Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends next week. We highlight the 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a> remain our top inclusions, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo Co Ltd (3101)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a> could be deleted.</li>
<li>Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 1x ADV on many index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends next week. We highlight the 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.

Lasertec Corp (6920), Oriental Land (4661) and Renesas Electronics (6723) remain our top inclusions, while Toyobo Co Ltd (3101), Nippon Light Metal (5703) and Toho Zinc (5707) could be deleted.
Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 1x ADV on many index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (March): Potential Changes as Review Period Nears End

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> is still expected to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> minorities sooner rather than later</li>
<li>Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.</li>
<li>APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.   </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is still expected to buy out SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) minorities sooner rather than later
Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.
APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.   


Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>There are four weeks left to go in the data period for calculating the next Nikkei 225 review for March, likely to be announced ~7 March 2023.</li>
<li>The 3 ADDs should be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a>.  The 3 DELETES <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a> </li>
<li>Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. Slight underperformance would boost buying impact. The Sep23 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.</li>
</ul>


There are four weeks left to go in the data period for calculating the next Nikkei 225 review for March, likely to be announced ~7 March 2023.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723) , and Japan Airlines (9201).  The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707) , Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703) 
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. Slight underperformance would boost buying impact. The Sep23 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.


Nikkei 225 March Review - Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023)

<ul>
<li>With just over two months left in the review period, we expect three changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo Co Ltd (3101 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>As with the last rebalance, there will be a large funding trade estimated at JPY 417bn. There are many stocks with over 0.5x ADV to sell.</li>
</ul>


With just over two months left in the review period, we expect three changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the March rebalance.

Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Oriental Land (4661 JP) and Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) could replace Toyobo Co Ltd (3101 JP), Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP) and Toho Zinc (5707 JP).
As with the last rebalance, there will be a large funding trade estimated at JPY 417bn. There are many stocks with over 0.5x ADV to sell.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (March): Three Potential Changes & Large Funding Trade

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2022 Nikkei 225 Annual Review has been announced. This was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-review-results-nidec-smc-hoya-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80187" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can make early predictions for the March 2023 rebalance to be announced in six months. One way turnover would be about 1.4%. </li>
<li>The top three adds are Oriental Land, Renesas, and JAL. The top 3 sells would be Toyobo, Toho Zinc, and Nippon Sheet Glass. There are some dark horses here too.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2022 Nikkei 225 Annual Review has been announced. This was discussed in Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN. 
That means we can make early predictions for the March 2023 rebalance to be announced in six months. One way turnover would be about 1.4%. 
The top three adds are Oriental Land, Renesas, and JAL. The top 3 sells would be Toyobo, Toho Zinc, and Nippon Sheet Glass. There are some dark horses here too.


Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard

Japan

TOYOBO CO., LTD. manufactures and sells natural and synthetic fibers. The Company specializes in synthetic fibers, cotton synthetic blends, wool, secondary textile products, and functional materials.  Toyobo also produces plastic films, biochemical products, and electronics and operates construction business.

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Toyobo Co Ltd (3101 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (March): Potential Changes as Review Period Nears End

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Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard

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Travis Lundy

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