Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Another quarter, another Toshiba Medium Term Plan as activist investors keep sending management back to the drawing board until they come back with a privatisation. </li>
<li>Except there is still no sign of any significant appetite among buyers and no sign that they would be allowed to go through with it even if there was. </li>
<li>So Toshiba management shuffled a few deck chairs and the market yawned.</li>
</ul>


Another quarter, another Toshiba Medium Term Plan as activist investors keep sending management back to the drawing board until they come back with a privatisation. 
Except there is still no sign of any significant appetite among buyers and no sign that they would be allowed to go through with it even if there was. 
So Toshiba management shuffled a few deck chairs and the market yawned.


Toshiba – 16 Millionth New Plan Unlocks New Value! No Just Kidding It Didn’t

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  </li>
<li>At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.</li>
</ul>


The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.
The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 announced a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  
At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.


Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a brief respite in their never-ending drama over the holiday period Toshiba is again in the news as 3D reiterates their demands for a “review of all options”. </li>
<li>We have lost count of the number of reviews which haven’t resulted in a PE sale.</li>
<li>The question is exactly why 3D appears to be so aggressive even relative to other less than bashful activists.</li>
</ul>


After a brief respite in their never-ending drama over the holiday period Toshiba is again in the news as 3D reiterates their demands for a “review of all options”. 
We have lost count of the number of reviews which haven’t resulted in a PE sale.
The question is exactly why 3D appears to be so aggressive even relative to other less than bashful activists.


David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s extreme bifurcation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, widens even more. The holding in Oriental Land is now worth 275% of Keisei's market cap. </li>
<li>The fact that we don't KNOW what Murakami-san did and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> shares fell in large volume Friday AND pro-ration was 100% will lead to higher-than-expectd volatility.</li>
<li>The placement, the pledge, the connected party transaction, and a large parcel of shares moving into CCASS (ostensibly the founder/chairman's), suggest all is not well with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property (813 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s extreme bifurcation with Oriental Land (4661 JP), widens even more. The holding in Oriental Land is now worth 275% of Keisei's market cap. 
The fact that we don't KNOW what Murakami-san did and Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) shares fell in large volume Friday AND pro-ration was 100% will lead to higher-than-expectd volatility.
The placement, the pledge, the connected party transaction, and a large parcel of shares moving into CCASS (ostensibly the founder/chairman's), suggest all is not well with Shimao Property (813 HK). 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, Shinsei Bank, Shimao, Sawada, Virtus, Senex Energy

<ul>
<li>Cashed-Up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> doubles its buyback program. Separately, the appraisal rights proceedings for dissenting shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a> are now underway in Bermuda's Supreme Court. </li>
<li>The PBOC, CBIRC, and CSRC appear to have thrown <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a> management under the bus with simultaneous statements that Evergrande's case is an individual one due to "reckless expansion."</li>
<li>The ACCC approval, a key condition to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> proposal completing, has been obtained.</li>
</ul>


Cashed-Up Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) doubles its buyback program. Separately, the appraisal rights proceedings for dissenting shareholders of Jardine Strategic (JS SP) are now underway in Bermuda's Supreme Court. 
The PBOC, CBIRC, and CSRC appear to have thrown Evergrande (3333 HK) management under the bus with simultaneous statements that Evergrande's case is an individual one due to "reckless expansion."
The ACCC approval, a key condition to the Sydney Airport (SYD AU) proposal completing, has been obtained.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Matheson, Evergrande, Sydney Airports, Shinsei Bank, Kansai Super

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba – 16 Millionth New Plan Unlocks New Value! No Just Kidding It Didn’t

Another quarter, another Toshiba Medium Term Plan as activist investors keep sending management back to the drawing board until they come back with...

Mio Kato

Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

There is likely to be one Nikkei 225 Change around the end of Q1 2022. There may be more. We will know more on 11 Jan 2022 how many deletions are...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – The 3D Dilemma

After a brief respite Toshiba is again in the news as 3D reiterates their demands for a “review of all options” raising the question of exactly why...

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, Shinsei Bank, Shimao, Sawada, Virtus, Senex Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Matheson, Evergrande, Sydney Airports, Shinsei Bank, Kansai Super

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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