Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>Metrical's past analysis also shows that a company's capital allocation to investors is effective in raising valuations, so a proper allocation between investment and shareholder return is a baseline.</li>
<li>The correlation analysis between TOPIX and nominal GDP suggests that the shift from deflation to inflation has triggered overseas investors to focus on the further expansion of company profits.</li>
<li>While average P/B and ROE have remained flat, the rise in P/E has boosted the stock recently. This suggests that further share price appreciation will require an increase in profits.</li>
</ul>


Metrical's past analysis also shows that a company's capital allocation to investors is effective in raising valuations, so a proper allocation between investment and shareholder return is a baseline.
The correlation analysis between TOPIX and nominal GDP suggests that the shift from deflation to inflation has triggered overseas investors to focus on the further expansion of company profits.
While average P/B and ROE have remained flat, the rise in P/E has boosted the stock recently. This suggests that further share price appreciation will require an increase in profits.


Companies Should Show a Path to Accelerated Profit Growth Rather than Shareholder Returns

<ul>
<li>There are concerns about the ability of female directors hired solely for the purpose of recruiting women directors without a reasonable director nomination process to demonstrate strength on the BOD.</li>
<li>Board diversity issues were considered a low priority until more institutional investors voted against the top management of companies with zero female directors at shareholder meetings.</li>
<li>Given the small population of full-time female employees and the relatively young age bias, it's likely that even in 2030, most female board members will be relying on outside talent.</li>
</ul>


There are concerns about the ability of female directors hired solely for the purpose of recruiting women directors without a reasonable director nomination process to demonstrate strength on the BOD.
Board diversity issues were considered a low priority until more institutional investors voted against the top management of companies with zero female directors at shareholder meetings.
Given the small population of full-time female employees and the relatively young age bias, it's likely that even in 2030, most female board members will be relying on outside talent.


Even if Proper Nomination Process Is Skipped, It May Be Considered Better than Zero Women Directors

<ul>
<li>The TSE listing rules that include numerical targets for female board members are limited to prime market listed companies, so the majority of listed companies are not covered.</li>
<li>The "priority policy" on diversity is not budgeted or legislated. In the absence of underlying legislation, it is left to companies to decide how seriously they will implement it.</li>
<li>Regarding "30% or more female board members by 2030," if companies want to achieve this goal, they'll have to rely on female outside board members to make up the numbers.</li>
</ul>


The TSE listing rules that include numerical targets for female board members are limited to prime market listed companies, so the majority of listed companies are not covered.
The "priority policy" on diversity is not budgeted or legislated. In the absence of underlying legislation, it is left to companies to decide how seriously they will implement it.
Regarding "30% or more female board members by 2030," if companies want to achieve this goal, they'll have to rely on female outside board members to make up the numbers.


Diversity Is a Goal of Effort Left to a Company with a Sideways Eye on the Government's Seriousness

<ul>
<li>The relationship between % of female managers and P/B doesn't appear to be as strong as the significant correlation found between % of female directors and the value creation indices</li>
<li>Currently, companies in business categories where women have greater opportunities to play active roles (new business models) are appointing female employees to management positions, and such  companies have higher P/Bs.</li>
<li>Since the gender wage gap is attributed to % of female managers, unless a company has significant opportunities for women to play active roles, the gender wage gap is large.</li>
</ul>


The relationship between % of female managers and P/B doesn't appear to be as strong as the significant correlation found between % of female directors and the value creation indices
Currently, companies in business categories where women have greater opportunities to play active roles (new business models) are appointing female employees to management positions, and such  companies have higher P/Bs.
Since the gender wage gap is attributed to % of female managers, unless a company has significant opportunities for women to play active roles, the gender wage gap is large.


Limited Number of Business Types with Great Opportunities for Women Is at Heart of the Problem

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Companies Should Show a Path to Accelerated Profit Growth Rather than Shareholder Returns

I would like discuss the issues on the July 24 Nikkei article, Companies Improve Value by Honing the Art of Interacting with the Market."

Metrical Inc

Even if Proper Nomination Process Is Skipped, It May Be Considered Better than Zero Women Directors

I would like to discuss the issues on the July 20 Nikkei article, Harmonic Drive Systems' First Female Director in 53 Years: Competition Intensifies."

Metrical Inc

Diversity Is a Goal of Effort Left to a Company with a Sideways Eye on the Government's Seriousness

I would like to discuss the TSE's July 28 announcement of "Priority Policy on Women's Activities and Gender Equality 2023, regarding the...

Metrical Inc

Limited Number of Business Types with Great Opportunities for Women Is at Heart of the Problem

I would like to discuss the issues on the July 21 Nikkei Newspaper article "The More Female Managers, the Higher the P/B, Like Oriental Land and...

Metrical Inc