Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.</li>
<li>Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.</li>
</ul>


Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.
Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.


Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Revising TBIG future earnings, we see the conditions are fitting to TBIGs strengths, building new sites for telcos and laying the groundwork for future growth on sound fundamentals.</li><li>We feel TBIG is an ideal partner to build digital infrastructure with new fiber revenue depicting encouraging traction.</li><li>We roll-forward our valuation, and reiterate BUY call with new TP: IDR2,500. Key takeaways from 2Q23. TBIG 2Q23 revenue grew to Rp1.66tn (+2.7%qoq) with non-tower revenue making impact. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Revising TBIG future earnings, we see the conditions are fitting to TBIGs strengths, building new sites for telcos and laying the groundwork for future growth on sound fundamentals.We feel TBIG is an ideal partner to build digital infrastructure with new fiber revenue depicting encouraging traction.We roll-forward our valuation, and reiterate BUY call with new TP: IDR2,500. Key takeaways from 2Q23. TBIG 2Q23 revenue grew to Rp1.66tn (+2.7%qoq) with non-tower revenue making impact. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tower Bersama Infrastructure(TBIG IJ) - Leveraging Core Strengths

<ul><li>Revising TBIG future earnings, we see the conditions are fitting to TBIGs strengths, building new sites for telcos and laying the groundwork for future growth on sound fundamentals.</li><li>We feel TBIG is an ideal partner to build digital infrastructure with new fiber revenue depicting encouraging traction.</li><li>We roll-forward our valuation, and reiterate BUY call with new TP: IDR2,500.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Revising TBIG future earnings, we see the conditions are fitting to TBIGs strengths, building new sites for telcos and laying the groundwork for future growth on sound fundamentals.We feel TBIG is an ideal partner to build digital infrastructure with new fiber revenue depicting encouraging traction.We roll-forward our valuation, and reiterate BUY call with new TP: IDR2,500.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ) - Leveraging Core Strengths

Indonesia

PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk, through a subsidiary, builds telecommunications towers. The Company constructs, operates, and rents the towers to mobile telecommunications services providers.

PT XL Axiata Tbk provides a wide range of mobile telecommunications services in Indonesia.

PT Smartfren Telecom Tbk provides telecommunication services and general trading.

PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk offers wireless telephone services in Indonesia.

PT Indosat Tbk is a telecommunication and information service provider in Indonesia that provides cellular services (prepaid and postpaid), fixed data services or MIDI (Multimedia, Internet & Data Communication) and fixed voice services including fixed wireless access services.

PT Inti Bangun Sejahtera Tbk is is an independent tower company.  The Company engages in leasing space and other broadcast equipment for wireless signal transmission at tower sites under long-term lease agreement with mobile operators and wireless cable television providers.

PT Link Net Tbk provides internet services. The Company offers high-speed internet connection through fiber optic lines. Link Net caters to retail and corporate customers throughout Indonesia.

PT Bali Towerindo Sentra Tbk operates in the tower leasing industry. The Company leases  antenna space on self-owned multi-tenant Base Transceiver Station towers primarily to mobile cellular operators.

PT MNC Vision Networks Tbk. provides broadcasting services. The Company offers distribution of subscription television shows. MNC Vision Networks serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Mahaka Radio Integra Tbk is a radio broadcasting company. The Company operates FM radio stations that primarily broadcast across Jakarta and Surabaya.

Grameenphone Ltd. offers cellular telephone services to both rural and urban customers in Bangladesh.  The Company also provides Internet access via mobile telephones.

Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Ltd has been licensed by the Government of India to create and maintain telephone services in the states of Maharashtra and Goa. The Group utilizes broadband wired and wireless systems to supply broadband, data and Internet services, which encompass interactive video and multimedia feeds, and web based applications.

Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) (TTLS IN)

Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. is a diversified telecommunications company. The Company operates primarily in the cellular, local telephone, and personal communications services markets.  Telephone and Data Systems provides telecommunications services throughout the United States.

Total Access Communication Public Company Limited provides cellular mobile telephone services under WorldPhone 800 and WorldPhone 1800 brand names throughout Thailand. The Company also sells cellular handsets and other telecommunications equipment through its WorldMedia network of retail stores.

Freenet AG provides internet and telecommunications services in Germany. The company offers mobile and fixed line telephone, internet access services, information and news services, its own internet catalog, DINO-Online, e-mail accounts, e-commerce services and and set-up of homepages. Through its subsidiary mobilcom is also the franchiser of the MobilCom retail shops.

Sistema PJSC FC is a publicly-listed investment company incorporated in Russia. The Company owns a diverse set of public and private companies which it holds in two distinct portfolios: Core assets and Developing assets.

StarHub Ltd. is a fully-integrated info-communication company offering a full range of information, communications, and entertainment services for both consumer and corporate markets in Singapore. The Company provides mobile network and multi-channel cable TV services, including high definition and on-demand services, as well as high-speed residential broadband services.

OKINAWA CELLULAR TELEPHONE COMPANY provides cellular and car phone services in Okinawa Prefecture.  The Company also sells cellular phones and accessories.

Orange Belgium offers mobile telephone services in Belgium through a GSM network, as well as fixed-line services for international calls. The Company offers services such as pre-paid calling cards, text messaging, mobile office access for business customers, and games.

PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk provides telecommunication infrastructure services to Indonesian wireless carriers. The Company develops and operates telecommunication supporting infrastructure including tower and in-building systems across Indonesia.

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Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas