Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.</li>
<li>At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan's best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible</li>
<li>In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to "make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value." Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. </li>
</ul>


In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.
At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan's best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible
In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to "make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value." Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. 


The TSE's New 'Better' Index:  JPX Prime 150

<ul>
<li>On 8 May I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-foreign-investor-inflows-may-increase" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101617" rel="noopener">JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase</a>.  Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+. </li>
<li>Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&amp;P500. </li>
<li>The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while. </li>
</ul>


On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase.  Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+. 
Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&amp;P500. 
The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while. 


JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

<ul>
<li>For years I have tracked investor category flows in Japanese stocks because I find them quite informative. I write about them every so often in an insight series JAPAN FLOW.</li>
<li>The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically and that correlates well to one relatively simple indicator. </li>
<li>The policy backdrop points to greater corporate buying, greater foreign flow, greater selling by individuals and trust banks. The current timing probably matches. </li>
</ul>


For years I have tracked investor category flows in Japanese stocks because I find them quite informative. I write about them every so often in an insight series JAPAN FLOW.
The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically and that correlates well to one relatively simple indicator. 
The policy backdrop points to greater corporate buying, greater foreign flow, greater selling by individuals and trust banks. The current timing probably matches. 


JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>The reason why the approval for the shareholder proposal on profit appropriation exceeded 40% is that the proposal was easy to understand and easy to get approval from other shareholders.</li>
<li>Although domestic institutional investors don't currently vote against a low ROE when it comes to improvement measures, they may take a more aggressive stance if ISS raises its ROE criteria.</li>
<li>The trend of top management being reappointed even with continued low ROE is likely to continue for a while longer, but the time frame is definitely getting smaller.</li>
</ul>


The reason why the approval for the shareholder proposal on profit appropriation exceeded 40% is that the proposal was easy to understand and easy to get approval from other shareholders.
Although domestic institutional investors don't currently vote against a low ROE when it comes to improvement measures, they may take a more aggressive stance if ISS raises its ROE criteria.
The trend of top management being reappointed even with continued low ROE is likely to continue for a while longer, but the time frame is definitely getting smaller.


A Common Case of a Company with a Low ROE but with the Founding Family Serving as Successive CEOs

<ul>
<li>In addition to too much cash on hand to begin with, ROE is expected to continue to grow at a sluggish pace, as shareholder returns are less than profit growth.</li>
<li>Given that we expect more companies to have stock price, P/B, and ROE on the agenda for the June AGM, more companies are expected to announce increases in shareholder returns.</li>
<li>However, ROE is unlikely to increase significantly. Shareholder returns are certainly too small, but a more serious problem is the inability to find growth investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


In addition to too much cash on hand to begin with, ROE is expected to continue to grow at a sluggish pace, as shareholder returns are less than profit growth.
Given that we expect more companies to have stock price, P/B, and ROE on the agenda for the June AGM, more companies are expected to announce increases in shareholder returns.
However, ROE is unlikely to increase significantly. Shareholder returns are certainly too small, but a more serious problem is the inability to find growth investment opportunities.


Shareholder Returns Will Increase over June AGM, but Will Companies Hold up with Sluggish ROE?

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

The TSE's New 'Better' Index: JPX Prime 150

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Travis Lundy

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

Foreign Investor Flows in Japan matter. They always matter, and recently, more foreign investor flow has mattered more. History shows there is room...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase

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Travis Lundy

A Common Case of a Company with a Low ROE but with the Founding Family Serving as Successive CEOs

I would like to discuss the issues on the March 30 Nikkei article, "Ezaki Glico's Shareholders' Meeting Causes Ripples in the Era of "All Activist...

Metrical Inc

Shareholder Returns Will Increase over June AGM, but Will Companies Hold up with Sluggish ROE?

I would like to discuss the issues on the March 25 Nikkei article, "Shareholder Returns Reach a Record 25 Trillion Yen Due to Earnings Expansion...

Metrical Inc