Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>The TOPIX Inclusion events of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furuya-metal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5196:1" rel="noopener">Furuya Metal (7826 JP)</a> took place at the end of January and the price performances were mostly in line with expectations.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no upcoming TOPIX Inclusion events that have been announced officially but there are couple of pre-event names that should be on your watchlist.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
The TOPIX Inclusion events of Visional (4194 JP) and Furuya Metal (7826 JP) took place at the end of January and the price performances were mostly in line with expectations.
Currently, there are no upcoming TOPIX Inclusion events that have been announced officially but there are couple of pre-event names that should be on your watchlist.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2024)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US Q4 2023 GDP data "surprised" the market on the upside</li>
<li>US Inflation appears even lower than the government reported statistics</li>
<li>Japan inflation statistics ease and the BOJ hints at ending negative rates</li>
</ul>


US Q4 2023 GDP data "surprised" the market on the upside
US Inflation appears even lower than the government reported statistics
Japan inflation statistics ease and the BOJ hints at ending negative rates


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC Corp (6701 JP)</a> are looking to sell their entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> in a deal that will raise around US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> dropped a bit in November following INCJ's stake sale but momentum has picked up again as the stock reaches for new highs.</li>
<li>The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering. There will be BIG buying by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)</a> trackers in October.</li>
</ul>



Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) are looking to sell their entire stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) in a deal that will raise around US$2.2bn.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) dropped a bit in November following INCJ's stake sale but momentum has picked up again as the stock reaches for new highs.
The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering. There will be BIG buying by TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) trackers in October.


Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2024)

Our main pre-event name Celsys has experienced a drop in share price in recent weeks. It is still very close to being able to satisfy the Section...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

More Food (Data) For Thought

"Positive surprise in US Q4 2023 GDP, while inflation remains lower than reported! Japan's easing inflation and BOJ's potential end to negative...

Rikki Malik

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Hitachi and NEC are looking to sell their entire stakes in Renesas at a 6-8% discount to the last close and raise around US$2.2bn. TOPIX trackers...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2024)

Our main pre-event name Celsys has experienced a drop in share price in recent weeks. It is still very close to being able to satisfy the Section...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

More Food (Data) For Thought

​"Positive surprise in US Q4 2023 GDP, while inflation remains lower than reported! Japan's easing inflation and BOJ's potential end to negative...

Rikki Malik

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Hitachi and NEC are looking to sell their entire stakes in Renesas at a 6-8% discount to the last close and raise around US$2.2bn. TOPIX trackers...

Brian Freitas

"Positive surprise in US Q4 2023 GDP, while inflation remains lower than reported! Japan's easing inflation and BOJ's potential end to negative...