Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In 1H FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY1.12tn, operating profit of JPY313.9bn, and net income of JPY243.9bn.</li><li>The revised full-year forecast for FY03/25 includes revenue of JPY2.40tn and operating profit of JPY680.0bn.</li><li>The company announced a JPY70.0bn share buyback plan, acquiring up to 3.5mn shares, representing 0.8% of outstanding shares.</li></ul>

In 1H FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY1.12tn, operating profit of JPY313.9bn, and net income of JPY243.9bn.The revised full-year forecast for FY03/25 includes revenue of JPY2.40tn and operating profit of JPY680.0bn.The company announced a JPY70.0bn share buyback plan, acquiring up to 3.5mn shares, representing 0.8% of outstanding shares.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>TEL beats its 1H25 guidance by 12% at Net Income level, increases FY25 Net Income forecasts by 10%, increases dividend by 10%, plus a small share buyback (0.8% of outstanding). </li>
<li>Positive change in the product mix: Legacy capex (incl China) to decline in 2025, AI-related Capex to increase by ~50% YoY.</li>
<li>What’s not to like? The stock is trading at 21x FY25 EPS, 18x FY26, Consensus expects 34% EPS growth in FY25, 22% in FY26. </li>
</ul>


TEL beats its 1H25 guidance by 12% at Net Income level, increases FY25 Net Income forecasts by 10%, increases dividend by 10%, plus a small share buyback (0.8% of outstanding). 
Positive change in the product mix: Legacy capex (incl China) to decline in 2025, AI-related Capex to increase by ~50% YoY.
What’s not to like? The stock is trading at 21x FY25 EPS, 18x FY26, Consensus expects 34% EPS growth in FY25, 22% in FY26. 


Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

<ul><li>FY03/25 forecast: Revenue JPY2.30tn (+25.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY627.0bn (+37.4% YoY), Recurring profit JPY630.0bn (+36.0% YoY).</li><li>R&D investment plan: JPY1.5tn over FY03/25–FY03/29, with JPY253.0bn in FY03/25 for new development buildings and equipment.</li><li>Shareholder returns: JPY319.8bn total, including JPY79.9bn for share buybacks and JPY239.8bn for dividends.</li></ul>

FY03/25 forecast: Revenue JPY2.30tn (+25.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY627.0bn (+37.4% YoY), Recurring profit JPY630.0bn (+36.0% YoY).R&D investment plan: JPY1.5tn over FY03/25–FY03/29, with JPY253.0bn in FY03/25 for new development buildings and equipment.Shareholder returns: JPY319.8bn total, including JPY79.9bn for share buybacks and JPY239.8bn for dividends.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises <em>and</em> outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update

In 1H FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY1.12tn, operating profit of JPY313.9bn, and net income of JPY243.9bn. The revised full-year...

Shared Research

Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...

Nicolas Baratte

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 forecast: Revenue JPY2.30tn (+25.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY627.0bn (+37.4% YoY), Recurring profit JPY630.0bn (+36.0% YoY). R&D...

Shared Research

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update

In 1H FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY1.12tn, operating profit of JPY313.9bn, and net income of JPY243.9bn. The revised full-year...

Shared Research

Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

​TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...

Nicolas Baratte

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 forecast: Revenue JPY2.30tn (+25.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY627.0bn (+37.4% YoY), Recurring profit JPY630.0bn (+36.0% YoY). R&D...

Shared Research

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...