Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The story for Japan's banks is multifaceted with several line items working in tandem to support profit and profit delta</li>
<li>Net interest income strength that we see with MUFG, SMFG, Chiba and SBI Sumishin Net Bank can continue, given outlook on loans and pricing</li>
<li>Delta in credit costs is generally benign, allowing good flow through, with a recurring nature of equity trading gains - a unique feature in Japan banking</li>
</ul>


The story for Japan's banks is multifaceted with several line items working in tandem to support profit and profit delta
Net interest income strength that we see with MUFG, SMFG, Chiba and SBI Sumishin Net Bank can continue, given outlook on loans and pricing
Delta in credit costs is generally benign, allowing good flow through, with a recurring nature of equity trading gains - a unique feature in Japan banking


Japan Banks - Net Interest Income, Credit Cost, Trading Gains, All Support Profit

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,180/1,175 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,203 (25-day EMA) points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a zig-zag down pattern as it searches for the bottom, with the broader range seen between 1,100-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, it has been trading within a narrow range of 1,180-1,195 points over the past five trading days, awaiting a breakout to determine the next direction: i) a return to the downtrend to retest the previous low of 1,157.96 points, or ii) a sideways move followed by an upside breakout to test the 25-day EMA resistance at 1,203 points. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,180/1,175 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,203 (25-day EMA) points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a zig-zag down pattern as it searches for the bottom, with the broader range seen between 1,100-1,506 points.In the short term, it has been trading within a narrow range of 1,180-1,195 points over the past five trading days, awaiting a breakout to determine the next direction: i) a return to the downtrend to retest the previous low of 1,157.96 points, or ii) a sideways move followed by an upside breakout to test the 25-day EMA resistance at 1,203 points. 

KTX Zoom - Expiration of Derivatives Contracts & US PCE/Core PCE in February

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,185 (10-day EMA) and 1,180 points and the resistance at 1,195 and 1,200 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend following a zig-zag down pattern, seeking the bottom within the range of 1,100-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the market is at a decision point: (i) whether to resume its downtrend and retest the previous low of 1,157.96, or (ii) move sideways and test the resistance at the 25-day EMA of 1,204 points, which could signal the start of a new bullish cycle. Strategy: sell on rallies and consider buying back when a clear technical uptrend signal emerges.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,185 (10-day EMA) and 1,180 points and the resistance at 1,195 and 1,200 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend following a zig-zag down pattern, seeking the bottom within the range of 1,100-1,506 points.In the short term, the market is at a decision point: (i) whether to resume its downtrend and retest the previous low of 1,157.96, or (ii) move sideways and test the resistance at the 25-day EMA of 1,204 points, which could signal the start of a new bullish cycle. Strategy: sell on rallies and consider buying back when a clear technical uptrend signal emerges.

KTX Zoom - US 4Q24 GDP/PCE/Core PCE and Trade Balance

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support levels at 1,174/1,166 points and the resistance at 1,191/1,195/1,200 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend with a zig-zag down pattern, searching for the bottom within the range of 1,100-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index has reverted to a downtrend, likely to retest its previous low, after weakening yesterday and nearly falling below the 10-day EMA, which it had just broken above last Wednesday. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support levels at 1,174/1,166 points and the resistance at 1,191/1,195/1,200 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend with a zig-zag down pattern, searching for the bottom within the range of 1,100-1,506 points.In the short term, the index has reverted to a downtrend, likely to retest its previous low, after weakening yesterday and nearly falling below the 10-day EMA, which it had just broken above last Wednesday. 

KTX Zoom - Vote of Confidence Result for Prime Minister and US Durable Goods Data

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers</li>
<li>Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers
Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx


Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

Thailand

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services.  The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, asset management and investment banking services, to customers through its nationwide branches. It also has branches in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Laos, and Cayman Islands.

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Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)

Japan Banks - Net Interest Income, Credit Cost, Trading Gains, All Support Profit

While macro story seems strong and improving for Japan's banks we see at the micro level, there are several line items all working in favor of net...

Daniel Tabbush

KTX Zoom - Expiration of Derivatives Contracts & US PCE/Core PCE in February

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,180/1,175 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,203 (25-day...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - US 4Q24 GDP/PCE/Core PCE and Trade Balance

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,185 (10-day EMA) and 1,180 points and the resistance at 1,195 and...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - Vote of Confidence Result for Prime Minister and US Durable Goods Data

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support levels at 1,174/1,166 points and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

We emphasize Krung Thai as our core value pick among Thai banks; its strong capital ratios, healthy credit quality and premium returns warrant its...

Victor Galliano

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