Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> has a remarkable 4Q23 with adjusted net profit surged 437.1% YoY. Higher volume and better market efficiency have resulted in massive margin expansion.</li>
<li>Net cash has ballooned to about 15% of its share price, and this has allowed it to carry out a massive US$300m Capital Return Program in 2024.</li>
<li>Business has outperformed the industry in CNY, with domestic hotel and air business volume increased by 60% and 50% YoY. Its overseas platform also saw double-digit growth.</li>
</ul>



Trip.com Group (9961 HK) has a remarkable 4Q23 with adjusted net profit surged 437.1% YoY. Higher volume and better market efficiency have resulted in massive margin expansion.
Net cash has ballooned to about 15% of its share price, and this has allowed it to carry out a massive US$300m Capital Return Program in 2024.
Business has outperformed the industry in CNY, with domestic hotel and air business volume increased by 60% and 50% YoY. Its overseas platform also saw double-digit growth.


Trip.com (9961 HK): Looks to Reap More Recovery Benefits

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ATAT/TCOM: Tourism: Local government will issue RMB600mn travel consumption subsidies during CNY(+)</li>
<li>9995 HK/BGNE/9926 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK:The National Medical Insurance Administration issued new regulations on the initial price of newly launched drugs to protect the independent pricing of innovative drugs.(/)</li>
<li>300750 SZ：Porsche's new Taycan doubles cruising range, uses CATL Shenxing battery(+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT/TCOM: Tourism: Local government will issue RMB600mn travel consumption subsidies during CNY(+)
9995 HK/BGNE/9926 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK:The National Medical Insurance Administration issued new regulations on the initial price of newly launched drugs to protect the independent pricing of innovative drugs.(/)
300750 SZ：Porsche's new Taycan doubles cruising range, uses CATL Shenxing battery(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/ZLAB/9995 HK/BGNE/9926 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/ATAT/TCOM/1211 HK/LI/NIO/XPEV

<ul>
<li>BIDU/1810 HK: Samsung plans to configure Baidu Ernie large language model into Galaxy S24 (+/-)</li>
<li>1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO: EV Deliveries for the Fourth Week of 2024 Show Continued Recovery Across the Board(+)</li>
<li>ATAT/TCOM/3690 HK: Tourism: Traveling trips beat expectation in the first four days of “Spring Move”(+)</li>
</ul>


BIDU/1810 HK: Samsung plans to configure Baidu Ernie large language model into Galaxy S24 (+/-)
1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO: EV Deliveries for the Fourth Week of 2024 Show Continued Recovery Across the Board(+)
ATAT/TCOM/3690 HK: Tourism: Traveling trips beat expectation in the first four days of “Spring Move”(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BIDU/1810 HK/BZ/300750 SZ/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/TCOM/ATAT/3690 HK

<ul>
<li>1810 HK：Samsung Galaxy S24 pre-orders in South Korea reach nearly 1.2 million  units, with a potential of 36 million units for the year(+)</li>
<li>LKNCY: Luckin Coffee reduced US$400mn registered capital, which may intend to comply with the new company law(/)</li>
<li>2269 HK: US Congress wants to ban BGI and possibly Wuxi AppTec from doing business in US (-)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK：Samsung Galaxy S24 pre-orders in South Korea reach nearly 1.2 million  units, with a potential of 36 million units for the year(+)
LKNCY: Luckin Coffee reduced US$400mn registered capital, which may intend to comply with the new company law(/)
2269 HK: US Congress wants to ban BGI and possibly Wuxi AppTec from doing business in US (-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ACMR/300750 SZ/DIDI/NIO/1810 HK/TCOM/LKNCY/2269 HK

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Trip.com (9961 HK): Looks to Reap More Recovery Benefits

Trip.com's adjusted net profit soared 437.1% YoY in 4Q23. Net cash equals 15% of its share price, enabling a US$300m 2024 Capital Return Program....

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/ZLAB/9995 HK/BGNE/9926 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/ATAT/TCOM/1211 HK/LI/NIO/XPEV

Local government plans to provide RMB600mn in travel subsidies; new regulations protect pricing of innovative drugs; Porsche's Taycan now has...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BIDU/1810 HK/BZ/300750 SZ/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/TCOM/ATAT/3690 HK

Samsung plans to integrate Baidu's language model into Galaxy S24; EV deliveries show recovery; and travel trips exceed expectations during the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ACMR/300750 SZ/DIDI/NIO/1810 HK/TCOM/LKNCY/2269 HK

Samsung Galaxy S24 pre-orders in South Korea reach nearly 1.2 million units; Luckin Coffee reduces registered capital by US$400mn; US Congress...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Trip.com (9961 HK): Looks to Reap More Recovery Benefits

​Trip.com's adjusted net profit soared 437.1% YoY in 4Q23. Net cash equals 15% of its share price, enabling a US$300m 2024 Capital Return Program....

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/ZLAB/9995 HK/BGNE/9926 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/ATAT/TCOM/1211 HK/LI/NIO/XPEV

​Local government plans to provide RMB600mn in travel subsidies; new regulations protect pricing of innovative drugs; Porsche's Taycan now has...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BIDU/1810 HK/BZ/300750 SZ/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/TCOM/ATAT/3690 HK

​Samsung plans to integrate Baidu's language model into Galaxy S24; EV deliveries show recovery; and travel trips exceed expectations during the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ACMR/300750 SZ/DIDI/NIO/1810 HK/TCOM/LKNCY/2269 HK

​Samsung Galaxy S24 pre-orders in South Korea reach nearly 1.2 million units; Luckin Coffee reduces registered capital by US$400mn; US Congress...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com's adjusted net profit soared 437.1% YoY in 4Q23. Net cash equals 15% of its share price, enabling a US$300m 2024 Capital Return Program....

Local government plans to provide RMB600mn in travel subsidies; new regulations protect pricing of innovative drugs; Porsche's Taycan now has...

Samsung plans to integrate Baidu's language model into Galaxy S24; EV deliveries show recovery; and travel trips exceed expectations during the...

Samsung Galaxy S24 pre-orders in South Korea reach nearly 1.2 million units; Luckin Coffee reduces registered capital by US$400mn; US Congress...