as the regulator conducts (another) review amid concerns Star did not do enough to remedy the problems identified in the first review. 
Facing “serious and systemic non-compliance” with anti-money laundering laws, Star faces the distinct possibility of losing is casino licence in Sydney; and potentially the one in Queensland.  


Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Hard Rock Rolls The Dice

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Back in June 2022, US/Europe toll-road play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> (ATLIX) <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02530630-2A1378680?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> IFM Global Infrastructure's request for limited company information, before deciding whether to submit a non-binding indicative proposal. </li>
<li>Undeterred, IFM, which held 15% of shares out at the time, bumped its stake to<a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02549751-2A1388878?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 19%</a> two months later; and has continued to capitalise on Australia's creep provisions ever since. </li>
<li>This morning, IFM is understood to have lifted its stake to ~26.5%, in an apparent attempt to gain additional board representation. Another tilt cannot be ruled out. </li>
</ul>


Back in June 2022, US/Europe toll-road play Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLIX) rejected IFM Global Infrastructure's request for limited company information, before deciding whether to submit a non-binding indicative proposal. 
Undeterred, IFM, which held 15% of shares out at the time, bumped its stake to 19% two months later; and has continued to capitalise on Australia's creep provisions ever since. 
This morning, IFM is understood to have lifted its stake to ~26.5%, in an apparent attempt to gain additional board representation. Another tilt cannot be ruled out. 


Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Ups Stake As Shares Waver

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s is currently trading tight at a ~6% discount to NAV.</li>
<li>The implied stub and JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> ratio are the highest outside the 2008 financial crisis.</li>
<li>Key catalysts for JCNC's outperformance, such as the SIMSCI Index inclusion, have passed.  JCNC is trading rich. Look to reverse the stub.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s is currently trading tight at a ~6% discount to NAV.
The implied stub and JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ) ratio are the highest outside the 2008 financial crisis.
Key catalysts for JCNC's outperformance, such as the SIMSCI Index inclusion, have passed.  JCNC is trading rich. Look to reverse the stub.


JCNC Is Even More Overstretched Vs. Astra

Indonesia

PT Tunas Ridean Tbk and its subsidiaries operate automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after-sales services.  Through its subsidiary, PT Tunas Financindo Corporation, the Company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

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Tunas Ridean (TURI IJ)

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

JCNC Is Still Overstretched Vs. Astra

JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values - and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed. I'd...

David Blennerhassett

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Hard Rock Rolls The Dice

Opportunistic suitors? Maybe. Probably. But like Crown, Star needs a clean slate. And that means it should be busted-up, or privatised -...

David Blennerhassett

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Ups Stake As Shares Waver

Trading mostly below its five-year forward averages; together with an attractive yield; IFM's latest share grab has been labeled opportunistic....

David Blennerhassett

JCNC Is Even More Overstretched Vs. Astra

On an implied stub, NAV discount, and simple ratio (JCNC/Astra), JCNC is trading rich. Astra is an ongoing recovery play, and is inexpensive versus...

David Blennerhassett

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