Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>EPS and BPS had run in parallel since June 2022, but BPS has accelerated at a more rapid pace since May 2023, and TOPIX has risen sharply since April 2023.</li>
<li>Since TOPIX is more correlated with BPS than EPS, the hypothesis that "stock prices are more reliant on BPS increases, including cash increases, than on EPS" would be considered.</li>
<li>Investors may believe that Japanese management still needs more time to use cash effectively, and evaluate companies based on their BPS, which indicates a movement toward improved cash flow.</li>
</ul>


EPS and BPS had run in parallel since June 2022, but BPS has accelerated at a more rapid pace since May 2023, and TOPIX has risen sharply since April 2023.
Since TOPIX is more correlated with BPS than EPS, the hypothesis that "stock prices are more reliant on BPS increases, including cash increases, than on EPS" would be considered.
Investors may believe that Japanese management still needs more time to use cash effectively, and evaluate companies based on their BPS, which indicates a movement toward improved cash flow.


Investors Are Valuing Equities Thinking that Managers Are Still Slow to Put Cash to Good Use?

<ul>
<li>There are 167 companies of 1,784 companies in Metrical Universe (12/2023) with major shareholders holding over 50% stake, and 605 companies with major shareholders holding between 20% and 50% stake.</li>
<li>TSE has requests listed parent companies, listed subsidiaries, and affiliates to disclose the significance of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings. This will further increase pressure for the dissolution of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings.</li>
<li>Hitachi's transformation into value-creating company, which once spawned numerous listed subsidiaries, has been a success story since it began full-fledged "selection and concentration" process through the dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings.</li>
</ul>


There are 167 companies of 1,784 companies in Metrical Universe (12/2023) with major shareholders holding over 50% stake, and 605 companies with major shareholders holding between 20% and 50% stake.
TSE has requests listed parent companies, listed subsidiaries, and affiliates to disclose the significance of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings. This will further increase pressure for the dissolution of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings.
Hitachi's transformation into value-creating company, which once spawned numerous listed subsidiaries, has been a success story since it began full-fledged "selection and concentration" process through the dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings.


Increasing Pressure from Investors for Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary (Inc. Affiliates) Listings

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TSE and Government are pressuring low-PBR companies to DO SOMETHING to raise their PBR to &gt;1.0x. The easiest way to do that is raise ROE.</li>
<li>Raising R requires customers "agree" (buying more, paying a higher price, etc). Lowering E means buying back shares or paying big special dividends. That's easier for a company.</li>
<li>So buybacks have been increasing in number, and breadth, and to some degree in size. This insight describes the mechanics/details of how buybacks work in Japan.</li>
</ul>


The TSE and Government are pressuring low-PBR companies to DO SOMETHING to raise their PBR to &gt;1.0x. The easiest way to do that is raise ROE.
Raising R requires customers "agree" (buying more, paying a higher price, etc). Lowering E means buying back shares or paying big special dividends. That's easier for a company.
So buybacks have been increasing in number, and breadth, and to some degree in size. This insight describes the mechanics/details of how buybacks work in Japan.


<ul>
<li>In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.</li>
<li>At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan's best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible</li>
<li>In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to "make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value." Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. </li>
</ul>


In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.
At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan's best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible
In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to "make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value." Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. 


The TSE's New 'Better' Index:  JPX Prime 150

<ul>
<li>On 8 May I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-foreign-investor-inflows-may-increase" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101617" rel="noopener">JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase</a>.  Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+. </li>
<li>Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&amp;P500. </li>
<li>The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while. </li>
</ul>


On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase.  Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+. 
Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&amp;P500. 
The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while. 


JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Investors Are Valuing Equities Thinking that Managers Are Still Slow to Put Cash to Good Use?

I would like to discuss the issues on the December 26 Nikkei article, "Prime Listed Companies' Earnings Per Share at Record High."

Metrical Inc

Increasing Pressure from Investors for Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary (Inc. Affiliates) Listings

I would like to discuss the issues on the December 25 Nikkei article, "European money in 'dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings': Hitachi's...

Metrical Inc

The TSE's New 'Better' Index: JPX Prime 150

The TSE is launching a new JPX Prime 150 Index on 3 July 2023. It is 150 stocks with high PBRs and high "Equity Spread" (ROE vs cost of capital)...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

Foreign Investor Flows in Japan matter. They always matter, and recently, more foreign investor flow has mattered more. History shows there is room...

Travis Lundy

Investors Are Valuing Equities Thinking that Managers Are Still Slow to Put Cash to Good Use?

I would like to discuss the issues on the December 26 Nikkei article, "Prime Listed Companies' Earnings Per Share at Record High."

Metrical Inc

Increasing Pressure from Investors for Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary (Inc. Affiliates) Listings

I would like to discuss the issues on the December 25 Nikkei article, "European money in 'dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings': Hitachi's...

Metrical Inc

Share Buybacks In Japan - A 2023 Primer

This is a primer of Share Buybacks - types and processes - in Japan. As the TSE and Govt try to get PBRs up, it is worth understanding how...

Travis Lundy

The TSE's New 'Better' Index: JPX Prime 150

The TSE is launching a new JPX Prime 150 Index on 3 July 2023. It is 150 stocks with high PBRs and high "Equity Spread" (ROE vs cost of capital)...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

Foreign Investor Flows in Japan matter. They always matter, and recently, more foreign investor flow has mattered more. History shows there is room...

Travis Lundy