Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (9866 HK)</a> passes the velocity test and could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>Given the low trading volumes and the large assets tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a>, passive trackers will need to buy around 10 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers need to sell around 7 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>. Given implementation is two months away, sell the stock on rallies. </li>
</ul>



NIO Inc (9866 HK) passes the velocity test and could replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Given the low trading volumes and the large assets tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX), passive trackers will need to buy around 10 days of ADV on NIO. 
Passive trackers need to sell around 7 days of ADV on ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK). Given implementation is two months away, sell the stock on rallies. 


Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact as NIO (9866) Could Replace ASM Pacific (522)

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hope we could be wrong, but the outlook of 1Q22 could be a bit bearish since we believe ASE Holding (ASEH) revenue/GM will reach ~NT$165bn/19.4% and ~NT$150bn/19.5% in 4Q21/1Q22 respectively. </li>
<li>China has massive local efforts on OSAT business because of low entry barrier. In our views, China can exist very well in lower profit margin to compete.</li>
<li>The worldwide OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Testing) companies of scale are majorly centered in Asia Pacific area.</li>
</ul>


Hope we could be wrong, but the outlook of 1Q22 could be a bit bearish since we believe ASE Holding (ASEH) revenue/GM will reach ~NT$165bn/19.4% and ~NT$150bn/19.5% in 4Q21/1Q22 respectively. 
China has massive local efforts on OSAT business because of low entry barrier. In our views, China can exist very well in lower profit margin to compete.
The worldwide OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Testing) companies of scale are majorly centered in Asia Pacific area.


ASE Holding (ASX.US, 3711.TT): The Outlook of 1Q22 Could Be a Bit Bearish as Actionable

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li><em><strong>A new AMD CPU at less than 50% of Intel one</strong>: AMD announced Ryzen 7 x86 CPUs for PC gamers, creators, and enthusiasts to be performance comparable to Intel Core i7-6900K's but will be selling at less than half price of US$1,028 for Intel CPU. </em></li>
<li>
<em><strong>A gaming CPU price war will begin</strong>: Given the price, performance, and thermal design power advantages on these new AMD x86 CPUs, we expect an inevitable trend for Intel to lose 10ppts shares or more to AMD in the next 12 months unless Intel will cut</em>…</li>
</ul>

Summary
A new AMD CPU at less than 50% of Intel one: AMD announced Ryzen 7 x86 CPUs for PC gamers, creators, and enthusiasts to be performance comparable to Intel Core i7-6900K's but will be selling at less than half price of US$1,028 for Intel CPU. 

A gaming CPU price war will begin: Given the price, performance, and thermal design power advantages on these new AMD x86 CPUs, we expect an inevitable trend for Intel to lose 10ppts shares or more to AMD in the next 12 months unless Intel will cut…


Will a Gaming CPU Price War Between Intel and AMD Begin?

<h2>3Q16 results and 4Q16 guidance beat Bloomberg consensus</h2><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results beat</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11409:1">Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR US)</a> reports 3Q16 EPS of US$0.25, which was US$5 cents better than Bloomberg consensus' US$0.20 due to 3% higher in sales and 2ppts better on gross and operating margin for a better mix and stronger utilization.</li>
<li>
<strong>Guidance beats</strong>: Helped by solid demand from nearly all end markets, Amkor guides better than seasonal 4Q16 sales decline of 1% to 9% q/q (midpoint as -5% q/q vs. Bloomberg's -6% q/q) but up…</li>
</ul>

3Q16 results and 4Q16 guidance beat Bloomberg consensus

Results beat: Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR US) reports 3Q16 EPS of US$0.25, which was US$5 cents better than Bloomberg consensus' US$0.20 due to 3% higher in sales and 2ppts better on gross and operating margin for a better mix and stronger utilization.

Guidance beats: Helped by solid demand from nearly all end markets, Amkor guides better than seasonal 4Q16 sales decline of 1% to 9% q/q (midpoint as -5% q/q vs. Bloomberg's -6% q/q) but up…


Amkor Beats on Structural Improvement or Pre-Merger Windows Dressing?

China

TongFu Microelectronics Co., Ltd. manufactures integrated chips. The Company provides assembling and testing service for memory, microprocessor, micro-controller, hybrid circuit, analog circuit, and other related services throughout China.

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TongFu Microelectronics (002156 CH)

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact as NIO (9866) Could Replace ASM Pacific (522)

NIO (9866) could replace ASM Pacific (522) in the HSTECH at the June rebal. Passive trackers will need to buy 10 days of ADV on NIO while selling 7...

Brian Freitas

ASE Holding (ASX.US, 3711.TT): The Outlook of 1Q22 Could Be a Bit Bearish as Actionable

Hope we could be wrong, but the outlook of 1Q22 could be a bit bearish since we believe ASE Holding (ASEH) revenue/GM will reach ~NT$165bn/19.4%...

Patrick Liao

Will a Gaming CPU Price War Between Intel and AMD Begin?

Summary A new AMD CPU at less than 50% of Intel one: AMD announced Ryzen 7 x86 CPUs for PC gamers, creators, and enthusiasts to be performance...

Andrew Lu

Amkor Beats on Structural Improvement or Pre-Merger Windows Dressing?

3Q16 results and 4Q16 guidance beat Bloomberg consensus Results beat: Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR US) reports 3Q16 EPS of US$0.25, which was US$5...

Andrew Lu

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