Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week</li>
<li>Company has held the line on SG&amp;A expenses; look for strong H124 growth</li>
<li>We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week
Company has held the line on SG&amp;A expenses; look for strong H124 growth
We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS


Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hygon Information Technology C / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.</li>
<li>With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.
The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.
With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the CSI 300, CSI 500, ChiNext and STAR50 indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> has a remarkable 4Q23 with adjusted net profit surged 437.1% YoY. Higher volume and better market efficiency have resulted in massive margin expansion.</li>
<li>Net cash has ballooned to about 15% of its share price, and this has allowed it to carry out a massive US$300m Capital Return Program in 2024.</li>
<li>Business has outperformed the industry in CNY, with domestic hotel and air business volume increased by 60% and 50% YoY. Its overseas platform also saw double-digit growth.</li>
</ul>



Trip.com Group (9961 HK) has a remarkable 4Q23 with adjusted net profit surged 437.1% YoY. Higher volume and better market efficiency have resulted in massive margin expansion.
Net cash has ballooned to about 15% of its share price, and this has allowed it to carry out a massive US$300m Capital Return Program in 2024.
Business has outperformed the industry in CNY, with domestic hotel and air business volume increased by 60% and 50% YoY. Its overseas platform also saw double-digit growth.


Trip.com (9961 HK): Looks to Reap More Recovery Benefits

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>The index changes for HSTECH index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the expected index changes and our latest flow expectations.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The index changes for HSTECH index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. 
In this insight, we take a final look at the expected index changes and our latest flow expectations.


Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place

<ul>
<li>By one metric, outbound tourism in December improved to 89% of 2019 levels</li>
<li>Meanwhile, domestic activity in December remained close to pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>In this month's edition we track the tourism recovery in ten illustrative charts</li>
</ul>


By one metric, outbound tourism in December improved to 89% of 2019 levels
Meanwhile, domestic activity in December remained close to pre-Covid levels
In this month's edition we track the tourism recovery in ten illustrative charts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | China's 2023 Recovery in Ten Charts | (January 2024)

China

Songcheng Performance Development Co., LTD invests, develops and operates theme parks and tourism cultural performing arts. The Company's major projects include the Sungcheng theme park and the cultural performing arts musical "The Romance of the Song Dynasty".

Songcheng Performance Development (300144 CH)

Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels Co.,Ltd. owns and operates hotels.  The Company also provides catering, business, entertainment, and other services. Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels conducts its business in China.

Shanghai Jinjiang Internationa (600754 CH)

BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. operates a tourism business.  The Company also invests in hotel and restaurant management, as well as provides advertising and exhibition center management services.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd invests in and manages theme parks in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides travel agency service.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A) (000069 CH)

Giant Network Group Co., Ltd. develops online games. The Company mainly develops, operates, and sells computer terminal network game and mobile terminal network game products. Giant Network Group provides services in China.

Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Co. Ltd. is in the hotel management business.  The Company also provides travel, food, and exhibition   space rental services.

Emei Shan Tourism Co.,Ltd provides travel services. The Company provides scenic spot ticket sales, tourist souvenir sales, tourism hotel management, and other services. Emei Shan Tourism also operates passenger cableway management, real estate loans, and other businesses.

China CYTS Tours Holding Co., Ltd. provides travel information and arrangement services.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures medical instrument, provides system integration services for the insurance industry, and develops real estate.

Changbai Mountain Tourism Company Limited provides tourism services.The Company's primary service includes passenger travel transportation, travel agency services and hot spring water development business.

Huangshan Tourism Development Co., Ltd. operates in the tourism industry.  The Company provides cableway transportation, sells garden tickets, operates hotels and restaurants, and provides tourism services.

Huangshan Tourism Development (600054 CH)

Wynn Macau, Limited owns and operates Wynn Macau, a destination casino resort currently featuring hotel rooms and suites, a casino, casual and fine dining restaurants, retail space and leisure amenities.

Skylark Co. Ltd. mainly operates a family restaurant chain across Japan.  The Company offers Japanese-style, Western-style, and Asia-style foods for a wide variety of targeted customer segments.  Skylark also sells food and provides delivery servies.

McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. operates a hamburger fast food restaurant chain throughout Japan.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores.

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

Jollibee Foods Corporation owns, franchises and manages a network of fast food restaurants under the trade name Jollibee. The Company was incorporated in 1978.

Minor International PCL is a global company focused on three primary businesses including restaurants, hotels and lifestyle brands distribution.

The Wendy's Company operates fast-food restaurants. The Company owns, operates, and franchises fast-food restaurants located throughout countries that include the United States, Singapore, the Middle East and North Africa, the Russian Federation, the Eastern Caribbean, Argentina, the Philippines and Japan.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is a worldwide developer, marketer, seller and manager of vacation ownership resorts and vacation club, destination club and exchange programs, principally under the "Marriott" and "Ritz-Carlton" brands and trademarks, which we license from Marriott International and Ritz-Carlton.

Travel + Leisure Co. operates as a hospitality company. The Company focuses on providing vacation ownership, managed rental, and exchange services, as well as owns vacation resorts and exchange properties. Travel + Leisure serves customers worldwide.

Genting Malaysia Berhad operates a tourist resort in Genting Highlands which includes hotels, restaurants, casinos, and recreational and amusement facilities. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and leases property, operates leisure and hospitality services, and provides time share ownership scheme.

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

Trip.com reported another strong set of quarterly results last week that featured strong top-line growth and admirable expense control. We suggest...

Tracking Traffic

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Trip.com (9961 HK): Looks to Reap More Recovery Benefits

Trip.com's adjusted net profit soared 437.1% YoY in 4Q23. Net cash equals 15% of its share price, enabling a US$300m 2024 Capital Return Program....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place

I see US$415mn one-way index flows assuming Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) gets added and GDS Holdings (9698 HK) gets deleted. However, I see these as...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | China's 2023 Recovery in Ten Charts | (January 2024)

In this insight we document China's ongoing recovery in outbound and domestic tourism demand by sharing with readers ten illustrative charts.

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

Trip.com reported another strong set of quarterly results last week that featured strong top-line growth and admirable expense control. We suggest...

Tracking Traffic

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Trip.com (9961 HK): Looks to Reap More Recovery Benefits

​Trip.com's adjusted net profit soared 437.1% YoY in 4Q23. Net cash equals 15% of its share price, enabling a US$300m 2024 Capital Return Program....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place

I see US$415mn one-way index flows assuming Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) gets added and GDS Holdings (9698 HK) gets deleted. However, I see these as...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | China's 2023 Recovery in Ten Charts | (January 2024)

In this insight we document China's ongoing recovery in outbound and domestic tourism demand by sharing with readers ten illustrative charts.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com's adjusted net profit soared 437.1% YoY in 4Q23. Net cash equals 15% of its share price, enabling a US$300m 2024 Capital Return Program....