Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 22 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> completed the acquisition of a combined 63.45% interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a> for approximately RM2.63 billion (IDR8.72 trillion).</li>
<li>Today, Axiata announced that the mandatory tender offer (MTO) runs from 30 August to 28 September. The MTO price is IDR4,800 with no minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>At the current price of IDR4,740 per share, the gross and annualised spread for a mid-October payment is 1.3% and 9.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


On 22 June, Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) and XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) completed the acquisition of a combined 63.45% interest in Link Net (LINK IJ) for approximately RM2.63 billion (IDR8.72 trillion).
Today, Axiata announced that the mandatory tender offer (MTO) runs from 30 August to 28 September. The MTO price is IDR4,800 with no minimum acceptance condition.
At the current price of IDR4,740 per share, the gross and annualised spread for a mid-October payment is 1.3% and 9.1%, respectively.


Link Net’s MTO of IDR4,800 from Axiata Open from 30 August

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ql-resources-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11221:1" rel="noopener">Ql Resources (QLG MK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hartalega-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10230:1" rel="noopener">Hartalega Holdings (HART MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 2.87% and the impact of passive flows is larger on the potential adds as compared to the potential deletes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3954:1" rel="noopener">Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK)</a> is a close add and there could be changes over the next few months as we approach the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>



AMMB Holdings (AMM MK) and Ql Resources (QLG MK) could replace Hartalega Holdings (HART MK) and Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) at the December rebalance.
One way turnover is estimated at 2.87% and the impact of passive flows is larger on the potential adds as compared to the potential deletes.

Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) is a close add and there could be changes over the next few months as we approach the end of the review period.


KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: The Gloves Could Come Off

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> completed the acquisition of a combined 66.03% interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a> at IDR4,800 per share. </li>
<li>Axiata will disclose the details of the MTO in due course. We think that the MTO opens on 7 July with the earliest possible close of 11 August. </li>
<li>At the last close, the gross and annualised spread of a 19 August payment is 3.7% and 23.7%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) and XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) completed the acquisition of a combined 66.03% interest in Link Net (LINK IJ) at IDR4,800 per share. 
Axiata will disclose the details of the MTO in due course. We think that the MTO opens on 7 July with the earliest possible close of 11 August. 
At the last close, the gross and annualised spread of a 19 August payment is 3.7% and 23.7%, respectively.


Link Net MTO Set to Launch as Axiata Completes Stake Acquisition

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, and 10 new join the fray</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has gained 80% versus MSCI Asia ex Japan's 63%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, and 10 new join the fray
Since its inception, the portfolio has gained 80% versus MSCI Asia ex Japan's 63%


Malaysia

TIME dotCom Berhad through its subsidiaries, provides fixed-line telecommunication services such as data and voice, international bandwidth provision which includes submarine cable and data centre business.

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Time Dotcom Bhd (TDC MK)

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Link Net’s MTO of IDR4,800 from Axiata Open from 30 August

The MTO of IDR4,800 per share runs from 30 August to 28 September. At the current price of IDR4,740 per share, the annualised spread for a mid...

Arun George

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: The Gloves Could Come Off

AMMB and QL Resources could replace Hartalega and Top Glove in the KLCI at the December rebalance. Westports is a close add, while Top Glove needs...

Brian Freitas

Link Net MTO Set to Launch as Axiata Completes Stake Acquisition

We think that the MTO opens on 7 July with the earliest possible close of 11 August. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread of a 19...

Arun George

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 37

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, and 10 stocks have...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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