Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
<li>We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail </li>
</ul>


New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.
We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.
Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail 


Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As we progress in earnings season in line with our previous Playbook, this one focuses on select consumer names. </li>
<li>Names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-fashion-india-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36625:1" rel="noopener">Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shoppers-stop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12804:1" rel="noopener">Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>Most names expect a soft Q1, and SHOP is targeting the most aggressive expansion.</li>
</ul>


As we progress in earnings season in line with our previous Playbook, this one focuses on select consumer names. 
Names discussed include Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN) , Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN) &amp; Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN).  
Most names expect a soft Q1, and SHOP is targeting the most aggressive expansion.


Earnings Playbook | Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN) | Target of Quadrupling Network

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 10,820 (16.5x Mar-26E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>We continue to like UTCEM for its robust growth and margin outlook and balance sheet management</li><li>During Q4FY24, UTCEM reported all-around performance: volumes rose 11/28% YoY/QoQ and the margin remained flattish and strong at INR 1173/MT</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 10,820 (16.5x Mar-26E consolidated EBITDA)We continue to like UTCEM for its robust growth and margin outlook and balance sheet managementDuring Q4FY24, UTCEM reported all-around performance: volumes rose 11/28% YoY/QoQ and the margin remained flattish and strong at INR 1173/MTContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, Trent, Supreme Industries

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

Shoppers Stop Ltd. operates a chain of retail shops.  The Company retails men's, women's, and children's clothing; cosmetics and skin and hair care products;  home appliances; housewares; linens; luggage; jewelry; and accessories.

V-Mart Retail Limited owns, operates, and franchises a chain of family lifestyle stores in India. The Company operates medium sized hypermarket format retail stores that sell clothes, accessories, and footwear for men, women, and kids; cosmetics, luggage, toys, and games; and food, non-food, and staple items.

V2 Retail Limited owns and operates retail stores.  The Company sells readymade apparel and household merchandise and other consumer goods such as footwear, toys, watches, toiletries, grocery items, sports items, crockery, gifts and novelties.

Zomato Limited is an online restaurant guide and food ordering platform. The Company offers platform connects customers, restaurant partners and delivery partners to search and discover restaurants, read and write customer generated reviews, order food delivery, book a table, and make payments while dining-out at restaurants. Zomato serves customers worldwide.

Infibeam Avenues Limited operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company focuses on e-retail business including home and lifestyle products, books, automobile accessories, electronics, watches, health equipment, jewelry, footwear, apparel, baby products, movies, music, posters, magazines, toys, and gifts. Infibeam Avenues serves customers in India.

Thanga Mayil Jewellery Ltd. designs and manufactures jewels. The Company distributes and sells gold and silver necklaces, bangles, earrings, rings, chains, and anklets, as well as vessels, sculptures, tumblers, and other gifts. Thanga Mayil Jewellery serves customers worldwide.

PC Jeweller Ltd. manufacture, retails, and wholesale jewelry.  The Company sells jewelry through its showrooms and over the Internet.  PC Jeweller offers a wide range of products including gold jewellery, diamond jewellery and other jewellery including silver articles, with a focus on diamond jewellery and jewellery for weddings.

Shankara Building Products Limited retails home improvement and building products. The Company offers steel pipes and tubes, roofing sheets, hollow blocks, primers, tiles, plywood, kitchen sinks, and welding accessories. Shankara Building Products markets its products in India.

Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN)

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Dollar General Corporation operates a chain of discount retail stores located primarily in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. The Company offer a broad selection of merchandise, including consumable products such as food, paper and cleaning products, health, beauty, pet supplies, and non-consumables such as seasonal merchandise.

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates a discount variety store chain in the United States. The Company sells an assortment of everyday general merchandise at the $1.00 price point.

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. is a holding company established through a merger of Mitsukoshi and Isetan. The group operates department stores nationwide, selling clothing, foods, household goods, cosmetics and general merchandise.

Naspers Limited operates in the technology industry. The Company invests in global internet companies across the world.

Marks & Spencer Group PLC is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail of clothing, food and home products.

Next Plc conducts retailing, home shopping, and customer services management operations.  The Company's retail stores sell ladies wear, mens wear, childrens wear, and housewares.

Falabella S.A. provides digital and physical retail space in Latin America. The Company runs different formats such as department stores, home improvement, supermarkets, regional shopping centers and power centers, and provide financial services. Falabella operates in 7 countries.

Canadian Tire Corporation Limited is a family of businesses that includes a retail segment, a financial services division and CT REIT. The Company's retail business provides Canadians with products for life in Canada across its living, playing, fixing, automotive and seasonal categories. Canadian Tire Corporation's  retail products include casual, industrial and active wear.

Trent Limited operates a chain of retail stores that sell fashion apparel, cosmetics, perfumery products and toiletry items. The Company sells apparel for men, women and children. Trent sells its cosmetics products under the "Westside" and "Trent" brand names.

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Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

SBI Cards is an expected DEL for NIFTY Next 50 in Sep 24 and BSE 100 in Jun 24. Jio Financial is an expected ADD for both BSE 100 and BSE 200 in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Earnings Playbook | Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN) | Target of Quadrupling Network

We focus on select consumer names in the earnings season. Most names expect a soft Q1, with Shoppers Stop targeting aggressive expansion.

Pranav Bhavsar

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, Trent, Supreme Industries

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 10,820 (16.5x Mar-26E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

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