Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Macro trends for restaurant chains are all negative: Food prices rising faster than restaurant unit prices, part-time wages rising faster than full-time.</li>
<li>Toridoll’s same store sales resuming long-term underperformance trend that was broken only briefly during the pandemic.</li>
<li>Stock trades at 3x the market average PBR, despite merely average RoE. Technical support has broken down.</li>
</ul>


Macro trends for restaurant chains are all negative: Food prices rising faster than restaurant unit prices, part-time wages rising faster than full-time.
Toridoll’s same store sales resuming long-term underperformance trend that was broken only briefly during the pandemic.
Stock trades at 3x the market average PBR, despite merely average RoE. Technical support has broken down.


Toridoll (3397): Restaurant Chain on a Ledge

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28 Feb, the Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Mitsubishi-readies-sale-of-stake-in-KFC-restaurant-chain-in-Japan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> (an article I missed) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> would seek to unload its 35% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a> </li>
<li>The stock popped, then continued to rise further. After the close Friday, the Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Carlyle-nears-deal-to-buy-KFC-Japan-s-shares-from-Mitsubishi-Corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> MitCorp was close to a deal with Carlyle. A deal is apparently expected imminently.</li>
<li>I expect this could be a "Split Price Deal" (like Hitachi Transport and Pasona).</li>
</ul>


On 28 Feb, the Nikkei reported (an article I missed) Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) would seek to unload its 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) 
The stock popped, then continued to rise further. After the close Friday, the Nikkei reported MitCorp was close to a deal with Carlyle. A deal is apparently expected imminently.
I expect this could be a "Split Price Deal" (like Hitachi Transport and Pasona).


Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) - Deal Likely Imminent

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group / (CG US)</a> at JPY6,500 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 31.54% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Due to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer is a knockout bid. </li>
</ul>



Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY6,500 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close. 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 31.54% ownership ratio.
Due to the Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer is a knockout bid. 


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cafe De Coral Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cafe-de-coral-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2568:1" rel="noopener">Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK)</a> share price never really rebounded post COVID despite its operating numbers gradually improving. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> share price has rallied along with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> but not Cafe de Coral.</li>
<li>Recent profit alert that, excluding pandemic subsidies, the group's net profit will rise 470% YoY. </li>
</ul>



Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK) share price never really rebounded post COVID despite its operating numbers gradually improving. 

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) share price has rallied along with the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) but not Cafe de Coral.
Recent profit alert that, excluding pandemic subsidies, the group's net profit will rise 470% YoY. 


<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>’s 35% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>, which will result in a tender offer. </li>
<li>The structure will likely be similar to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.</li>
<li>The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), which will result in a tender offer. 
The structure will likely be similar to the KDDI Corp (9433 JP)/ Lawson Inc (2651 JP) tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.
The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

Japan

TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation operates a variety of restaurants such as skewered grill chicken, Japanese noodle, ramen noodle, Japanese-style pancake, and pasta restaurants.  The Company operates its business at food courts in shopping centers, stations, highway rest areas, and suburbs.

Price Gauge
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TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)

Toridoll (3397): Restaurant Chain on a Ledge

Stock trades at 3x the market PBR despite consistently average RoE. Even the slightest disappointment could send the stock tumbling, and now, macro...

Michael Allen

Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) - Deal Likely Imminent

The Nikkei reported two months ago that MitCorp would sell its 35% KFC Japan (9873) stake. Two months later, we may have a deal imminent.

Travis Lundy

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Due to the MitCorp irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable...

Arun George

Cafe De Coral (341 HK): Immediate Upside

Cafe De Coral struggles to rebound post-COVID, while Haidilao International Holding sees share price rally alongside market indices. Profit alert...

Henry Soediarko

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

The shares have increased 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Toridoll (3397): Restaurant Chain on a Ledge

Stock trades at 3x the market PBR despite consistently average RoE. Even the slightest disappointment could send the stock tumbling, and now, macro...

Michael Allen

Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) - Deal Likely Imminent

The Nikkei reported two months ago that MitCorp would sell its 35% KFC Japan (9873) stake. Two months later, we may have a deal imminent.

Travis Lundy

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Due to the MitCorp irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable...

Arun George

Cafe De Coral (341 HK): Immediate Upside

​Cafe De Coral struggles to rebound post-COVID, while Haidilao International Holding sees share price rally alongside market indices. Profit alert...

Henry Soediarko

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

The shares have increased 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.

Arun George

Cafe De Coral struggles to rebound post-COVID, while Haidilao International Holding sees share price rally alongside market indices. Profit alert...