Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai remains our sole best value pick among the Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, delivering double digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best returns of the peer group, with reassuring metrics in terms of credit quality</li>
<li>Its share price is the best performer year-to-date, but we still see it to be attractively valued and the recent correction is a buying opportunity</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai remains our sole best value pick among the Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, delivering double digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best returns of the peer group, with reassuring metrics in terms of credit quality
Its share price is the best performer year-to-date, but we still see it to be attractively valued and the recent correction is a buying opportunity


Thai Banks 3Q24 Screener; Krung Thai Offers the Best Value Relative to the Returns Outlook

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.</li>
<li>The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%</li>
<li>The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing &amp; commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ</li>
</ul>


Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.
The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%
The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing &amp; commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ


Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

<ul>
<li>We are positive on Bank Ayudhya; it ranks top in terms of pre-provision and second in post-provision profitability, as well as screening well on credit quality metrics and valuations</li>
<li>We also like TMBThanchart, with its further improvement in 3Q22 cost of risk and incrementally better pre-provision returns</li>
<li>Krung Thai remains attractive on valuations and on our returns and credit quality screens, but is, in our view, less compelling than Ayudhya and TMBThanchart</li>
</ul>


We are positive on Bank Ayudhya; it ranks top in terms of pre-provision and second in post-provision profitability, as well as screening well on credit quality metrics and valuations
We also like TMBThanchart, with its further improvement in 3Q22 cost of risk and incrementally better pre-provision returns
Krung Thai remains attractive on valuations and on our returns and credit quality screens, but is, in our view, less compelling than Ayudhya and TMBThanchart


Thai Banks 3Q22 Screener; Bank Ayudhya Stands Out

<ul>
<li>The six Thai banks that we cover all have relatively healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; also, positive cost of risk trends support the earnings outlook</li>
<li>Of these, Krung Thai Bank stands out, with its low cost of risk, healthy post-provision profitability versus peers and its undemanding valuation multiples along with its low PEG ratio</li>
<li>TMBThanchart is one to watch in the deep value category, especially given its attractive cost of risk trends to 2Q22</li>
</ul>


The six Thai banks that we cover all have relatively healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; also, positive cost of risk trends support the earnings outlook
Of these, Krung Thai Bank stands out, with its low cost of risk, healthy post-provision profitability versus peers and its undemanding valuation multiples along with its low PEG ratio
TMBThanchart is one to watch in the deep value category, especially given its attractive cost of risk trends to 2Q22


Thai Banks 2Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Stands Out

Thailand

TMB Bank Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services. The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, and investment banking services to its customers throughout Thailand.  It also has branches in Hong Kong, Laos, and Cayman Island.

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TMB Bank PCL (TMB-R TB)

Thai Banks 3Q24 Screener; Krung Thai Offers the Best Value Relative to the Returns Outlook

Krung Thai continues to stand out as our top pick among Thai banks, with its sound profitability, high ROE, solid balance sheet and attractive...

Victor Galliano

Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

BBL is seeing dwindling loan balances in its core segment - manufacturing and commercial loans are -4% YTD. And what's worse: its NPLs are surging,...

Daniel Tabbush

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Thai Banks 3Q22 Screener; Bank Ayudhya Stands Out

Of the Thai banks, Bank Ayudhya screens best on a blend of returns, credit quality & valuations; TMB Thanachart returns are improving and Krung...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 2Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Stands Out

Thai Banks 2Q22 screener highlights Krung Thai; it trades on undemanding valuations and a low PEG whilst its fundamentals show its has its low cost...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thai Banks 3Q24 Screener; Krung Thai Offers the Best Value Relative to the Returns Outlook

​Krung Thai continues to stand out as our top pick among Thai banks, with its sound profitability, high ROE, solid balance sheet and attractive...

Victor Galliano

Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

BBL is seeing dwindling loan balances in its core segment - manufacturing and commercial loans are -4% YTD. And what's worse: its NPLs are surging,...

Daniel Tabbush

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Thai Banks 3Q22 Screener; Bank Ayudhya Stands Out

Of the Thai banks, Bank Ayudhya screens best on a blend of returns, credit quality & valuations; TMB Thanachart returns are improving and Krung...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 2Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Stands Out

Thai Banks 2Q22 screener highlights Krung Thai; it trades on undemanding valuations and a low PEG whilst its fundamentals show its has its low cost...

Victor Galliano

Krung Thai continues to stand out as our top pick among Thai banks, with its sound profitability, high ROE, solid balance sheet and attractive...