Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. NDIVIA scores leading Tech to drive SPX +0.9% into the green; Closer to a Debt Limit Deal;  Marvell Tech reports - Bullish On AI</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs 0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 140 on dovish Ueda comments; NVIDIA drives Japan AI supply chain gains; Foreigners continue to pour into Japan for 8th week.</li>
<li>NUGGET. Calbee, worth a 2nd look after the recent share price sell-off given their very credible medium term business plan.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. NDIVIA scores leading Tech to drive SPX +0.9% into the green; Closer to a Debt Limit Deal;  Marvell Tech reports - Bullish On AI
JAPAN.  NKY Futs 0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 140 on dovish Ueda comments; NVIDIA drives Japan AI supply chain gains; Foreigners continue to pour into Japan for 8th week.
NUGGET. Calbee, worth a 2nd look after the recent share price sell-off given their very credible medium term business plan.


Ohayo Japan |Tech..no, NVIDIA All the Way; NUGGET: Calbee - Time for a 2nd Look ?

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Guidance for 1H of FY Mar-24 should be easy to beat. The sharp rebound that management is forecasting for 2H is open to question. </li>
<li>TSMC and Micron plan long-term expansion in Japan and Rapidus will be a new customer. But exports to China - the company's largest market - will be restricted.</li>
<li>The share price has spiked, but uncertainty is high, visibility is low and valuations are not compelling.Management's MAGIC medium-term targets look like ... magic. </li>
</ul>


Guidance for 1H of FY Mar-24 should be easy to beat. The sharp rebound that management is forecasting for 2H is open to question. 
TSMC and Micron plan long-term expansion in Japan and Rapidus will be a new customer. But exports to China - the company's largest market - will be restricted.
The share price has spiked, but uncertainty is high, visibility is low and valuations are not compelling.Management's MAGIC medium-term targets look like ... magic. 


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Dubious Guidance

<ul>
<li>Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. </li>
<li>JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire</li>
<li>Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments</li>
</ul>


Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. 
JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire
Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments


Japan Weekly | Nikkei +4.8% to 31 Year High, Advantest, Recruit, Makita

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan |Tech..no, NVIDIA All the Way; NUGGET: Calbee - Time for a 2nd Look ?

NVIDIA +24%. This says in All; NKY Futs 0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 140 on dovish Ueda comments; NVIDIA drives Japan AI supply chain gains;...

Mark Chadwick

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

Will the semiconductor market turn around? Revenues are likely to regain modest growth in the fourth quarter, but profits shouldn't return until...

Jim Handy