Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include <strong>Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities</strong>.</p>

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/586/original/2020-09-02_15-03-28.png?1599026640" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156586"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>NEV IN JAPAN</strong> - Japan has a reputation for being the world's leading market for finding listed companies with negative Enterprise Value (NEV). Based on a sample of 842,133 traded months for the 3,826 currently-listed non-financial companies in our universe since 1993, NEV-traded months represent 8%. One thousand and eleven companies have spent at least one month with a negative EV and the average NEV 'period' is just over two years.  The number of NEV companies has varied over the last thirty years, from only one in 1994 (Sanyu Construction 1841 JP) to a peak of 437 in 2009 - 15.4% of the universe. In the last two years, the percentage has doubled to 10% or 366 companies, most of which are small-cap.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/590/original/2020-09-02_15-13-33.png?1599027223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156590"></figure>
<p><strong>50 BPS</strong> -Accordingly, the aggregate (inverted) value of NEV stocks is ¥2.5 trillion or just 50 basis points of the aggregate of the universe. Nevertheless, the current value is at the upper end of the thirty-year range. We have excluded four non-financial companies - Z Holdings, Rakuten, Japan Post, and Sony - as they have financial subsidiaries on their balance sheets.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/595/original/2020-09-02_15-36-40.png?1599028611" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156595"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/866/original/2020-09-03_16-43-25.png?1599119017" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156866"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/596/original/2020-09-02_15-37-56.png?1599028687" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156596"></figure>
<p><strong>NEV 'BUYS'</strong> - Brief periods, and occasionally extended, when higher-quality companies dip into NEV are often good long-term buying opportunities as shown above with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol (2181 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-animation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18641:1" rel="noopener">Toei Animation (4816 JP)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP)</a>. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/623/original/2020-09-02_17-57-38.png?1599037069" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156623"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/625/original/2020-09-02_18-04-05.png?1599037457" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156625"></figure>
<p><strong>NEV 'TRAPS'</strong> - Conversely, NEV can persist for years, 'trapping' both value investors and activists, particularly where management remain 'cloth-eared' such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-broadcasting-system" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12981:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Broadcasting System (9401 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP).</a></p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we will review the current large-cap NEV companies, as well the most persistent and the largest peak to trough NEV ranges and make some specific stock recommendations.</p>
</div>


Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
NEV IN JAPAN - Japan has a reputation for being the world's leading market for finding listed companies with negative Enterprise Value (NEV). Based on a sample of 842,133 traded months for the 3,826 currently-listed non-financial companies in our universe since 1993, NEV-traded months represent 8%. One thousand and eleven companies have spent at least one month with a negative EV and the average NEV 'period' is just over two years.  The number of NEV companies has varied over the last thirty years, from only one in 1994 (Sanyu Construction 1841 JP) to a peak of 437 in 2009 - 15.4% of the universe. In the last two years, the percentage has doubled to 10% or 366 companies, most of which are small-cap.

50 BPS -Accordingly, the aggregate (inverted) value of NEV stocks is ¥2.5 trillion or just 50 basis points of the aggregate of the universe. Nevertheless, the current value is at the upper end of the thirty-year range. We have excluded four non-financial companies - Z Holdings, Rakuten, Japan Post, and Sony - as they have financial subsidiaries on their balance sheets.



NEV 'BUYS' - Brief periods, and occasionally extended, when higher-quality companies dip into NEV are often good long-term buying opportunities as shown above with Persol (2181 JP), Toei Animation (4816 JP)  and Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP). 


NEV 'TRAPS' - Conversely, NEV can persist for years, 'trapping' both value investors and activists, particularly where management remain 'cloth-eared' such as Tokyo Broadcasting System (9401 JP) and Toppan Printing (7911 JP).

In the DETAIL section below, we will review the current large-cap NEV companies, as well the most persistent and the largest peak to trough NEV ranges and make some specific stock recommendations.


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Looking for Value in Negative Enterprise Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

<p>This week in <strong>StubWorld</strong> ...</p>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15379:1" rel="noopener">Toei Co Ltd (9605 JP)</a> is coming up "cheap" versus 40.4%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-animation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18641:1" rel="noopener">Toei Animation (4816 JP)</a>.</p>
<p>And despite local media reports, the conversion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental Intl (MAND SP)</a>'s Excelsior Hotel into an office building continues unabated.</p>
</div>
</div>
<p>Preceding my comments on <strong>Toei</strong> &amp; <strong>MAND</strong> are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<div class="content-remarks">
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
</div>

This week in StubWorld ...


Toei Co Ltd (9605 JP) is coming up "cheap" versus 40.4%-held Toei Animation (4816 JP).
And despite local media reports, the conversion of Mandarin Oriental Intl (MAND SP)'s Excelsior Hotel into an office building continues unabated.


Preceding my comments on Toei &amp; MAND are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.



Travis Lundy

<p>I expected an "easy" Tender Offer in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandai-namco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1" rel="noopener">Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP)</a>'s "cleanup" of Gundam merchandising IP licensee/owner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sotsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12978:1" rel="noopener">Sotsu Co Ltd (3711 JP)</a> founder Nasu Yuji's 49.2% stake, which then leads to Bandai Namco owning more than two-thirds, which allows Bandai Namco to squeeze out minorities. Done at a 66% premium to last close and an EV/EBITDA multiple of almost 10x, with almost 90% of the register easily accounted for, I had expected this to go quite smoothly. </p><p>While it is not a knock-out price, given the founder is selling out his 49.2%, I had not expected anyone would come out against it vocally, but someone has. </p><p>RMB Capital (“RMB”), an independent investment advisory firm based in Chicago, issued a <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191105006284/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> early this morning Asia time outlining their beef. This is a burger with multiple patties.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/769/original/Screenshot%202019-11-06%20at%209.52.17%20AM.png?1573005152" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104769"></figure><div class="content-caption">excerpt from the <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191105006284/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Press Release</a>
</div><p>RMB explains their issues in more detail, and they are interesting. </p><p>I dig in below.</p><p>And because it is Sotsu... I offer a gratuitous Gundam gif (the cool retro "tokusatsu" vids are in the previous piece <em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bandai-namco-gets-that-last-bit-of-gundam-tender-offer-for-sotsu-3711-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:33017" rel="noopener">Bandai Namco Gets That Last Bit of Gundam: Tender Offer for Sotsu (3711 JP)</a> </em></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/826/original/gundam.gif?1573019136" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104826"></figure><hr><p><em>For more about the rules, regulations, quirks, and foibles of Japanese M&amp;A, please see the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-japan-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28911" rel="noopener">Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide 2019</a>.</em></p>

I expected an "easy" Tender Offer in Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP)'s "cleanup" of Gundam merchandising IP licensee/owner Sotsu Co Ltd (3711 JP) founder Nasu Yuji's 49.2% stake, which then leads to Bandai Namco owning more than two-thirds, which allows Bandai Namco to squeeze out minorities. Done at a 66% premium to last close and an EV/EBITDA multiple of almost 10x, with almost 90% of the register easily accounted for, I had expected this to go quite smoothly. While it is not a knock-out price, given the founder is selling out his 49.2%, I had not expected anyone would come out against it vocally, but someone has. RMB Capital (“RMB”), an independent investment advisory firm based in Chicago, issued a press release early this morning Asia time outlining their beef. This is a burger with multiple patties.excerpt from the Press Release
RMB explains their issues in more detail, and they are interesting. I dig in below.And because it is Sotsu... I offer a gratuitous Gundam gif (the cool retro "tokusatsu" vids are in the previous piece Bandai Namco Gets That Last Bit of Gundam: Tender Offer for Sotsu (3711 JP) For more about the rules, regulations, quirks, and foibles of Japanese M&amp;A, please see the Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide 2019.

Gundam Gets Jiggy - A Voice Cries "Chotto Matte"

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> •</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/178/original/2019-09-06_09-42-35.png?1567730614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98178"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> has just joined <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p></div><div></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/046/original/2019-09-05_12-46-46.png?1567655232" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98046"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/055/original/2019-09-05_13-06-30.png?1567656423" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.</p><p><strong>RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken (9987 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomart-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1301:1" rel="noopener">Infomart (2492 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichirei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7168:1" rel="noopener">Nichirei (2871 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/096/original/2019-09-05_16-25-39.png?1567668352" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98096"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/097/original/2019-09-05_16-27-09.png?1567668441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98097"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/098/original/2019-09-05_16-28-42.png?1567668548" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98098"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/099/original/2019-09-05_16-30-29.png?1567668640" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98099"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •</strong></p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/056/original/2019-09-05_13-12-52.png?1567656806" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98056"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the<strong> REITs</strong> Sector and the continuing demise of <strong>Regional Banks</strong>.</p><p><strong>RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/100/original/2019-09-05_16-35-47.png?1567668972" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98100"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/102/original/2019-09-05_16-36-50.png?1567669047" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98102"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p>As we noted in our June <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-scores-overbought-oversold-companies-june-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30393" rel="noopener">Insight: -</a></p><blockquote><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a></strong>- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and <strong>the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year,</strong> there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   </p></blockquote><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current<strong> Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5</strong>), <strong>Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5)</strong> and <strong>Oversold (RPS &lt;-2)</strong> stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Lasertec (6920 JP) has just joined Goldwin (8111 JP) in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Suzuken (9987 JP), Infomart (2492 JP), Nichirei (2871 JP), and Fancl (4921 JP). Source: Japan Analytics• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the REITs Sector and the continuing demise of Regional Banks.RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) and LINE (3938 JP).Source: Japan AnalyticsAs we noted in our June Insight: -LINE (3938 JP)- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year, there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   In the DETAIL section below, we list the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • September Relative Price Scores - Life at the Poles Part 2: Companies

Japan

FUJI MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., a member of the Fuji-Sankei Group, produces and broadcasts a variety of television programs and sells commercial spots through a network system.  The Company is advancing into digital satellite broadcasting.

KADOKAWA DWANGO CORP is a holding company established through the merger of DWAN GO and KADOKAWA. The company publishes a variety of books and magazines as well as produces movies and videos.  KADOKAWA DWANGO CORP also develops and makes int ernet communication tools for cellular phones.

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

HAKUHODO DY HOLDINGS INCORPORATED is a holding company established through the merger of Hakuhodo Inc., Daiko Advertising Inc., and Yomiko Advertising Inc. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides comprehensive advertising services.

Nippon Television Holdings Inc is a commercial television broadcaster which provides programs through a national network system.  The Company is expanding into digital satellite broadcasting. Nippon Television also operates publication and entertainment business such as concerts and exhibitions. The Company is affiliated with Yomiuri Shimbun.

TOKYO BROADCASTING SYSTEM HOLDINGS, INC. is a media company that broadcasts television and radio programs nationally.  The Company offers a variety of TV programs & film production, visual & music software production, and cable television programming.  Tokyo Broadcasting System provides digital satellite broadcasting services and also operates real estate business.

SKY Perfect JSAT Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. As a group, the Company provides broadcasting and data transmission services via satellites. SKY Perfect JSAT delivers digital TV programs including movies, music, sports and entertainment to its subscribers.

TOEI COMPANY, LTD. produces and distributes movies, television programs, and video software.  The Company also manages direct-run movie theaters.

DAIICHIKOSHO CO., LTD. manufactures, sells, and, leases karaoke equipment and software.  The Company also operates karaoke booth chains called Big Echo, provides karaoke software via cable line called DAM, and participates in broadcasting via satellite.

TV Asahi Holdings Corporation produces and broadcasts a variety of television programs mainly in the Tokyo area. The Company sells commercial spots through a network system. TV Asahi also provides patent maintenance for music publication, entertainment planning, sales of broadcasting equipment, and TV shopping.

DISH Network Corp. provides a direct broadcast satellite subscription television, audio programming and interactive television services to commercial and residential subscribers in the United States.

Beijing Enlight Media Company Limited invest, produces and distributes television programs, films and teleplays. The Company's major products include TV shows, TV entertainment programs, films and drama series.

Cinemark Holdings, Inc. operates movie theaters.  The Company operates in the United States and Latin America.

Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited publishes, distributes books, publications and audio-visual products, and sells cultural goods. The Company's main products include textbooks, teaching aids, and general books.

Chinese Universe Publishing and MediaCo., Ltd. manufactures enamel-covered wires and other copper wires.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures buses and related parts.

Chinese Universe Publishing&Media (600373 CH)

TEGNA Inc. is an international broadcasting and digital media company. The Company owns and operates television and radio stations, delivering news and informative content. TEGNA also provides digital marketing solutions in the automotive, human capital and digital marketing industries for individuals and businesses.

Sun TV Network Ltd. offers television channels. The Company operates Tamil and Malayalam language channels in southern India.

China South Publishing & Media Group Company Ltd. is a media company.  The Company prints, publishes and distributes books, newspapers and journals; develops audio-visual materials; and offers digital publishing services.

Telenet Group Holding NV provides telephone and internet services through a network of fiber-optic and coaxial cable.  The company offers customized packages to businesses and individual clients in Belgium.

Eutelsat Communications is a KU-band satellite operator.  The Company offers television and radio broadcasting, video broadcasting, corporate networks, Internet access, and mobile communications.  Eutelsat serves Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, eastern North America, and South America.

TOEI ANIMATION CO., LTD. plans and produces animated cartoon movies.  The Company also grants broadcasting rights and licenses for other companies to produce and sell the animated characters' merchandise.  Toei Animation stages its own promotional shows and events to advertise movies.

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Toei Animation (4816 JP)

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