Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Topsports International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.</li>
<li>We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the CSI 300 Index outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.
We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.
The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the HSCEI Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Topsports International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International Holdin (6110 HK)</a> is a pure-play on Nike and Adidas retail sales in China, as it is a leading retail partner of Nike and Adidas in China.</li>
<li>Nike's Greater China sales grew 12% yoy during the most recent quarter.  During the earnings call, Nike management was bullish on the prospects of the China business.</li>
<li>The company currently trades at 13x forward PE, with a forward dividend yielf of 7%.  </li>
</ul>



Topsports International Holdin (6110 HK) is a pure-play on Nike and Adidas retail sales in China, as it is a leading retail partner of Nike and Adidas in China.
Nike's Greater China sales grew 12% yoy during the most recent quarter.  During the earnings call, Nike management was bullish on the prospects of the China business.
The company currently trades at 13x forward PE, with a forward dividend yielf of 7%.  


Topsports (6110 HK):  Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> holdings.</li>
<li>Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  </li>
<li>CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. </li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK) stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) holdings.
Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  
CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. 


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally

<ul>
<li>The turnaround of sports business at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> is very welcoming. We are glad that sales trend in Oct-Nov is sustained and Phenix brand is well-received.</li>
<li>Reported losses widened as poor market environment enlarged investment losses. However, net cash and investment portfolio are still valued at Rmb8.5bn, or 5.9x its market capitalisation. </li>
<li>CNDX looks comfortably at over 6% full-year dividend yield. Together with just 0.15x P/B, there are enough protections for the downside of the stock.  </li>
</ul>


The turnaround of sports business at China Dongxiang (3818 HK) is very welcoming. We are glad that sales trend in Oct-Nov is sustained and Phenix brand is well-received.
Reported losses widened as poor market environment enlarged investment losses. However, net cash and investment portfolio are still valued at Rmb8.5bn, or 5.9x its market capitalisation. 
CNDX looks comfortably at over 6% full-year dividend yield. Together with just 0.15x P/B, there are enough protections for the downside of the stock.  


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Turned Around on Sports Business

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.</li>
<li>Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.
</li>
</ul>


Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.
Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) , JD Health International (6618 HK) and Sands China (1928 HK) were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

China

Topsports International Holdings Limited operates as a sports shoes and apparel retailer. The Company sells sports shoes, sports shirts, and other products. Topsports International Holdings markets its products throughout China.

Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)

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Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)

China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

We currently estimate passive selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed in China and HK. The potential deletes have underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Topsports (6110 HK): Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China

Topsports International (6110 HK) is a play on improving Nike sales in China, trading at 13x forward PE and 7% forward dividend yield.

Steve Zhou, CFA

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally

China Dongxiang trades at an 82.1% discount to NAV despite the recent HK and China rally, with potential for a positive bottom-line swing in FY25...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Turned Around on Sports Business

Along with the encouraging 3Q FY24 (Oct-Dec 2023) sportswear sales - Kappa brand sales up mid 40%–50% YoY, China Dongxiang has benefited from the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

We currently estimate passive selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed in China and HK. The potential deletes have underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Topsports (6110 HK): Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China

​Topsports International (6110 HK) is a play on improving Nike sales in China, trading at 13x forward PE and 7% forward dividend yield.

Steve Zhou, CFA

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally

China Dongxiang trades at an 82.1% discount to NAV despite the recent HK and China rally, with potential for a positive bottom-line swing in FY25...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Turned Around on Sports Business

Along with the encouraging 3Q FY24 (Oct-Dec 2023) sportswear sales - Kappa brand sales up mid 40%–50% YoY, China Dongxiang has benefited from the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

Topsports International (6110 HK) is a play on improving Nike sales in China, trading at 13x forward PE and 7% forward dividend yield.