Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be a US$4.6bn secondary placement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> before year-end as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-seiki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin Corp (7259 JP)</a> unwind cross-holdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> was down 4.85% yesterday (and even more intra-day) and the stock could remain under pressure for the next few weeks.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying in conjunction with the secondary offering and active investors will need to buy a lot of stock.</li>
</ul>


There could be a US$4.6bn secondary placement in Denso Corp (6902 JP) before year-end as Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Aisin Corp (7259 JP) unwind cross-holdings.

Denso Corp (6902 JP) was down 4.85% yesterday (and even more intra-day) and the stock could remain under pressure for the next few weeks.
There will be limited passive buying in conjunction with the secondary offering and active investors will need to buy a lot of stock.


Denso Corp (6902 JP): Potential US$4.6bn Placement & Limited Passive Buying

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets.</li>
<li>Japan will suffer from base effects on economic data and earnings this year as JPY move reverses.</li>
<li>Year end Positioning could provide attractive entry points for both legs.</li>
</ul>


Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets.
Japan will suffer from base effects on economic data and earnings this year as JPY move reverses.
Year end Positioning could provide attractive entry points for both legs.


2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 1

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.</li>
<li>Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). </li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names Visional (4194 JP) confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.
Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). 


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> is looking to sell 25.5m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> via a secondary offering at a discount of between 8.7%-12.3%.</li>
<li>The offering will raise a maximum of US$433m and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> will use the funds to reduce its interest-bearing debt by the early repayment of its bonds.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying at the time of settlement of the stock but there is an index inclusion coming up that will result in passives buying.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Group (4755 JP) is looking to sell 25.5m shares of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) via a secondary offering at a discount of between 8.7%-12.3%.
The offering will raise a maximum of US$433m and Rakuten Group (4755 JP) will use the funds to reduce its interest-bearing debt by the early repayment of its bonds.
There will be limited passive buying at the time of settlement of the stock but there is an index inclusion coming up that will result in passives buying.


Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Placement: Index Inclusion Will Absorb Some Stock

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Denso Corp (6902 JP): Potential US$4.6bn Placement & Limited Passive Buying

The Denso Corp block is likely to be priced today. The stock is down 4.7% since the news of the placement and there could be some more downside...

Brian Freitas

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 1

A correct market allocation over stock specific allocation will define a successful year in 2024. Changing economic dynamics will mean the Japanese...

Rikki Malik

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

There are currently 68 names that satisfy all 6 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 67 names can satisfy 5 out of 6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Placement: Index Inclusion Will Absorb Some Stock

Rakuten is looking to raise up to US$433m by selling 14.6% of Rakuten Bank. Rakuten Bank has an index inclusion coming up and there will be passive...

Brian Freitas