Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>, SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX), SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Thai banks are leveraged to re-opening the country to tourism. They are also leveraged to a newly proposed NPL warehouse scheme.  Where re-opening and NPL warehouse move in tandem, Thai banks can be golden.

Thai banks are leveraged to re-opening the country to tourism. They are also leveraged to a newly proposed NPL warehouse scheme.  Where re-opening and NPL warehouse move in tandem, Thai banks can be golden.

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Real credit fundamentals have yet to catch-up with spreads in bonds which continue to outperform. True fundamentals have a considerable gap to close relative to spread compression. Global monetary accommodation is in large part responsible for recent outperformance. However, credit tourists may have booked too early.Deeply subordinated Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds led in terms of spread tightening during January in Asia. Increased risk tolerance and a reach for yield, possibly by credit tourists, drove results as global vaccination efforts raised economic growth expectations. As such, Hong Kong and Thai- based bank securities outperformed, albeit for differing reasons.As Asia-headquartered banks report earnings, the quality of disclosure varies considerably from bank-to-bank. Even where disclosure is adequate, asset quality indicators may greatly underestimate the level of troubled debt due to continued forbearance, restructuring efforts and early-stage aging. This is driving provisioning costs lower than would be expected in a more normal operating environment. The value of these reports is significantly diminished for credit investors. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discovery. As such, credit value should remain driven by larger market forces.In terms of economic growth, the IMF projects 11.5% and 8.1% GDP growth this year for India and China, respectively. The near-term future is South Asian, but this may not apply to all. Most India-headquartered banks already price-in considerable recovery prospects. However, significant bank recapitalized in needed for the economic forecasts to materialize and for these banks spreads to be maintained.Eventually, it will be time to deliver real fundamental performance. In the meantime, monetary accommodation should remain the main driver of credit spreads while economic growth plays catch-up. Credit tourists are fickle and may vacate if either are delayed.

Real credit fundamentals have yet to catch-up with spreads in bonds which continue to outperform. True fundamentals have a considerable gap to close relative to spread compression. Global monetary accommodation is in large part responsible for recent outperformance. However, credit tourists may have booked too early.Deeply subordinated Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds led in terms of spread tightening during January in Asia. Increased risk tolerance and a reach for yield, possibly by credit tourists, drove results as global vaccination efforts raised economic growth expectations. As such, Hong Kong and Thai- based bank securities outperformed, albeit for differing reasons.As Asia-headquartered banks report earnings, the quality of disclosure varies considerably from bank-to-bank. Even where disclosure is adequate, asset quality indicators may greatly underestimate the level of troubled debt due to continued forbearance, restructuring efforts and early-stage aging. This is driving provisioning costs lower than would be expected in a more normal operating environment. The value of these reports is significantly diminished for credit investors. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discovery. As such, credit value should remain driven by larger market forces.In terms of economic growth, the IMF projects 11.5% and 8.1% GDP growth this year for India and China, respectively. The near-term future is South Asian, but this may not apply to all. Most India-headquartered banks already price-in considerable recovery prospects. However, significant bank recapitalized in needed for the economic forecasts to materialize and for these banks spreads to be maintained.Eventually, it will be time to deliver real fundamental performance. In the meantime, monetary accommodation should remain the main driver of credit spreads while economic growth plays catch-up. Credit tourists are fickle and may vacate if either are delayed.

Bank Credit Compass: Credit Tourist May Vacate if Real Fundamentals Do Not Catch-Up

Ironically, a distracted and internally divided US Congress combined with an accommodative Fed could be bullish for risk assets and simultaneously reduce bearish fixed income pressures. For bond investors, it could be reassuring that the Goldilocks election outcome remains as political balances keep the US government from undertaking an even larger, more sustained, reflationary fiscal push. This could benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.Some observers worry, rightly so, that the trial of former President Trump threatens to elongate the political divide in the U.S. This could make it more difficult for President Biden to effectively deliver on his fiscal spending plans in a timely manner while economic activity indicators soften. In addition, expectations that President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan may be materially watered-down, by almost one-half, raised expectations that Fed accommodation would be extended longer than anticipated when the stimulus plan was first announced. As such, the current distraction may be credit positive. Meanwhile, U.S. CCC-rated indexes compressed into uncharted territory as CCC-index yields hit all-time lows. Asia risk asset followed, although the credit spread relationship between these two geographies remains far from the norm.  We note that credits only have limited upside in the reflation scenario.  Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-weekly-moving-the-goal-posts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46889" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts</a> for more on this. A delay in the reflation scenario could also benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.In addition, just as the US-dollar media narrative began to change from one of universal weakening to strengthening, US-dollar strengthening stopped. Declining odds on a large federal stimulus package likely arrested dollar strength. We present our US-dollar views inside and why it may be short-term Asia credit positive.Meanwhile, Fed officials are not reading from the same song sheet. Admonishing others to avoid asset purchase tapering discussions at the Fed is tantamount to a Say no Evil, Hear no Evil strategy. This is misguided as an open discussion could limit volatility once tapering begins. Please see last week’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-weekly-distractions-may-drive-markets-near-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47117" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Weekly: Distractions May Drive Markets Near Term</a> for more on this. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the FOMC’s decisions on Wednesday, 27 January.Against this backdrop, almost all of Asia’s bank debt tightened during the week. Improved risk sentiment, the arrest of a stronger US-dollar, EM inflows and country specific announcements drove these results. In particular, the Reserve Bank of India’s proposal to revise the regulatory framework for India’s non-bank finance companies likely had a positive impact on the US-dollar bonds of these institutions.Several Asia-headquartered banks reported earnings as the week ended and into the weekend. Asia bank earnings season is upon us. However, we note that asset quality indicators at many banks greatly underestimate the level of troubled debt within the institution as forbearance measures remain in place in several operating environments. This is driving provisioning costs lower than would be expected in a more normal operating environment. The value of these earnings reports is significantly diminished for credit investors. As such, credit value should remain driven by larger market forces.Market Outlook: The distraction of another set of impeachment proceedings could turn out to be market friendly if it results in more targeted stimulus. Outside of the Washington beltway, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on when the Fed begins to taper its asset purchases. Credit has limited upside in a fast reflation scenario. A slower, more contained, reflation environment could be Emerging Market credit supportive.

Ironically, a distracted and internally divided US Congress combined with an accommodative Fed could be bullish for risk assets and simultaneously reduce bearish fixed income pressures. For bond investors, it could be reassuring that the Goldilocks election outcome remains as political balances keep the US government from undertaking an even larger, more sustained, reflationary fiscal push. This could benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.Some observers worry, rightly so, that the trial of former President Trump threatens to elongate the political divide in the U.S. This could make it more difficult for President Biden to effectively deliver on his fiscal spending plans in a timely manner while economic activity indicators soften. In addition, expectations that President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan may be materially watered-down, by almost one-half, raised expectations that Fed accommodation would be extended longer than anticipated when the stimulus plan was first announced. As such, the current distraction may be credit positive. Meanwhile, U.S. CCC-rated indexes compressed into uncharted territory as CCC-index yields hit all-time lows. Asia risk asset followed, although the credit spread relationship between these two geographies remains far from the norm.  We note that credits only have limited upside in the reflation scenario.  Please see Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts for more on this. A delay in the reflation scenario could also benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.In addition, just as the US-dollar media narrative began to change from one of universal weakening to strengthening, US-dollar strengthening stopped. Declining odds on a large federal stimulus package likely arrested dollar strength. We present our US-dollar views inside and why it may be short-term Asia credit positive.Meanwhile, Fed officials are not reading from the same song sheet. Admonishing others to avoid asset purchase tapering discussions at the Fed is tantamount to a Say no Evil, Hear no Evil strategy. This is misguided as an open discussion could limit volatility once tapering begins. Please see last week’s Bank Credit Weekly: Distractions May Drive Markets Near Term for more on this. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the FOMC’s decisions on Wednesday, 27 January.Against this backdrop, almost all of Asia’s bank debt tightened during the week. Improved risk sentiment, the arrest of a stronger US-dollar, EM inflows and country specific announcements drove these results. In particular, the Reserve Bank of India’s proposal to revise the regulatory framework for India’s non-bank finance companies likely had a positive impact on the US-dollar bonds of these institutions.Several Asia-headquartered banks reported earnings as the week ended and into the weekend. Asia bank earnings season is upon us. However, we note that asset quality indicators at many banks greatly underestimate the level of troubled debt within the institution as forbearance measures remain in place in several operating environments. This is driving provisioning costs lower than would be expected in a more normal operating environment. The value of these earnings reports is significantly diminished for credit investors. As such, credit value should remain driven by larger market forces.Market Outlook: The distraction of another set of impeachment proceedings could turn out to be market friendly if it results in more targeted stimulus. Outside of the Washington beltway, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on when the Fed begins to taper its asset purchases. Credit has limited upside in a fast reflation scenario. A slower, more contained, reflation environment could be Emerging Market credit supportive.

Risk Assets Are Supported by a Distracted Congress and Accommodative Fed

Democratic Party control of the Senate has clearly moved the goal posts for fixed income investors. The reflation trade is back. This requires repositioning by bank credit investors.The good news is that the rise in Treasuries is beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially since it is occurring in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Globally, higher net interest margins should follow from the steepening of the U.S. yield curve as excess reserves are allocated into US$ securities. However, the impact on India-headquartered banks may be less as we discuss within.There are two less positive impacts. First, if the rise in rates is a reflection that inflation is expected to return, then this is not duration friendly. In fact, long duration fixed income securities suffered over the last week. Theoretically, credit curves should flatten in response to the yield curve steepening. However, given the enormous level of monetary accommodation over the last nine months, the question then becomes, how much further can spreads tighten? Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario. Second, higher rates will raise the real effective US$ exchange rate. All else equal, a higher real effective US$ exchange rate is dollar positive.  Asia and emerging market (EM) securities could suffer.Against this backdrop, higher risk Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bank bonds outperformed, principally driven by Thailand- and other higher risk China-centric securities on expectations of increased economic activity. Thai banks performed across the credit continuum in Senior Unsecured, Tier 2 and AT1 notes. This seems to be a case of cognitive dissonance which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks. The COVID-19 situation is deteriorating in Thailand and elsewhere. High financial market valuations seem inconsistent with economic activity. A pronounced degradation of asset prices could materialize. Our preference is to fade the Thai-bank rally.France’s central bank noted that systemic risk may rise over the coming months due to high corporate debt and the current round of Covid-19 lockdowns. The regulator stated that a significant rise in defaults could occur in a slow economic recovery. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bnp-paribas-capital-forbearance-and-cds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46684" rel="noopener">BNP Paribas: Capital, Forbearance and CDS</a> for our assessment of this situation.In addition, we note that<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> set a high bar for balance sheet clean-up by announcing a 50% increase in loan loss provisions for COVID-19. We would not be surprised to see additional healthy increases in loan loss provisioning. In fact, credit investors should be concerned if there are limited additional provisions taken. US banks kick-off the global bank earnings season on Friday.Market Outlook: Absent another behavioral lapse by the US President, ebullience over the prospects of additional stimulus spending should continue to positively impact the markets. Another lapse by the US President could see a temporary rise in demand for safe-haven assets. Eventually, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on how the Fed reacts. In this environment, artificially engineered credit costs may come back to hurt bank investors. Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario and duration is not your friend at this point in the cycle.

Democratic Party control of the Senate has clearly moved the goal posts for fixed income investors. The reflation trade is back. This requires repositioning by bank credit investors.The good news is that the rise in Treasuries is beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially since it is occurring in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Globally, higher net interest margins should follow from the steepening of the U.S. yield curve as excess reserves are allocated into US$ securities. However, the impact on India-headquartered banks may be less as we discuss within.There are two less positive impacts. First, if the rise in rates is a reflection that inflation is expected to return, then this is not duration friendly. In fact, long duration fixed income securities suffered over the last week. Theoretically, credit curves should flatten in response to the yield curve steepening. However, given the enormous level of monetary accommodation over the last nine months, the question then becomes, how much further can spreads tighten? Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario. Second, higher rates will raise the real effective US$ exchange rate. All else equal, a higher real effective US$ exchange rate is dollar positive.  Asia and emerging market (EM) securities could suffer.Against this backdrop, higher risk Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bank bonds outperformed, principally driven by Thailand- and other higher risk China-centric securities on expectations of increased economic activity. Thai banks performed across the credit continuum in Senior Unsecured, Tier 2 and AT1 notes. This seems to be a case of cognitive dissonance which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks. The COVID-19 situation is deteriorating in Thailand and elsewhere. High financial market valuations seem inconsistent with economic activity. A pronounced degradation of asset prices could materialize. Our preference is to fade the Thai-bank rally.France’s central bank noted that systemic risk may rise over the coming months due to high corporate debt and the current round of Covid-19 lockdowns. The regulator stated that a significant rise in defaults could occur in a slow economic recovery. Please see BNP Paribas: Capital, Forbearance and CDS for our assessment of this situation.In addition, we note thatCommerzbank AG (CBK GR) set a high bar for balance sheet clean-up by announcing a 50% increase in loan loss provisions for COVID-19. We would not be surprised to see additional healthy increases in loan loss provisioning. In fact, credit investors should be concerned if there are limited additional provisions taken. US banks kick-off the global bank earnings season on Friday.Market Outlook: Absent another behavioral lapse by the US President, ebullience over the prospects of additional stimulus spending should continue to positively impact the markets. Another lapse by the US President could see a temporary rise in demand for safe-haven assets. Eventually, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on how the Fed reacts. In this environment, artificially engineered credit costs may come back to hurt bank investors. Credit only has limited upside in the current reflation scenario and duration is not your friend at this point in the cycle.

Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts

Thailand

TMB Bank Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services. The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, and investment banking services to its customers throughout Thailand.  It also has branches in Hong Kong, Laos, and Cayman Island.

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TMB Bank PCL (TMB-R TB)

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

The SET has commenced a market consultation on the proposed changes to make its indices free float market cap weighted. We look at the impact on...

Brian Freitas

Thai Banks – Golden

Thai banks are leveraged to a re-opening of the country to tourism and can benefit at the same time from a newly proposed NPL warehouse scheme.

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Credit Compass: Credit Tourist May Vacate if Real Fundamentals Do Not Catch-Up

Credit tourists may vacate if economic growth and real credit fundaments are not delivered. The gap between credit spreads and fundamentals is...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Risk Assets Are Supported by a Distracted Congress and Accommodative Fed

Declining odds on a large US federal stimulus package likely arrested US-dollar strength. A slower, more contained, reflation environment could...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts

Fixed income goal posts were clearly moved by Democratic Party control of the Senate. Credit has limited upside in the current reflation scenario....

Hank Calenti, CFA

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