Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer <em>every day</em> since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.2% as of Jan 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 7.1ppt week-on-week, led by financials, materials, health care and offset by information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China Com Cons, SMIC, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.2% as of Jan 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by 7.1ppt week-on-week, led by financials, materials, health care and offset by information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China Com Cons, SMIC, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 19th): Haier Smart, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, CR Group, CCCC

<ul>
<li>Yesterday during the day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> shareholders approved the Scheme and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a> shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.</li>
<li>NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.</li>
<li>But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday during the day, Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) shareholders approved the Scheme and Livent (LTHM US) shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.
NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.
But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.


Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

<ul>
<li>The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. </li>
<li>It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is "good risk arb risk"</li>
<li>But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-ake-au-lthm-us-merger-update-much-more-than-meets-the-eye" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. 
It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is "good risk arb risk"
But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details here.


Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. </li>
<li>
<strong>Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.</strong> 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. </li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. 

Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts. 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

China

Tianqi Lithium Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells lithium products. The Company produces lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, lithium hydroxide, and other related products. Tianqi Lithium markets its products worldwide.

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Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

AH Premia narrowed more on liquid narrow premia than on less liquid and wide premia. This is a new development. Energy and Utilities saw Hs rebound...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 19th): Haier Smart, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, CR Group, CCCC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

The Allkem/Livent deal has now been approved by shareholders of both companies. Index providers have started to make announcements. There are LOTS...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

Allkem/Livent shareholder meetings are tomorrow. Sentiment is mixed but this likely gets done. And if not, Allkem is likely the one to own. Once...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

A/H Premiums reached their highest average (arithmetic - not the HS Index) in a year on Monday. And then turned. Overseas liquidation feels...

Travis Lundy

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