Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the global Discretionary vs. Staples ratio, price and RS deterioration for mainland China, Germany, and European Technology, and new lows in the NASDAQ Global Automobile index. Aside from Germany, other major indexes remain above support in Europe/UK and Japan.  We highlight a number of attractive opportunities in “defensive” Financials including electronic exchanges/markets, insurance, commercial/consumer financing, and select asset managers.

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the global Discretionary vs. Staples ratio, price and RS deterioration for mainland China, Germany, and European Technology, and new lows in the NASDAQ Global Automobile index. Aside from Germany, other major indexes remain above support in Europe/UK and Japan.  We highlight a number of attractive opportunities in “defensive” Financials including electronic exchanges/markets, insurance, commercial/consumer financing, and select asset managers.

Global Equity Strategy: More Cracks Begin to Show

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral...

Vermilion Research

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Guarded Optimism

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: More Cracks Begin to Show

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the...

Vermilion Research