IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced a pre-conditional tender offer by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder at JPY4,620 per share, a 9.7% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The special committee opines that the offer is the best price that can be expected today, which sounds like we are recommending the offer as it is the only one.</li>
<li>The offer has several negatives: a 14% price reduction during the process, below the undisturbed price, below the mid-point IFA DCF range and no serious effort on Plan B. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder at JPY4,620 per share, a 9.7% premium to the last close price.
The special committee opines that the offer is the best price that can be expected today, which sounds like we are recommending the offer as it is the only one.
The offer has several negatives: a 14% price reduction during the process, below the undisturbed price, below the mid-point IFA DCF range and no serious effort on Plan B. 


Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP’s JPY4,620 Tender Offer, Now for the Really Hard Part

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Just post-close, the Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC016210R01C22A1000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> Toshiba's Board had agreed a JIP deal at "around ¥2trln." Toshiba confirmed HOURS later indicating language was still being hashed out. And the dividend cancelled.</li>
<li>Toshiba "supports" the deal because it aligns a single shareholder with management goals. They cannot recommend to general shareholders because it is too low. But JIP was the only bidder. </li>
<li>It raises the question of whether activists will submit to "Toshiba Fatigue" at what the Board admits is too low a price, or whether there is still fight left.</li>
</ul>


Just post-close, the Nikkei reported Toshiba's Board had agreed a JIP deal at "around ¥2trln." Toshiba confirmed HOURS later indicating language was still being hashed out. And the dividend cancelled.
Toshiba "supports" the deal because it aligns a single shareholder with management goals. They cannot recommend to general shareholders because it is too low. But JIP was the only bidder. 
It raises the question of whether activists will submit to "Toshiba Fatigue" at what the Board admits is too low a price, or whether there is still fight left.


Toshiba Board to Shareholders:  "Yes, Meh But We Did Our Job, Now It's Up To You (We're Tired Too)"

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reported today that Toshiba’s board had chosen to accept JIP’s buyout offer. </li>
<li>The purported pricing of ¥2trn is a relatively modest premium but is not a surprise and no surprise is a positive here in our view. </li>
<li>All that remains is shareholder approval and while we doubt there will be too many celebrations on that front, there is likely to be relief.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported today that Toshiba’s board had chosen to accept JIP’s buyout offer. 
The purported pricing of ¥2trn is a relatively modest premium but is not a surprise and no surprise is a positive here in our view. 
All that remains is shareholder approval and while we doubt there will be too many celebrations on that front, there is likely to be relief.


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, Nissin Electric.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 21Vianet Group (VNET US), 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK). 
Lowest spreads - Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU),Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), Nissin Electric.


Merger Arb Mondays (20 Mar) - Toshiba, AAG Energy, Tyro, Newcrest, InvoCare, Pushpay, Golden Energy

Equity Capital Markets

Japan Post Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-trimegah-bangun-persada-tbk-harita-nickel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36826:1" rel="noopener">PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ)</a> IPOs; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> offering.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP).</a>  </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), Trial Holdings (5882 JP) and PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) IPOs; Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) offering.
Event-Driven developments - Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP).  


Weekly Deals Digest (19 Mar) - Japan Post, Toshiba, AAG, SBI Sumishin, Trial Holdings, Harita Nickel

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP’s JPY4,620 Tender Offer, Now for the Really Hard Part

The shares will react positively initially. However, it should start drifting again once it becomes apparent that there is a considerable risk that...

Arun George

Toshiba Board to Shareholders: "Yes, Meh But We Did Our Job, Now It's Up To You (We're Tired Too)"

Toshiba's Board supports but cannot recommend to shareholders a JIP Tender Offer at a price which was lowered three times from an already...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – The End… Hopefully

The Nikkei reported today that Toshiba’s board had chosen to accept JIP’s buyout offer and while we doubt there will be too many celebrations by...

Mio Kato

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Mar) - Toshiba, AAG Energy, Tyro, Newcrest, InvoCare, Pushpay, Golden Energy

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (153%), 111 (35.1%), Alliance Aviation (34.2%), Genesis (24.0%), Newcrest (12.9%), AAG Energy...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Mar) - Japan Post, Toshiba, AAG, SBI Sumishin, Trial Holdings, Harita Nickel

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Genesis, Nitro, Norwest, Pushpay, AAG, Halcyon, Toshiba, Toyo) and ECM (Japan Post Bank,...

Arun George

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