Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Trex Company, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, demonstrating the durability of customer demand for its goods and the power of the outdoor living market.</li><li>Despite a slight sales dip compared to the significant second quarter of last year, Trex saw mid-single-digit growth in channel sell-through.</li><li>Trex unveiled the Trex Select T-Rail system in the quarter.</li></ul>

Trex Company, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, demonstrating the durability of customer demand for its goods and the power of the outdoor living market.Despite a slight sales dip compared to the significant second quarter of last year, Trex saw mid-single-digit growth in channel sell-through.Trex unveiled the Trex Select T-Rail system in the quarter.

Trex Company Inc.: Innovating Beyond Traditional Decking Boundaries! - Major Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).</li>
<li>Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).</li>
<li>A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.</li>
</ul>


We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.


SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

<ul><li>Trex Company has been witnessing a decent sequential recovery as it navigates the challenges of the pro-channel inventory recalibration.</li><li>The company had delivered an all-around beat in its last result as consumer demand for Trex railing and decking remained steady.</li><li>We give Trex Company a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Trex Company has been witnessing a decent sequential recovery as it navigates the challenges of the pro-channel inventory recalibration.The company had delivered an all-around beat in its last result as consumer demand for Trex railing and decking remained steady.We give Trex Company a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Trex Company Inc.: Railing and Decking In High Demand – Key Drivers

<ul><li>This is our first report on Trex, one of the largest manufacturers of high-performance, wood-alternative railing and decking, as well as a leader in eco-friendly, low-maintenance living products in the world.</li><li>The launch of the new Trex Transcend lineage product line of the company has been received favorably in the market.</li><li>In this quarter, Trex partnered with two more distribution locations in Texas, which enabled it to expand and service the availability of the products of Trex Outdoor Living in the fastest-growing markets.</li></ul>

This is our first report on Trex, one of the largest manufacturers of high-performance, wood-alternative railing and decking, as well as a leader in eco-friendly, low-maintenance living products in the world.The launch of the new Trex Transcend lineage product line of the company has been received favorably in the market.In this quarter, Trex partnered with two more distribution locations in Texas, which enabled it to expand and service the availability of the products of Trex Outdoor Living in the fastest-growing markets.

Trex Company Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. </li>
<li>Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex</li>
</ul>


This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex


Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

United States

Trex Company, Inc. manufactures non-wood decking alternative products. The Company offers decking and railing, outdoor lighting, and accessory hardware products. Trex serves customers globally.

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Trex Company (TREX US)

Trex Company Inc.: Innovating Beyond Traditional Decking Boundaries! - Major Drivers

Trex Company, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, demonstrating the durability of customer demand for its goods and the...

Baptista Research

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the $SPX testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). On the off chance...

Vermilion Research

Trex Company Inc.: Railing and Decking In High Demand – Key Drivers

Trex Company has been witnessing a decent sequential recovery as it navigates the challenges of the pro-channel inventory recalibration. The...

Baptista Research

Trex Company Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts

This is our first report on Trex, one of the largest manufacturers of high-performance, wood-alternative railing and decking, as well as a leader...

Baptista Research

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

This model uncovers companies facing recent declines in estimates. This week we flag: : Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, and Trex

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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