New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) is due to report a strong post-COVID profit turnaround in its FY23 result on 29 August 2023.</li><li>The result will be driven by very strong rental yields across its international vehicle rental markets, robust but declining vehicles sales margins, and seven months contribution from Apollo (ATL).</li><li>Management is guiding to underlying NPAT above NZ$48m, though accepts that delayed vehicle sales deliveries around year end may mean it misses this guidance.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) is due to report a strong post-COVID profit turnaround in its FY23 result on 29 August 2023.The result will be driven by very strong rental yields across its international vehicle rental markets, robust but declining vehicles sales margins, and seven months contribution from Apollo (ATL).Management is guiding to underlying NPAT above NZ$48m, though accepts that delayed vehicle sales deliveries around year end may mean it misses this guidance.

Tourism Holdings - FY23 Preview — Accelerating up the Gears

<ul><li>Guidance caveat; positive near-term outlook: THL's trading update leaves FY23 earnings guidance (underlying NPAT above NZ$48m [FB: NZ$49.4m]) unchanged though now qualifies it by suggesting, “there is some risk in meeting our FY23 profit expectations should vehicle sales deliveries delay from Q4 FY23 into July/August 2023</li><li>Prolonged fleet rebuild programme: ​​​​​​​The trajectory of the fleet rebuild is unclear, though management expects it to be sub-10,000 units at year end FY25.</li><li>Balance sheet capacity: THL confirmed that it has sufficient debt funding capacity (supplemented by retained earnings and vehicle sales proceeds) to undertake the fleet rebuild programme without the need for new equity.</li></ul>

Guidance caveat; positive near-term outlook: THL's trading update leaves FY23 earnings guidance (underlying NPAT above NZ$48m [FB: NZ$49.4m]) unchanged though now qualifies it by suggesting, “there is some risk in meeting our FY23 profit expectations should vehicle sales deliveries delay from Q4 FY23 into July/August 2023Prolonged fleet rebuild programme: ​​​​​​​The trajectory of the fleet rebuild is unclear, though management expects it to be sub-10,000 units at year end FY25.Balance sheet capacity: THL confirmed that it has sufficient debt funding capacity (supplemented by retained earnings and vehicle sales proceeds) to undertake the fleet rebuild programme without the need for new equity.

Tourism Holdings: Weather Spoils RV Outing

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings’ (THL) investor day trading update leaves FY23 earnings guidance (underlying NPAT above NZ$48m) unchanged though now qualifies it by suggesting “there is some risk in meeting our FY23 profit expectations should vehicle sales deliveries delay from Q4 FY23 into July/August 2023</li><li>Management commentary suggests that the outlook for rental yields is strong with likely further increases in New Zealand, the US and Canada over the next 12 months.</li><li>In contrast, the outlook for vehicle sales margins appears to have deteriorated with lower demand evident in all markets.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings’ (THL) investor day trading update leaves FY23 earnings guidance (underlying NPAT above NZ$48m) unchanged though now qualifies it by suggesting “there is some risk in meeting our FY23 profit expectations should vehicle sales deliveries delay from Q4 FY23 into July/August 2023Management commentary suggests that the outlook for rental yields is strong with likely further increases in New Zealand, the US and Canada over the next 12 months.In contrast, the outlook for vehicle sales margins appears to have deteriorated with lower demand evident in all markets.

Tourism Holdings: Investor Day Trading Update

<ul><li>Rental recovery: THL has enjoyed an extremely successful six months after several tough years due to COVID-19.</li><li>Medium term growth options: THL's current record rental yields and vehicle sales margins will come under pressure over the next few years</li><li>Balance sheet capacity for rebuild; lower dividends in future: The rate of THL's fleet rebuild will be slower than we previously anticipated</li></ul>

Rental recovery: THL has enjoyed an extremely successful six months after several tough years due to COVID-19.Medium term growth options: THL's current record rental yields and vehicle sales margins will come under pressure over the next few yearsBalance sheet capacity for rebuild; lower dividends in future: The rate of THL's fleet rebuild will be slower than we previously anticipated

Tourism Holdings: 1H23 — Back on the Open Road

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) has reported an exceptionally strong 1H23 result. Underlying NPAT of NZ$26.3 represents THL’s strongest ever first half performance.</li><li>Management expects underlying NPAT greater than NZ$48m.</li><li>There is no interim dividend though THL expects to be able to pay a full year dividend later in the year, albeit under a revised (and lower) dividend pay-out ratio than previously.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) has reported an exceptionally strong 1H23 result. Underlying NPAT of NZ$26.3 represents THL’s strongest ever first half performance.Management expects underlying NPAT greater than NZ$48m.There is no interim dividend though THL expects to be able to pay a full year dividend later in the year, albeit under a revised (and lower) dividend pay-out ratio than previously.

Tourism Holdings (THL): 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

New Zealand

Tourism Holdings Limited provides tourist services in New Zealand and Australia. The Company's services include campervan and motor homes, car rentals and coach services.  The Company also offers sightseeing tours, Antarctic tourist centers, boating tours and cave expeditions.

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Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)

Tourism Holdings - FY23 Preview — Accelerating up the Gears

Management is guiding to underlying NPAT above NZ$48m, though accepts that delayed vehicle sales deliveries around year end may mean it misses this...

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings: Weather Spoils RV Outing

Tourism Holdings (THL) hosted a very well attended investor day and provided a trading update leaving FY23 earnings guidance unchanged, but scope...

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings: Investor Day Trading Update

Tourism Holdings’ (THL) investor day trading update leaves FY23 earnings guidance (underlying NPAT above NZ$48m) unchanged though now qualifies it...

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings: 1H23 — Back on the Open Road

Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a very strong 1H23 result, but in light of earnings guidance provided last week the result will likely do little to...

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings (THL): 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

Tourism Holdings (THL) has reported an exceptionally strong 1H23 result - the result includes one month of recently acquired Apollo (ATL), which...

Forsyth Barr

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