Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China</li>
<li>But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base</li>
<li>Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery</li>
</ul>


Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China
But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base
Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery


Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

<ul>
<li>Despite slower top-line growth, Trip.com posted firmer margins in Q224</li>
<li>Cash Operating Expenses as a % of Net Revenue fell by around -250 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Post-Covid, Trip.com has less competition; BUY with target of US$58 per ADS</li>
</ul>


Despite slower top-line growth, Trip.com posted firmer margins in Q224
Cash Operating Expenses as a % of Net Revenue fell by around -250 bps Y/Y
Post-Covid, Trip.com has less competition; BUY with target of US$58 per ADS


Trip.com Q224: Slower Growth | But Higher Margins | Competition Has Eased | BUY with US$58 Target

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>TCOM reported C2Q24 revenue in-line with our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income also in-line with our est./cons., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 18%/40%,mainly due to rising equity income</li>
<li>Robust int'l growth offset weakness in domestic. With services possibly included in the government consume subsidy in C2H24/1H25 and Rmb's appreciation.</li>
<li>We feel it is time to buy TCOM again, TP to US$50 from US$42.</li>
</ul>


TCOM reported C2Q24 revenue in-line with our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income also in-line with our est./cons., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 18%/40%,mainly due to rising equity income
Robust int'l growth offset weakness in domestic. With services possibly included in the government consume subsidy in C2H24/1H25 and Rmb's appreciation.
We feel it is time to buy TCOM again, TP to US$50 from US$42.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$50) Rating Change]: Beyond the Difficult Time…Upgrade to BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (27 Aug) 2Q24 results: net revenue was RMB12.8bn, up 13.6% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates; nonGAAP operating income (OP) was RMB4.2bn, 6% better than consensus forecast at RMB4.0bn, thanks to better-than-expected cost control on R&amp;D.</li><li>Excluding the RMB1.1bn impact from equity in income of affiliates, non-GAAP net income of RMB3.9bn was 9% better than consensus.</li><li>Although facing macro headwinds, as well as a tougher comps in 3Q24 owing to the transportation ticketing business related VAS business adjustment’s impact on revenue generation, the likely resilient travel demand generated from high-end customer base during the summer peak season should support resilient revenue growth and decent profitability, in our view. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (27 Aug) 2Q24 results: net revenue was RMB12.8bn, up 13.6% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates; nonGAAP operating income (OP) was RMB4.2bn, 6% better than consensus forecast at RMB4.0bn, thanks to better-than-expected cost control on R&amp;D.Excluding the RMB1.1bn impact from equity in income of affiliates, non-GAAP net income of RMB3.9bn was 9% better than consensus.Although facing macro headwinds, as well as a tougher comps in 3Q24 owing to the transportation ticketing business related VAS business adjustment’s impact on revenue generation, the likely resilient travel demand generated from high-end customer base during the summer peak season should support resilient revenue growth and decent profitability, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Resilient Travel Demand Amid Peak Summer Season to Ease Market Concern

<ul>
<li>July outbound travel (and seat capacity) fnally approached pre-Covid19 levels</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also showed modest Y/Y improvement in July </li>
<li>We still like Trip.com on improving profitability, BUY with US$55 target</li>
</ul>


July outbound travel (and seat capacity) fnally approached pre-Covid19 levels
Domestic air travel demand also showed modest Y/Y improvement in July 
We still like Trip.com on improving profitability, BUY with US$55 target


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

Yes, foreign inbound travel to China has shown strong growth so far in 2024, but the numbers are rising from a very low base, and ultimately matter...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q224: Slower Growth | But Higher Margins | Competition Has Eased | BUY with US$58 Target

Trip.com posted slower revenue growth in Q2, but margins improved as the company expertly managed operating expenses. Post-Covid, Trip.com's...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$50) Rating Change]: Beyond the Difficult Time…Upgrade to BUY

TCOM's Q2 revenue and net income beat expectations, driven by international growth and rising equity income. Analysts recommend buying with a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Resilient Travel Demand Amid Peak Summer Season to Ease Market Concern

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (27 Aug) 2Q24 results: net revenue was RMB12.8bn, up 13.6% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

July data shows continuing improvement in Chinese outbound and domestic travel activity. We still like shares of Trip.com, and retain our BUY...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

Yes, foreign inbound travel to China has shown strong growth so far in 2024, but the numbers are rising from a very low base, and ultimately matter...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q224: Slower Growth | But Higher Margins | Competition Has Eased | BUY with US$58 Target

Trip.com posted slower revenue growth in Q2, but margins improved as the company expertly managed operating expenses. Post-Covid, Trip.com's...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$50) Rating Change]: Beyond the Difficult Time…Upgrade to BUY

​TCOM's Q2 revenue and net income beat expectations, driven by international growth and rising equity income. Analysts recommend buying with a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Resilient Travel Demand Amid Peak Summer Season to Ease Market Concern

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (27 Aug) 2Q24 results: net revenue was RMB12.8bn, up 13.6% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

July data shows continuing improvement in Chinese outbound and domestic travel activity. We still like shares of Trip.com, and retain our BUY...

Tracking Traffic

TCOM's Q2 revenue and net income beat expectations, driven by international growth and rising equity income. Analysts recommend buying with a...