Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We view weakness in global equity markets over the past week as correcting a significant amount of the excess optimism. We recommend taking advantage of the pullback by adding exposure to our favorite areas - namely Technology. Our overall outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of all major markets and highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Technology and Communications sectors.</p>

We view weakness in global equity markets over the past week as correcting a significant amount of the excess optimism. We recommend taking advantage of the pullback by adding exposure to our favorite areas - namely Technology. Our overall outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of all major markets and highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Technology and Communications sectors.

Global-Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Add Exposure To Technology, Communications

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/837/original/2019-01-18_11-35-42.png?1547778954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75837"></figure>
<p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div>
<p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</p>
<p><strong>RPS STATISTICS</strong> - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. </p>
<p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4908" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15862" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13435" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1">Bandai Namco (7832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote (7532 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/838/original/2019-01-18_11-36-19.png?1547778995" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75838"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/839/original/2019-01-18_11-37-01.png?1547779035" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75839"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/840/original/2019-01-18_11-37-37.png?1547779070" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75840"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/841/original/2019-01-18_11-38-07.png?1547779100" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75841"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">
<p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div>
<p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-score-update-overbought-and-oversold-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25849">Insight</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/842/original/2019-01-18_11-39-56.png?1547779218" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75842"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/843/original/2019-01-18_11-42-06.png?1547779350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75843"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p style="text-align: left;">In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>NB - All data is as of January 17th close.</strong></p>
</div>



Source: Japan Analytics

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.
RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. 
RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been Descente (8114 JP),  Ariake Japan (2815 JP), Fancl (4921 JP), Bandai Namco (7832 JP), Don Quijote (7532 JP), and Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP).





Source: Japan Analytics

RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been LINE Corp (3938 JP) - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last Insight, and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).


Source: Japan Analytics

In the DETAIL section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.
NB - All data is as of January 17th close.


Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong> - The final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period. Please refer to Part 1 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-scoring-results-forecasts-earnings-momentum-slowing-weaker-required" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20302">Japan: Scoring Results &amp; Forecasts</a> for more details on the scoring methodology. The tables below give the top and bottom five companies in each category.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RESULTS SCORE TOP 5</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/547/original/2018-05-27_18-38-25.png?1527413921" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53547"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 5</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/548/original/2018-05-27_18-41-29.png?1527414102" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53548"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten percent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. Rows are colour-coded based on the sector to which each company belongs. </div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>FORECAST/REVISION SCORE TOP 5</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/551/original/2018-05-27_18-47-10.png?1527414449" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53551"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>FORECAST/REVISION SCORE BOTTOM 5</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/552/original/2018-05-27_18-47-59.png?1527414502" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53552"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. </div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>FORECAST/REVISION SCORE &amp; RESULTS SCORE DIFFERENCE TOP 5</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/555/original/2018-05-27_18-53-42.png?1527414845" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53555"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>FORECAST/REVISION SCORE &amp; RESULTS SCORE DIFFERENCE BOTTOM 5</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/556/original/2018-05-27_18-54-24.png?1527414885" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53556"></figure><div class="content-caption">All tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics</div><p>In addition, we provide five actionable longs and five actionable shorts where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and relative prices.</p>

INTRODUCTION - The final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period. Please refer to Part 1 Japan: Scoring Results &amp; Forecasts for more details on the scoring methodology. The tables below give the top and bottom five companies in each category.RESULTS SCORE TOP 5RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 5Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten percent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. Rows are colour-coded based on the sector to which each company belongs. FORECAST/REVISION SCORE TOP 5FORECAST/REVISION SCORE BOTTOM 5Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. FORECAST/REVISION SCORE &amp; RESULTS SCORE DIFFERENCE TOP 5FORECAST/REVISION SCORE &amp; RESULTS SCORE DIFFERENCE BOTTOM 5All tables &gt; Source: Japan AnalyticsIn addition, we provide five actionable longs and five actionable shorts where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and relative prices.

Japan: Scoring Results & Forecasts - Part 3 - Company Winners & Losers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>This week I briefly look at recent bifurcations in: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21536" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21536:1">Renault SA (RNO FP)</a> wherein the French government reduced its stake to 15.1% from 19.8%;  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8122" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8122:1">Kingboard Chemical Holdings (148 HK)</a>, which sold its entire 9.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/243" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> to Qatar Airways; amongst others.</p><p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed as a % - of at least 20%.</p><p>A detailed NAV for a number of these parent/holding relationships highlighted can be found in our holdco monitor.</p>

This week I briefly look at recent bifurcations in: Renault SA (RNO FP) wherein the French government reduced its stake to 15.1% from 19.8%;  Kingboard Chemical Holdings (148 HK), which sold its entire 9.6% stake in Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) to Qatar Airways; amongst others.These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed as a % - of at least 20%.A detailed NAV for a number of these parent/holding relationships highlighted can be found in our holdco monitor.

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: Renault, Kingboard

Japan

TOEI COMPANY, LTD. produces and distributes movies, television programs, and video software.  The Company also manages direct-run movie theaters.

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Toei Co Ltd (9605 JP)

Global-Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Add Exposure To Technology, Communications

We view weakness in global equity markets over the past week as correcting a significant amount of the excess optimism. We recommend taking...

Vermilion Research

Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Scoring Results & Forecasts - Part 3 - Company Winners & Losers

INTRODUCTION - The final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters...

Campbell Gunn

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: Renault, Kingboard

This week I briefly look at recent bifurcations in: Renault SA (RNO FP) wherein the French government reduced its stake to 15.1% from...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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